A hot topic we’ve been emphasizing at Steelers Depot is an issue with negative plays killing the Pittsburgh Steelers offense. Today, I wanted to look at and provide some more data context to these struggles that will hopefully improve moving forward. While I’m at it, I’ll include numbers for the defense as well.
First, let’s look at total negative plays (<= 0 yards) on all pass and run plays for NFL offenses, with no plays, spikes, and kneels removed:
Right away we see Pittsburgh ranks dead last in total negative play rate, at a whopping 44.1 percent. The Steelers and New York Jets are the only two offenses with a rate above 40 percent. Of the bottom nine ranks, Pittsburgh is the only team with multiple wins, highlighting how the team has luckily overcome this issue.
Our own Alex Kozora highlighted the prominent problem is the run game, also ranking last in the NFL through three weeks. They are the only offense currently with a negative play rate in the run game of 30-plus, 32.2 percent by my calculations, which is over six percent worse than any other team. We did see a positive trend last week, rushing for 105 yards against Las Vegas, but their negative run rate was still a low 24th rank in the NFL. Must improve.
The pass game hasn’t been much better, with 50.5 percent of their passes resulting in negative plays, which ranks 28th in the league. Pittsburgh is one of just five teams at 50-plus, and the only teams that are worse are the Falcons, Bears, Titans, and Jets. None of them have elite passers at the moment, and New York is really struggling sans Aaron Rodgers. Very discouraging as we gauge QB Kenny Pickett’s potential as the franchise guy moving forward. Hopefully both improve fast, with last games slight positive trend (T-24th) needing to progress greatly.
As promised, let’s see how this looks for NFL defenses to date:
The Steelers defense fares much better as expected, ranking eighth in the NFL at 35 percent. This gives specific context to how important the unit has been to will this team to their victories.
Against the run, Pittsburgh ranks tenth in the NFL at creating negative plays, at 20.7 percent. They have been very feast of famine though, allowing 455 rushing yards through three games, which ties for 30th with the Bengals. Their performance last game was an encouraging step, limiting RB Josh Jacobs (led the NFL in rushing in 2022) and the Raiders to only 69 rushing yards.
The pass defense has created splash as well, with a 44.9 percent negative play rate that ranks 14th. The highlight has been Pittsburgh’s league leading 13 sacks, with edge rusher T.J. Watt leading the charge and the NFL with six through three games. Backup edge rusher Markus Golden also deserves props here, second on the team with two on limited opportunities.
Watt also ties for first in the NFL with two fumble recoveries, including one to the house, and second in the NFL in tackles for loss (five). As a team, Pittsburgh’s has four fumble recoveries (T-second), 19 passes defensed (T-third), 19 tackles for loss (T-fifth) and four interceptions (T-fifth). Most of the latter came last game, from CB’s Levi Wallace (two) and Patrick Peterson (one), with each having a team leading four passes defensed (T-fifth in NFL), along with edge rusher Alex Highsmith’s electric pick six on the first play of the Browns game.
Speaking of recent opponents, Cleveland has the best rate by far currently, and the 49ers at sixth, which may help some to feel better about Pittsburgh’s struggles on offense in their first two games. Seeing where the Raiders land (29th) also emphasizes the expected positive trend on offense in week three, but still much less than desirable. The Houston Texans are on deck in week four, who rank dead last in total negative play rates on defense.
If Pittsburgh’s offense struggles in this one, major red flags will be hoisted on what this team can be in 2023. If they can trend closer to average in the coming weeks, it will maximize the strength of the defense, and the ultimate goal of the postseason.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
