There was a recent report that the camps of Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert and Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow were engaged in a game of chicken of sorts—not to see who could hold out from doing a deal the longest, but just trying to be the one who goes last, in the hopes that it would improve their market power.
Well, as shouldn’t be a surprise, Herbert went first, signing a new five-year contract extension worth $52.5 million per season, $262.5 million in total. While it surpasses Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson as the largest new-money value on a deal in NFL history, it’s important to keep in mind that Herbert is still under contract for two more years, so some of that new money—the signing bonus—is actually being paid now. In other words, it’s hard to do an apples-to-apples value comparison.
What we can compare is whatever deal Burrow signs with the Bengals, which should happen within the next few weeks, if not even within the next few days. Now that Herbert’s deal is out of the way and the benchmark has been set, coming to terms should be relatively easy, as surely most of the finer points have already been worked through and it’s only a matter of coming up with the final figure that should reset the market at the position—slightly.
The first-overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Burrow has led the Bengals to five postseason wins over the past two seasons, including two conference finals appearances in a row. He nearly helped Cincinnati claim its first Super Bowl title at the end of the 2021 season if not for a stellar game-winning drive orchestrated by Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp for the Los Angeles Rams.
While Herbert edges out Burrow in some production metrics, including interception rate, it’s important to keep in mind that he has logged more games — 49 to 42. Burrow has the higher completion percentage and touchdown rate, plus the better passer rating, while their yards per game are comparable, and he also has the advantage in quarterback rating, for whoever might find that valuable.
Herbert has also spent more of his career playing from behind, which has translated to more passing attempts per game, and thus more opportunities to produce stats. He does have 13 career game-winning drives to Burrow’s seven, but…he’s had more opportunities to lead game-winning drives, because Burrow’s Bengals have spent more time leading and winning. The Bengals are 27-17-1 with Burrow starting. The Chargers are 25-24 in Herbert’s career as a starter.
It should be a safe assumption that Burrow’s contract will, for the fourth time this offseason, set a new record for the largest-ever contract as measured by new-money per-year averages, the bar now at $52.5 million for Herbert. The only question is how much higher the bar will be set, and how soon.
