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Steelers Stats Study: It All Starts On First Down

Steelers PFF Grades rushing success rates

Today I wanted to piggyback off a great discussion on a recent Terrible Podcast, and that is first downs and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers offense has struggled to get things going the first two games of the season, and it all starts on first down. Let’s look at their success rates (40 percent of the needed yardage, or six yards gained) compared to the rest of the league through two games (NOTE: spikes, kneels, aborted plays removed):

Pittsburgh ranks 27th in the NFL currently, with just 45.2 percent of their first down plays on offense being successful. The run game is the main reason for this, as discussed on the podcast, with an abysmal 29th rank and 38.5 success rate on just 13 attempts. Only five successful first-down runs through two games, man. Running back Najee Harris encouragingly has two 15+ runs on first down, but the success rates emphasize how the poor run game is being stuffed otherwise.

In all situations, Pittsburgh has just 96 total rushing yards and 31 attempts, each ranking 31st in the league. Considering the identity the team built as a physical team that wants to run the ball, far from acceptable in both quality and quantity. This must improve, and I hope the offensive line can step up and get into a groove against the easier upcoming schedule, or we’re in for some more tough sledding this season.

Passing on first down has been more frequent than my liking, a much higher 29 attempts. The blowout loss in week one is a main factor in this, along with the low sample size as well. They have fared a bit better, ranking 21st in successful first down plays at 48.3 percent. This equates to 14 successful pass plays on first down, including both touchdowns this season, WR Diontae Johnson’s explosive catch and run in week one, but one of Pickett’s interceptions as well.

Pittsburgh has opened each game with a pass, encouragingly setting up second and manageable early. Both opening drives were three and outs though, and all six plays were dropbacks including a sack. This is confusing, and a change I’d like to see. The Steelers are getting in ideal second and third-down situations out of the gate, but avoiding the run to open the game.

If they can come out with the “bully ball” attitude many have labeled them as with success, it would hopefully create more momentum to start the game and feed into more success throughout in my opinion. Other than better execution from the players, our own Alex Kozora highlighted a great idea schematically, pulling guards and more gap schemes that would actually fit the identity they have created.

Knock on wood we see some of this as the run game hopefully gets on the right track, which should help the entire team and QB Kenny Pickett to right some early season struggles.

Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.

 

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