The start of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2023 season is on the horizon, days away from opening up against the San Francisco 49ers. Before the weekend gets going, I’ve gone over some of the things – to steal a line from Peter King – I think I think about the Pittsburgh Steelers heading into the year. Some of my strongest feelings though I’ll save my record prediction for Friday’s Terrible Podcast.
Presented in no particular order, 10 expectations I have for the Steelers’ upcoming year.
1. Najee Harris Will Have A Strong Season
I’m as big a fan of Jaylen Warren as anyone. Love the player, love the story. But Harris will be the Steelers’ lead back this season and he’ll have a good year. Warren’s presence means that Harris won’t have the volume he did as a rookie, where he rarely left the field, But healthy, fresh, and behind a better offensive line, he’ll be a far more efficient player.
Expect his yards per carry to be in the 4s for the first time of his career. And he’ll have more than the one run of 20-plus yards like he did last season. A lot more. The receptions won’t be off the charts but there will be enough checkdowns to get him involved in the passing game. Better talent, more athleticism, increased continuity will make this team more effective on the ground.
2. George Pickens Won’t Be Feast/Famine
And I mean this in a positive way. Last year, Pickens either hit a home run or struck out. Games where he made his sensational catch downfield or was taken away by defenses and did little to directly impact the game. That’s not going to happen this year.
Diontae Johnson he is not but Pickens has shown this summer that he’s a more well-rounded player compared to his rookie year. He runs a fuller route tree, he creates more space underneath, and he’s a bigger YAC threat. Pickens will still catch his fair share of insane downfield passes but that won’t be the only arrow in his quiver.
3. Pittsburgh’s Defense Will Return To Its 50-plus Sack Ways
Granted, this one feels closer to a layup than the others. Even without T.J. Watt for nearly half the season last year, Pittsburgh ended the year with 40 sacks (racking up a bunch in the finale against Cleveland, an annual tradition). With his good health, far better EDGE depth, additions of names like NT Keeanu Benton, and maybe something from blitz-capable off-ball players like ILBs Kwon Alexander and Elandon Roberts along with NCB Desmond King, Pittsburgh’s pass rush should return to familiar form.
4. Isaac Seumalo And James Daniels Will Be One Of The NFL’s Top Guard Duos
I’m really excited about these two. With all of Omar Khan’s upgrades this offseason, adding Seumalo to fill that left guard spot is the best thing he did. A sound scheme fit, he can move people in the run game and anchor in pass protection with athleticism to help in the screen game. Daniels is far more comfortable in his second year in the system and hit the ground running this summer.
He and Seumalo will be the team’s best guard pairing since Ramon Foster and David DeCastro and could even come close to Kendall Simmons and Alan Faneca levels. If healthy, they’re going to be really good.
5. Connor Heyward Throws A Touchdown Pass
Sneaking a quirky one in here. Heyward did everything for the Steelers in training camp so why not throw a touchdown pass, too? Heyward actually did that in training camp in the team’s annual goal line drill, taking a jet run and hitting fellow TE Pat Freiermuth for a wide-open score. Pittsburgh ran this concept last year with WR Chase Claypool hitting FB Derek Watt and I can see the Steelers busting it out again.
6. Steelers Will Still Feel Need For One More High-End DL
Ok, they can’t all be positive. All camp, I talked up the depth and competition along this group and that was completely true. There’s a reason why they kept seven and why they signed NT Breiden Fehoko to the practice squad. At the same time, I recognize the lack of high-ceiling players here. Isaiahh Loudermilk, Montravius Adams, and Armon Watts aren’t those guys. DeMarvin Leal is in his second year and still has lots to learn. He must develop more as a pass rusher.
The three in that bucket are Cam Heyward, Larry Ogunjobi, and Keeanu Benton. But Ogunjobi has struggled to stay healthy, including this summer, and Benton is still just a rookie. All told, the team needs Heyward to stay healthy and play at his elite-level self. And as the Steelers near the point where they have to seriously think about finding his heir, that feeling of lacking top-end talent will come into focus by the end of this year.
7. Early Secondary/Defensive Growing Pains
Another negative defensive mark. In some respects, the defense got better. Inside linebacker looks much improved compared to a season ago. And there’s talent at all three levels. But there’s a lot of “new” here with nearly a dozen additions starting or playing key roles (Keeanu Benton, Nick Herbig/Markus Golden, Kwon Alexander/Elandon Roberts/Cole Holcomb, Patrick Peterson, Keanu Neal, Joey Porter Jr., Desmond King II) that should make this unit better off in the long run.
But it could come at the cost of early growing pains. They won’t look terrible but there might be enough miscommunication and self-enforced errors that’ll remind you how much turnover there’s been.
8. Season Comes Down To Week 18 in Baltimore
Because of course it will. The regular-season finale is in Baltimore and there’s a high probability this game will mean a lot for both sides. In a competitive AFC and AFC North, the winner here could earn a tiebreaker or be the final boost either side needs to make it into the playoffs. Ideally, the Steelers go 4-2 against the AFC North. If they can do that, their odds of advancing to the playoffs go through the roof.
9. Chris Boswell Returns To Form
Despite a down year, I don’t sense there’s significant concern about Boswell entering 2023. But for the record, I don’t have much either. Just as he did in 2019 after his terrible 2018, a healthy Boz is an excellent one. He battled through injury last year and while he’s getting older and kickers are fickle creatures, it should be a much better 2023.
10. Pittsburgh’s Slot Production Actually Exists This Year
Something that didn’t happen last year. WR Allen Robinson II won’t post gaudy numbers but will play a key role on third down. And he might do more damage near the goal line than you think. WR Calvin Austin III will be a shot in the arm this offense was missing last year. Neither will be the focal points of this passing game, there will be quiet and loud games, but it’ll be a stark contrast from the utter lack of production of a year ago.
BONUS: Pittsburgh Won’t Suck At Screens
I’m not saying they’re going to be a great screen team. But it won’t look like two toddlers walking in a trench coat every time this team wants to dial up a middle screen to Najee Harris. The line has more continuity, Isaac Seumalo brings more athleticism, and in camp and limited preseason action, the screen game just felt more cohesive. You won’t cover your eyes every time this team runs one this season.
