Nearing the end of the series, I wanted to circle back to wide receiver Allen Robinson II, looking at his 2021 season with the Chicago Bears as a pass catcher, following my 2022 receiving and run-blocking studies on him. The goal today is to provide data context to what he was able to provide, along with 2021 Steelers with a minimum of 50 targets, see how that stacked up across the NFL, and compare this information to the study from last season.
Let’s start with routes run and targets, for receivers’ quantity of opportunities:
The first thing that jumps out Is Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson on the top right of the chart, who ranked second in targets (171) and fifth in routes run (598) out of the 89 qualifying players. 2021 was his most targeted season to date, and most productive with 112 catches, 1,195 yards, and nine touchdowns. Johnson was also towards the top of the league last season in usage, with 608 routes run (fourth) and 147 targets (seventh), but his production in quarterback Kenny Pickett’s rookie year was much different: 86 catches, 882 yards, and the painful stat of zero touchdowns. Considering the opportunities should be similar barring injury and more chemistry between him and a more experienced Pickett, I’m in the camp that Johnson will have a bounce-back 2023 season.
Next is former Steeler Chase Claypool, who was just above the league mean in both data points in 2021. He had 478 routes run (31st) and 104 targets (T-30th), which equated to 62 catches, 885 yards, and two touchdowns. His production largely fell off each of his first three seasons, after a nice rookie year that included 11 touchdowns. The Steelers got the second-round pick trade offer hallway through the 2022 season that made the decision to move on easy, and Claypool ended 2022 with the Bears with a stat line of just 46 catches, 451 yards, and one touchdown.
Then we see Robinson II, who was below the mean in both in 2021, with 342 routes run (65th) and 67 targets (60th) in 12 games played, suffering a hamstring injury mid-season that ironically came against Pittsburgh. In his shortened final season with Chicago, he had 38 catches for 410 yards and a touchdown. Comparing this to last year with the Rams, Robinson had 308 routes run (75th) and 52 targets (T-79th), and also dealt with a foot injury that required surgery, playing in just 10 games with 33 catches, 339 yards, and three touchdowns, with the latter an encouraging uptick. His recent injury history is obviously a concern, and here’s to hoping he can provide a healthy and productive year for the black and gold.
Now for a trip down memory lane, with former Steeler Ray-Ray McCloud, who had 314 routes run in 2021 and 65 targets, with each tying for 61st in 2021, including 41 catches, 297 yards, and no touchdowns. This was his most opportunity in his four NFL seasons to date, largely due to wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster’s shoulder injury that ended his regular season (admirably returned for the Wild Card game). This is all very important context as we dive deeper.
Let’s examine targets further, adding yardage context with average distance of target (ADoT) along with average distance of catch (ADoC):
Robinson II leads the focused players with a 12.7 ADoT in 2021 (T-19th) but landed at the league mean in ADoC (8.1) which ranked 46th, which was a pretty large discrepancy that’s highlighted by the trendline. He was even lower in the results last year, landing below the mean in both, with a 61st-ranked ADoT and his ADoC landing healthier at 52nd, maximizing his opportunities considering his target distances in 2022. This aligns more to the role I envision him having with Pittsburgh as WR3, and it will be very interesting to see what these numbers look like this season. Claypool was the only player in our sights to land above average in both, with a 9.1 ADoC (31st) and an 11.2 ADoT (39th). Pittsburgh found a gem in these terms, particularly in wide receiver George Pickens, who ranked fourth in ADoT and an even better third in ADoC as a rookie in 2022, highlighting his sure hands that will seemingly continue moving forward, and a strong fit to fill the void of what Pittsburgh envisioned in Claypool.
The other two focused players landed below the mean in both, starting with Johnson. He had an 8.7 ADoT (67th) and 5.8 ADoC (74th) in quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s final season in 2021. Comparing this to last season with Pickett (and Mitch Trubisky), Johnson’s numbers increased to a 10.7 ADoT (T-42nd) and a 7.5 ADoC (T-53rd). So, while it was considered a down year for him overall, here’s to hoping the healthier target distances for Johnson remain with an expected and improved connection with Pickett in year two. McCloud lands last out of the focused players again, with a 6.6 ADoT (82nd) and a 4.1 ADoC (85th), which were each in the bottom ten of the qualifying wide receivers.
Here are NFL receivers on target catch rates (total receptions divided by the number of catchable targets) and drop percentages (drops divided by catchable targets) in 2022:
What stands out right away is Robinson II’s encouraging 2.2% drop rate that tied for 13th in 2021. The other side of the coin was an unfortunate regression last season to 5.6%, which tied for 52nd. His 87.5% on target catch rate in 2021 tied for 55th, and this encouragingly improved last season to an above-average 90.6% which ranked 39th. Here’s to hoping Robinson II can return to a similarly encouraging recent drop rate he had in 2021, while keeping his positive trend of on-target catches as well. Johnson was just above the mean with a 90.2% on target catch rate (40th) and was right at the NFL mean at a 5.4% drop rate (50th) in 2021. He unfortunately regressed in both last season, particularly with an 84.7% on-target catch rate that ranked 70th, and tied for 52nd with a 5.6% drop rate. Hopefully, he can improve in both, especially in the focus drop department, but the recent drop data across the last two seasons diminishes my optimism.
The remaining players are the former Steelers. McCloud had an above-the-mean result in on-target catch rate at 92.3% (T-26th), but an important context is his low target distances and points to easier opportunities comparatively overall. This sheds important negative light to his lowest 8.5% drop rate of the focused players, which ranked 77th in the NFL. Claypool was the only player in our sights that was below the mean in both, with a 7.6% drop rate that ranked just one spot higher than McCloud (76th), and was substantially lower in on-target catch percentage (82.6) which ranked 82nd. Pickens had a better balance in both his 2022 rookie year, with a 3.2% drop rate that ranked 27th, and an 89.5% on-target catch rate (T-49th), so the data points to optimism for improvement for the 2023 wide receiver room as being more reliable than the past two seasons.
Next, I wanted to look at and provide overall completion percentages, along with receiver ratings (quarterback passer rating when targeted):
Unfortunately, every player in our sights landed below the mean in both data points in 2021. Johnson was close to average and led the group in both, with a 90.8 receiver rating that ranked 47th, along with a 62.6% completion rate (52nd). These were also aspects of his 2022 season that fell off, with a 58.5% completion rate (57th) and particularly his 58.8 receiver rating that was second worst in the NFL, ironically only above Claypool. In 2021, Claypool had a 77.7 receiver rating (T-69th), highlighting the huge 2022 regression for both players, along with a 56.7% completion rate that tied for 75th.
Then we see the two remaining players, especially low in the receiver rating results in 2021. McCloud had a 60% completion rate (T-59th) and had the fifth-worst receiver rating (57). Robinson II was painfully even lower, with the fourth worst 54.9 receiver rating in 2021, along with a 56.7 completion percentage that ironically tied with Claypool at 75th, ouch. He showed great improvements in each in 2022, encouragingly leaping all the way above the mean in receiver rating (93.3) which ranked 43rd, along with a 63.5% completion rate (49th). Fingers crossed he can continue this trend with the black and gold. Another encouraging thing for the outlook for 2023 is Pickens’ strong 108 receiver rating that ranked 12th in 2022, but landed below the mean with a 61.2% completion rate (57th). The biggest negative takeaway across the two seasons of data is every focused player being below the league mean in completion rate, which must improve if the Steelers hope to get back to their winning ways.
Other important elements I wanted to look at come situationally, so here are receivers’ first down rates, along with broken/missed tackles per reception to see who earned/created extra yardage:
The best singular result came from Johnson, who had a 25.2 broken/missed tackle rate that ranked sixth at the position in 2021, impressively. He also fared well in 2022, but came back to earth a bit at 15.1%, which ranked 24th. Johnson’s first down rates were below the mean in each season though, which was also true for each focused player in 2021, at 57.9% in 2021 (T-53rd) and unfortunately regressed to 52.3% last season (68th), which obviously needs to improve as a primary receiver. Pickens contributed nicely in these terms his rookie year, ranking ninth in first down rate (73.1%), and was also above the mean in broken/missed tackles (13.5%) which landed 28th. Here’s to hoping he can provide similar contributions in year two, a refreshing addition to the recent first-down struggles at the position in recent years.
McCloud was no exception, landing much lower than the other players in our sights with a 43.6% first-down rate that ranked 84th (sixth lowest), but was near the league mean in broken/missed tackles (12.8%) which tied for 40th. Claypool had a 59.3% first down rate (50th) along with an 11.9 broken/missed tackle number that ranked 44th. Robinson II was the only focused player to land well below the NFL mean in both in 2021, with a 57.9% first down rate that tied for 54th, and had a 7.9 broken/missed tackle result that tied for 66th. He encouragingly improved in both last year, particularly with a much better 69.7% first down rate for a solid 16th rank, along with a 9.1% broken/missed tackle result that tied for 53rd. With the strong recent first-down numbers from Pickens and Robinson II, I’m optimistic for a positive trend for 2023 Steelers receivers.
To close, let’s look at a more total view using points earned per route (The total of a player’s EPA responsibility on targets using the Total Points system that distributes credit among all players on the field for a given play. Totals are scaled up to map to the average points scored or allowed on a team level, with the player’s snap count determining how much to adjust. For receivers, this includes accounting for offensive line play, off-target passes, dropped passes, and broken tackles) and positive rates (the percentage of passes thrown to the player that resulted in a positive EPA (i.e. a successful play for the offense):
The only above the mean result in 2021 came from Johnson, on 14th ranked points earned per route, compared to falling off a cliff last season to 67th. His positive percentages were also discouragingly below average each year, ranking 66th and 68th the last two seasons. The data gives specific context to how Johnson can hopefully improve in 2023, as well as each focused player in 2021, an important expectation for improvement that would obviously be huge for Pittsburgh’s offense (knocks on wood).
Robinson led the 2021 focused players in positive rate (46.3%), but was well below average and tied for 71st, along with his points earned per route ranking 59th, compared to a vast improvement to 13th in positive rate and tied for 45th in points earned per route. The former Steelers were below the mean in each, with Claypool tying for 49th in points earned per route and a much lower 83rd in positive play rate. McCloud landed at the extreme bottom left of the chart, fourth worst in positive rate and dead last in points earned per route. We definitely see context for Pittsburgh moving on from their former receivers, and see room for optimism for the 2023 group.
So, Robinson II’s 2021 season was largely below league average. He fared best in drop rate (T-13th), ADoT (T-19th), and was at league average in ADoC (46th), but was below the mean in on-target catch rate (52nd), first down rate (T-54th), points earned per route (59th), targets (60th), routes run (65th), broken/missed tackles (T-66th), positive rate (T-71st), completion percentage (T-75th), the fourth worst receiver rating. His 2022 season encouragingly trended positively in many regards, highlighted by top 20 ranks in positive (13th) and first down (16th) rates, which would be huge if he can carry this over to Pittsburgh. Robinson II was slightly above average in on-target catch percentage (39th), and receiver rating (43rd), slightly below the league mean in completion rate (49th), drop percentage (T-52nd), ADoC (52nd), and broken/missed tackles per reception (T-53rd). While his below-average results were points earned (45th), ADoT (T-61st), but most notably in routes run (75th) and targets (T-79th). Here’s to hoping it’s a healthy 2023 first and foremost, and hopefully build on his positive trends overall last year for the black and gold.
What are your thoughts on the data and the 2023 outlook at the position? Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
