Article

Steelers Vs. Raiders Prediction

By Alex Kozora

Posted on September 24, 2023 at 8:30 am

As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys to the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in tonight’s Week Three game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Las Vegas Raiders.

My prediction is at the bottom.

THE STEELERS WILL WIN IF…

1. Their Stoppable Force Beats The Raiders Moveable Object

That’s what I call the Steelers’ run game against the Raiders’ run defense. Pittsburgh hasn’t run it well, the Raiders haven’t been effective stopping the ground game. All week, I’ve harped on Pittsburgh needing to run it with success. Failing isn’t an option. It’s a front and scheme (Vegas stuck in their 4-2-5) that should be attacked. The Steelers must come out heavy and impose their will, their entire offseason plan and blueprint.

2. They Use Playaction Near The Goal Line

The Raiders are aggressive near the goal line and that makes them vulnerable to playaction. Buffalo worked it effectively last week, getting receivers and tight ends open in the end zone. Pat Freiermuth has been quiet two games in but this could be a game where he excels. Maybe Connor Heyward gets open in the flat or corner of the end zone, too. Of course, the Steelers have to get into the red zone first, something they’ve done only twice in two games.

3. Defense Creates Negativity

That’s run and pass game. The Raiders are in a similar predicament as the Steelers, a team that needs to run the ball but unable to. Josh Jacobs’ longest run of the year is only seven yards and he’s averaging an ugly 1.7 yards per carry. To their credit, QB Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t been sacked this season, the only team in the league who can say that. Pittsburgh’s pass rush, obviously, needs to get home and change that while containing Jacobs against the run and force him to run laterally, just as they did last year. Of course, that was with Cam Heyward.

THE STEELERS WILL LOSE IF…

1. WR Jakobi Meyers Has A Big Day

Last year, Pittsburgh beat Las Vegas because they shut down the Raiders’ top two weapons: RB Josh Jacobs and WR Davante Adams. That figures to be their plan of attack tonight. But the Raiders have added reinforcements and have a true No. 2 outside receivers in Jakobi Meyers. Signed over from the New England Patriots, he posted a 9/81/2 line in Week One before missing Week Two with a concussion. But Meyers is recovered and will play. There’s other options for this team to throw to and the Steelers’ corners will have to step up.

Watch out for slot WR Hunter Renfrow, too. He’s only caught one pass this year but could be a thorn in the Steelers’ side.

2. Pittsburgh’s Defense Gives Up The Middle Of The Field

Bouncing off that point, the Raiders’ pass game concepts are sound. Far better than Pittsburgh’s. They use vertical divide concepts to put defenders in conflict. Had some opportunities to hit against the Bills and Garoppolo just didn’t see them. I imagine it’s not a mistake he’s going to make twice. Wouldn’t play much Cover 2 against these guys. Worried about them hitting something over the top.

3. Vegas Proves To Have Stronger Special Teams

Last week, the Steelers’ strong special teams (pair of Chris Boswell 50-plus yard field goals, couple of great Pressley Harvin III punts) to win field position and propel them over the Cleveland Browns. The shoe can’t go on the other foot this weekend.

The Raiders have two strong specialists in kicker Daniel Carlson (whose 47 yard OT winner in 2021 put the Steelers in the playoffs) and the always-underrated A.J. Cole, who has been at or around 50 yards per punt the last three seasons. He sits at 49.5 through two weeks this year. Both teams will be looking to flip the field and help their sputtering offenses.