The Pittsburgh Steelers are a different team with T.J. Watt on the field. That was evident last year with the team winning just one out of the seven games he missed due to a partially torn pec. NFL.com analytics writer Cynthia Frelund’s model backs that idea up, as she has Watt as the fourth-highest defender when it comes to win shares, which is “built around the number of times a player impacts first downs and touchdowns that lead to wins or losses, either by creating first downs and touchdowns on offense or by preventing them on defense.”
“My models believe the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year will return to form after an injury-abbreviated 2022 campaign, partially because he’s just such a balanced defender when it comes to all of the metrics that are linked to edge-rushing success. Despite totaling just 5.5 sacks over 10 games last season, Watt still ranked top five in burst, contact win rate and fatigue. He’s a relentless QB hunter who just ticks off all the boxes,” Frelund writes. Per her model, Watt’s win share is 2.29.
Watt had 22.5 sacks two years ago, tying the NFL record. He only had 5.5 last year as he battled through injury, but when he’s healthy he should be able to amass 15+ pretty easily. He’s one of the most dangerous pass rushers in football, and he also had two interceptions last year and is incredibly talented at swatting balls down at the line of scrimmage.
Watt’s a game-changer, and the Steelers need him on the field. He and Alex Highsmith are a formidable duo off the edge, and with Cameron Heyward and Larry Ogunjobi inside, the Steelers should once again be among the league leaders in sacks.
With an offense set to potentially emerge in 2023 and a defense that’s among the league’s best, the Steelers could be a dangerous team this season. A big part of that is going to be staying healthy, particularly for Watt. Even after the torn pec, he admitted he wasn’t fully healthy upon his return. Now that he’s healthy, he should get back to his normal game-wrecking self. If he stays healthy, he’ll have another DPOY-caliber season.
He helps make everyone around him better, and the pass rush can help a hungry secondary pick off more passes, as well. With guys like Patrick Peterson, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Damontae Kazee, along with Levi Wallace all possessing really good ball skills, it’s going to be an opportunistic unit. That could help set up the offense in prime field position, and it’s a key reason why Mike Florio thinks the defense could help make the offense into one of the better units in the league.
We’ll get the first taste of what Watt can do on September 10 when the Steelers take on the San Francisco 49ers Week One at Acrisure Stadium.
