The Steelers are now back at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex, facing down a long regular season that looks a lot more promising given how things have gone leading up to it. Finishing just above .500 last year, they anticipate being able to compete with any team in the league this season with second-year QB Kenny Pickett leading the way.
They’ve done a great deal to address what they identified as their shortcomings during the offseason, which included addressing the offensive and defensive lines as well as the secondary and the inside linebacker room, which is nearly entirely different from last year. The results have been positive so far.
Even well into the regular season and beyond, there are going to be plenty of questions that need answered. When will the core rookies get to play, or even start? Is the depth sufficient where they upgraded? Can they stand toe-to-toe with the Bengals and the other top teams in the league? We’ll try to frame the conversation in relevant ways as long as you stick with us throughout the season, as we have for many years.
Question: How many games can the Steelers win this year by scoring 23 or fewer points?
Much has been made about the improvements in the Steelers offense in the last game, but that has a lot to do with just how bad they were in the first two games. They scored a combined 20 points in the first two weeks, so 23 points looked like what the Miami Dolphins did to the Denver Broncos in comparison.
But let’s be serious. How many games would 23 points win for the Steelers this year? First of all, they only scored 23 or more points five times last year. They did go 4-1, including the opening tie that would have been a loss if not or a blocked extra point at the end of regulation.
For another data point, they allowed 23 or more points five times as well. They lost every single one of those games. And so far in 2023, they are allowing an average of 23.3 points per game. The 30 points put up by the San Francisco 49ers in the opener is the current outlier.
They did allow 22 points and 18 points in the past two games. Two defensive touchdowns against the Cleveland Browns allowed the Steelers to put up 26 total that week, which was enough to win on the strength of the offense’s 13 points.
Their schedule might not be a murderer’s row going forward outside of the division, but there are definitely some games where they might have to put up points to win. And this is a defense that relies on its Pro Bowlers playing like Pro Bowlers. They are already down Cameron Heyward for a while.
Now, 23 points is a decent amount of points in most weeks. You should win most of the games in which you put up that much, provided you have a competent defense. But this is a defense that is relying on opportunism right now, and that comes and goes. So I think it’s a real question right now how many games the Steelers can win if their offensive ceiling is 23.
