Perspective Of An Average Steelers Fan: Are We Too Optimistic?

Fans Overly Optimistic?

The Steelers’ home opener is fast approaching, and I wonder if Pittsburgh fans are overly optimistic for this season. I find myself caught up in the excitement. Kenny Pickett enters his second season, first as a team captain, the clear leader of the offense. Omar Khan worked his magic during the NFL draft and signed key free agents. Then after strengthening position groups and building depth throughout the roster, he made a couple trades to improve position in the next couple drafts. Mike Tomlin led an almost flawless preseason, developing individual players and enhancing team play through a combination of physical practices and fully utilizing the roster as needed in three preseason games. The one blemish was the loss of rookie cornerback Cory Trice Jr to a knee injury.

Alex Kozora outlined 10 things he believes about the 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers. Most of the items show the arrow point upward after the Steelers managed a 9-8 record in 2022.

We have a Steelers Town Hall on Clubhouse every Monday night. This past Monday, a few of us predicted the Steelers’ regular-season record. I was going to predict the Steelers going 10-7 this year. But as I went over the schedule, a 3-3 record in the division seems reasonable.

Steelers’ 2023 Schedule and Probable Quarterbacks

I looked at the rest of the opponents, including the probable quarterbacks Pittsburgh will face:

Outside the AFC North

Outside of the AFC North, the toughest opponent appears to be San Francisco. Many of the teams and quarterbacks the Steelers face are vulnerable. The previous season’s records can be deceiving since many of these teams have improved. But the Steelers have improved their overall roster tremendously. I ended up revising my prediction upward to 12-5. Everyone on the Town Hall predicted the Steelers 11-6 or 12-5.

I also have a monthly coffee with Steelers Depot regular reader, ManRayX. He also believes the Steelers have a good chance at 11 or 12 wins in 2023. We did acknowledge the random variable of injuries. We know statistically that injuries will occur during the season that may impact outcomes. However, we cannot predict who may be injured or for how long. So, with that caveat and as the current situation stands, the Steelers’ schedule looks ripe for exploitation.

Can the Steelers Keep Pace?

Assuming Pittsburgh stays relatively healthy, can the Steelers keep pace in the AFC? One hurdle to consider is the overall strength of the AFC North. A preseason ESPN article asserts that all four teams have “legitimate” playoff aspirations and that the AFC North is the “NFL’s deepest and best overall division.” Baltimore has a new offensive coordinator and signed or drafted offensive weapons that included Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers. This makes Lamar Jackson especially dangerous if defenses crowd the line of scrimmage to stop his running. Jackson can now pull up from a run and pass down the field to several swift receivers in man-on-man situations.

And don’t count Cleveland out just yet. The Browns hired former Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz to improve “their underperforming — but talented — defense.” They boast running stalwart Nick Chubb. But a lot will depend on whether Deshaun Watson can regain his Pro Bowl form from 2018-2020. If he does, watch out. And of course, the Cincinnati Bengals with Joe Burrow have won the AFC North for the past two seasons. They lost some key defenders but remain the king until toppled.

Caesar’s Sportsbook favored a Bengals repeat (+125), followed by the Ravens (+275) and then Cleveland (+380). Pittsburgh had the worst odds (+500) of winning the division. Sounds daunting but…

Pittsburgh Invested

But Pittsburgh invested in their offensive line and drafted TE Darnell Washington to bolster the running attack of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Kenny Pickett has had a season to connect with multiple receiving threats, including Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Calvin Austin III, and Allen Robinson II, not to mention versatile Connor Heyward. On defense, three ILB free agent signings along with draft pick Keanu Benton should address the weakness against runs up the middle last season. Markus Golden and Nick Herbig provide great depth at EDGE to pressure opposing quarterbacks. The secondary has seen significant change with veteran Patrick Peterson and rookie Joey Porter Jr. The key for Pittsburgh is avoiding turnovers and scoring points following takeaways. I believe the Steelers have a solid chance to go at least 3-3 in the division.

The Sports Books gave Pittsburgh an over/under win total of 8.5. That’s right on the cusp of a losing record, something the Steelers have not suffered since 2003. And never on head coach Mike Tomlin’s watch. With all the improvements to the roster and the experience gained by a talented young team, I just can’t see a losing season in the cards.

Rest of Schedule Weak

Even if the Steelers were to slip to 2-4 within the division, the rest of the schedule, with the exception of San Francisco and Seattle, looks weak. The home opener features Kenny Pickett, the first quarterback selected in the 2022 draft, versus Brock Purdy, the last quarterback and, in fact, the last player drafted in 2022. Nick Bosa remains unsigned at this time and TE George Kittle is dealing with a groin injury. But Mike Tomlin is wisely planning for both playing in the game. As he pointed out, T.J. Watt had a strong game after signing just days before a season a few years ago. This game is a great barometer for whether the Steelers are on the rise.

Raiders, Texans, Rams, and Jaguars

The Raiders have a fragile Jimmy Garoppolo behind center. Rookie C.J. Stroud will start behind the damaged Houston Texans offensive line (six placed on IR). They traded for center Kendrick Green to provide depth. The Rams are coming off a 5-12 campaign, and the question is if they added enough talent to help QB Matt Stafford? The game is on the West Coast but after a bye week. Jacksonville will be dangerous, as Trevor Lawrence improved from his rookie year. Calvin Ridley a nice target. Jags pundits predict Lawrence breaks the franchise records for touchdown passes and passing yards. But if the defense can stifle him, the Jaguars’ pass defense may be vulnerable if the Steelers cannot gain yardage on the ground.

Titans and Packers

The Titans come to Pittsburgh on a short week. (I hate Thursday Night Football). Derrick Henry is their main weapon with Ryan Tannehill a journeyman quarterback. The Steelers’ new inside linebackers will be tested here. If they pass, I like the Steelers’ odds. Then the third home game in a row is against Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers is a Jet. The Steelers get to go after Jordan Love. He’s only started one game prior to this season. But by this time, he’ll have eight more games as an NFL starting quarterback. Teryl Austin will have some extra days to examine Love’s tape to determine how to take him apart.

Cardinals, Patriots, Colts, and Seattle Sandwich

Then in early December, it’s the Cardinals. Josh Dobbs could be the starting quarterback in Pittsburgh for Arizona. Love him, hope he goes into coaching someday. But is he really a huge threat at quarterback against the Steelers defense? Then another short week, and the Patriots are in Pittsburgh. (Did I mention I hate Thursday Night Football?) Mac Jones comes to town and whatever scheme Bill Belichick has cooked up. But again, this is a winnable game. Then a mid-December trip to Indianapolis. The Colts have been in disarray. And rookie Anthony Richardson is scheduled to start. He has a huge arm and is athletic. But he can’t do it by himself. And then the final three tough stretch of games: Bengals and Ravens with Seattle sandwiched in-between. These three games could determine whether the Steelers finish 12-5 or 9-8 because outside their division, the Steelers should win eight or nine games if they do not play down to their competition and if the improvement we saw at training camp and in preseason games are not a mirage.

CONCLUSION

I believe Steelers fans have good reasons to be optimistic for the 2023 season. The organization has taken steps to strengthen the roster at almost every position group. Kenny Pickett has intangible leadership qualities. And there are a lot of weapons for both offense and defense. Special teams may take some time to gel since there is a large turnover. But a rejuvenated Chris Boswell and consistent Pressley Harvin III are something to look forward to. Plus, the punt return potential of Calvin Austin III may compensate with favorable field position. However, all these improvements in Pittsburgh have not been accomplished in a vacuum. Other teams, with the possible exception of Arizona, have taken steps to improve too.

I’m sticking with my 12-5 predictions for the Steelers. Regardless, my expectation is a playoff berth. I gave the Steelers a pass last year due to Pickett becoming the starting quarterback five games into the season. This year, the defense has the capability to keep games close and even score some points of its own. But Pickett must perform in key situations, score off turnovers and once in the red zone. And avoid turning the ball over. If he does that, then any optimism placed in the Steelers is completely reasonable. Here we go.

Your Song Selection

I always like to include a bit of music. All our optimism is riding with the latest edition of the Pittsburgh Steelers. They may not win a seventh Lombardi for the city of Pittsburgh this year. But if you want to get to heaven, you got to raise a little hell. Hoping this team raises a ruckus in the NFL. Here is If You Want to Get to Heaven by the Ozark Mountain Daredevils.