In the NFL, general managers and salary cap gurus often have a three-year outlook available at their finger tips.
Those three-year financial outlooks help shape decisions in free agency, the draft and with contract extensions of their own players. Pittsburgh Steelers GM Omar Khan certainly operates off of a three-year financial outlook, as does Director of Football Administration Cole Marcoux, who handles the contracts for the Steelers.
After a busy last two offseasons that saw the Steelers add a number of outside free agents, take on money in a trade for Allen Robinson II and extend a couple of key players, what does the three-year outlook look like for the Black and Gold moving forward?
According to Pro Football Focus, it’s not good – or bad. It’s just…average. In PFF’s NFL Salary Cap three-year look ahead, the Steelers rank No. 18 overall, based on five criteria: top 51 veteran valuation, active draft capital, 2023-25 cap space, total prorated money and 2024 free agent valuation.
“The Steelers had a phenomenal offseason of addressing many of the roster’s weaknesses at a reasonable price — in particular, overhauling an offensive line that struggled mightily in 2022 in front of rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett. The unfortunate reality for Pittsburgh is they find themselves in a brutal AFC North division where all three other members land in the top 15 of the top 51 veteran valuation,” PFF’s Brad Spielberger writes regarding the Steelers’ ranking. “They aren’t backing down from a challenge and look to extend their streak of .500-plus seasons to 20 in 2023, and despite the challenging schedule ahead we probably shouldn’t expect anything different.”
In PFF’s three-year outlook, the Steelers have a top 51 veteran valuation of $314,107,919. The top 51 veteran valuation is the total valuation of all players on each club’s top 51, excluding 2023 draft picks, and is a snapshot of their current value under 2023 market conditions, not a forecast of what they would theoretically cost on the open market after the season.
That top 51 veteran valuation sits behind the Baltimore Ravens ($315m, No. 16), Cleveland Browns ($370m, No. 6) and the Cincinnati Bengals ($409m, No. 3).
Along with the top 51 veteran valuation, the Steelers have an active draft capital score of 19,466, which ranks 22nd in the NFL. The active draft capital score converts every rookie-contract player on each team’s roster into a score to weigh each player’s value. Jacksonville was No. 1 in the league in the active draft capital score with 27,433.
The Steelers ranked 17th in the 2023-25 cap space with $159,899,711. Among AFC North teams, Cincinnati ranked No. 4 overall with $253,525,303 in cap space in the three years ahead, though that will drop dramatically once quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receivers Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase sign their extensions. Cleveland ranked dead last in cap space with $28.5 million over the cap in that three-year window, while Baltimore ranked 24th with $101 million in cap space.
Things didn’t get much better for Pittsburgh in the total prorated money category, either. Total prorated money is when money is converted into a bonus that prorates over a number of years — most typically signing bonuses — it can no longer be manipulated for salary cap purposes. Pittsburgh ranked 14th with $182,427,176 in prorated money in the three-year outlook. Chicago had the least amount of prorated money with $84.7 million. Baltimore and Cleveland both have north of $340 million in prorated money in that timeframe, while Cincinnati has just $123.8 million – for now.
Pittsburgh did improve dramatically in the 2024 free agent valuation rankings, placing fifth overall with a figure of $85,448,158. That means Pittsburgh isn’t set to lose all that much compared to the rest of the league when it comes to unrestricted free agents in 2024.
Overall, Pittsburgh appears to be in decent shape, especially with some of the contracts that the Bengals are set to dole out, along with some of the contracts that Cleveland and Baltimore have handed out. Pittsburgh remains in a bit of a transition, but Khan and Co. have done a good job of landing veteran free agents and have drafted well overall, keeping some financial flexibility moving forward to take advantage of Kenny Pickett’s rookie contract when it comes to competing for championships.
