The Pittsburgh Steelers kept their busy offseason going, adding yet another piece to their revamped linebacker room with the signing of Kwon Alexander. So, I will continue the series by looking at data of his 2022 season in coverage, including Cole Holcomb, Elandon Roberts, and 2022 Steelers as well for comparative context. Using data from Sports Info Solutions (SIS), I will take a similar angle to the article I wrote earlier this offseason. Today’s focus will primarily be on Alexander.
Let’s get right to it, starting with 2022 coverage snaps and targets to get a gauge of the quantity of plays comparatively:
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In 2022, Alexander was the most targeted linebacker of the focused players with 31. This ranked 30th and was slightly above the mean of the 67 qualifying linebackers (minimum of 15 targets), despite being on the field for only 245 coverage snaps and appearing in all 17 games last season, which was second least of the highlighted players and ranked 58th overall. The visual highlights opposing quarterbacks targeting Alexander at a very high rate given his opportunities, emphasized by the trendline. It is important context as we dive deeper.
Now let’s begin to examine the quality of play with completion percentage and deserved catch percentage, which is the number of completions and drops divided by the number of catchable targets and passes defensed:
Alexander topped the group of players we’re focused on with a 64.5 completion rate allowed. That ranked strong at 25th, but his well-below-average 92 percent deserved catch rate landed much lower at 52nd, meaning he had less of an impact on the result of his overall completion percentage allowed, comparatively. Alexander had just one pass defensed and no interceptions last season, matching 2022 Steelers linebacker Myles Jack’s numbers, with Devin Bush and Robert Spillane having two pass deflections and no interceptions. Since we’re comparing, Cole Holcomb had the same totals as Alexander as well, while Elandon Roberts had goose eggs in both passes defensed and interceptions. On paper, Pittsburgh didn’t improve its splash playmaking from 2022. Here’s to hoping this year’s group can buck recent trends in this regard and provide this much-needed boost on defense, but we’ll need to see it to believe it.
Next, let’s look at the yardage of the targets with yards per attempt and yards per game:
Here we see Alexander landed below the mean in both yardage data points, starting with a 7.5 yards per attempt number that is eerily similar to Holcomb and Roberts, tying for 52nd in the NFL. Seeing that Alexander is stronger than Bush and Spillane is encouraging, but considering his lower coverage snap opportunities, you’d ideally see his yards per game that landed at 13.7 be stronger (like Roberts, for example), though faring better than Holcomb and ranking 45th. I was curious about what was the amount of zone Alexander played, which his former Jets team did at the position quite a bit, coming in at 68.7 percent. This was substantially higher than the other linebackers we’re focused on, in fact the 14th highest of the qualifying linebackers. In comparison, Spillane had the second-highest rate at 60 percent (Roberts 56.9, Jack 53.6, Bush 52.3, and Holcomb 49.6). Very important context that sheds some optimistic light on Alexander’s yardage allowed.
Another stat that is used often to evaluate defenders in coverage is QBR Against (factors in completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions). Let’s see how they fare along with Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which is a points above replacement scale conversion that is based on the scoring environment:
Alexander topped the focused group in another coverage aspect in 2022, with a 73.7 QBR Against that ranked impressively at 15th. His was the only above-the-mean result of the highlighted players in 2022. For more context, Alexander allowed 20 completions (T-34th), 233 yards (51st), encouragingly no touchdowns, but as previously mentioned, no interceptions either. The lower-yardage rank makes sense after the previous view, and if he earns coverage opportunities with Pittsburgh this season, they will definitely want to see him improve on this as well as the aforementioned taking the ball away. This is even more true for his WAR result (T-57th), which was the second-lowest mark, and seeing every highlighted linebacker in our sights below the mean obviously needs to change for a hopefully more successful 2023 as well.
To close, let’s look at SIS’s Boom and Bust percentages to see the rates of big plays allowed or made in coverage.
- Boom percentage = The percentage of drop backs that resulted in an EPA of 1 or more (a very successful play for the offense)
- Bust percentage = The percentage of drop backs that resulted in an EPA of -1 of less (a very unsuccessful play for the offense)
The stronger result for Alexander came on a slightly above the mean 12.9 bust rate that ranked 26th, topping our list of highlighted linebackers once again; the rest of this group was below league average. Speaking of which, this is where his boom rate landed, allowing big plays for opposing offenses at a 22.6 boom rate that landed second among focused players, but ranked 48th across the league. We can see from the visual that this was a struggle for the Steelers’ new additions overall, and the other concern being Holcomb and Roberts’ zero burgers in bust percentage.
So, the coverage findings at the linebacker position don’t leave warm and fuzzy feelings overall. For Alexander in particular, he was targeted at an above-average rate (30th) despite lower coverage opportunities (58th). That emphasizes opposing quarterbacks liking their chances and going at him often, relatively speaking. Playing zone coverage at the 14th-highest rate is definitely an important factor in this and his data. If the lower rates of the former Steelers are closer to what Alexander might see, it will be interesting what effect it could have for him in 2023, considering man coverage seemed to be a struggle for him in our own Jonathan Heitritter’s film study and a low 29.3 PFF man-coverage grade.
In this article, he fared best in QBR Against (15th), completion percentage allowed (25th), and bust rate (26th). That all topped the players we are focused on, which is a low bar, respectively. The other side of the coin were below average results in yards per game (45th), boom rate (48th), deserved catch rate (52nd), yards per attempt (T-52nd), and WAR (T-57th). If Alexander is able to continue some of the stronger aspects of his play in coverage, it could aid in an improvement for the 2023 unit. His lower results that included no interceptions and just one pass breakup lead me to be cautiously optimistic.
One thing’s for sure, I can’t wait to see how it pans out. Also, stay tuned for a run defense study on him soon.
What are your thoughts on the data and the addition of Kwon Alexander? Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
