The plan for the Pittsburgh Steelers this season is to ride a dominant run game and smothering defense to wins as they look to return to the playoffs. However, one aspect of this, the dominant defense, is something that has eluded Pittsburgh for almost five years now. The Steelers haven’t held teams under 20 points per game since the 2019 season, but this year they will.
Since the 2019 season when Pittsburgh acquired safety Minkah Fitzpatrick in a trade with the Miami Dolphins, its defense has been the strength of the team. While I do not think the 2023 Steelers defense will be as dominant as 2019 defense was, I do think they can hold teams to under 20 points per game if they stay healthy.
As I said earlier, Pittsburgh’s game plan includes a dominant run game, and when you are running the ball well you chew up clock. Once the Steelers found their identity after the bye week last season, they controlled the time of possession due to having long possessions. In the final nine weeks of the season the Steelers won the time of possession seven times, winning each of those games and never allowing more 17 points in each of those games. In the only two games post-bye week Pittsburgh lost the time of possession, it lost the game, including a 37-30 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.
The final nine games last year saw Pittsburgh’s defense get healthy with the return of superstar pass rusher T.J. Watt and because of that its play improved. Over the entire season when Watt was healthy, Pittsburgh held opponents to only 16.9 points per game. Now throw in an offense that has an identity and a quarterback in Kenny Pickett who is poised to take a second-year leap, Pittsburgh’s defense is ready to return to elite status.
One argument against the Steelers holding their opponents to under 20 points per game is their turnover in the cornerback and linebacker rooms. Pittsburgh is returning only one starter in the two rooms, cornerback Levi Wallace, which could cause problems. But the Steelers’ pass rush featuring Watt and Alex Highsmith should be good enough to make life very difficult for opponent quarterbacks to have time to survey the field and find targets. In addition, rookie Joey Porter Jr. has high potential and by midseason could hit his stride and become a very good cornerback. The cornerback room, while different, has high potential if Porter works out, and with playmaking safeties in Fitzpatrick and Damontae Kazee, the secondary shouldn’t be too bad. Free agent cornerback signing Patrick Peterson, while not in his prime, should also provide a steady hand in the defensive backfield and help Porter grow and become comfortable playing cornerback at the NFL level.
The biggest question mark is the inside linebacking corps, but I think the defensive line should be good enough this year to mask some issues. While Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts aren’t world beaters, they aren’t scrubs either. If the defensive line, with a fully healthy Larry Ogunjobi, can create penetration and not get thrown around, Holcomb and Roberts are fully capable of cleaning up scraps. Look at last year, for example. The inside linebacker play was not great by any means, but once Watt returned from injury the defense was still able to hold teams under 20 points per game. Throw in Ogunjobi having an offseason where he is healthy and the addition of rookie nose tackle Keeanu Benton and life should be made easier for the inside linebacker group.
Finally the biggest reason the Steelers will hold teams under 20 points per game is the fact that they aren’t playing too many elite teams or great quarterbacks this season. Yes, the AFC North does have Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Deshaun Watson, but after Burrow the other quarterbacks either have a question mark or haven’t had success against Pittsburgh. Jackson has historically struggled against the Steelers and Watson is a huge question mark. Now out of division, the Steelers don’t play Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes this year; instead the best quarterbacks out of their division on the schedule are Trevor Lawrence and Geno Smith. While Lawrence is bordering on elite, Smith is good but could take a step back this year. Other than that there are a few rookies like the Houston Texans’ Bryce Young and a few unknowns like the Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love.
Pittsburgh’s 2023 opponent win percentage last season was .470, and last year the team feasted on weaker teams. If the defense stays healthy there is no reason not to expect the same. The Steelers are leaning on their defense once again this season and as long as they stay healthy, they will deliver. While they won’t be the 2008 Steelers, the 2023 Steelers defense will return to elite status as they hold their opponents to under 20 points per game.
