Entering his age 34 season and 13th overall in the NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers star defensive lineman and team captain Cameron Heyward is showing no signs of slowing down in the trenches, which is a rather demanding position overall.
Heyward is coming off of his second straight 10-plus sack season for the Steelers and earned a trip to the Pro Bowl once again last season, though he was snubbed of at least a Second Team All-Pro honor.
Last season, Heyward recorded 10 sacks and was a star down the stretch as the Steelers made a push for a playoff berth.
Heyward played at an All-Pro level in 2022 and closed out his 12th season in strong fashion, recording 5.5 sacks in the final four games of the season, helping the Steelers go 3-1 down the stretch and remain in playoff contention right until the very end. Assuming health not only for himself, but for key pieces around him in the Steelers’ defensive front, Heyward should have another great season in 2023.
He’s a perennial All-Pro and Pro Bowler, the face of the Steelers and is also quietly putting together a Hall of Fame resume in the trenches.
Through 12 seasons, Heyward has 614 tackles, 78,5 sacks, two interceptions, 115 tackles for loss, 176 quarterback hits, 46 pass deflections, seven fumble recoveries and eight forced fumbles, earning four All-Pro accolades and six trips to the Pro Bowl.
And yet, this — of all seasons — is the one in which Heyward is going to fall off, at least according to ESPN’s Mike Clay. In Clay’s 2023 projections, Heyward is going to see a precipitous drop-off in overall production, particularly with sacks.
It’s not just Heyward for whom Clay is projecting a down year on the Steelers. Clay is projecting a rather quiet, unproductive season overall from the Steelers’ defensive line.
Knowing that, I decided to take a look at the projected stats from the Steelers’ six defensive linemen highlighted — Heyward, Larry Ogunjobi, Armon Watts, Keeanu Benton, Isaiahh Loudermilk and Montravius Adams — to determine if the players will go over or under their projections in 2023.
Let’s take a look.
CAMERON HEYWARD — 2023 PROJECTION FROM ESPN: 788 snaps, 70 tackles, 6.1 sacks
Even with the projection that Heyward will play just 13 less snaps from the previous season, Clay projecting a decline of four sacks in 2023 is a bit shocking.
As I wrote earlier, Heyward has shown no signs of slowing down and even closed the 2022 season on a heater, recording 5.5 sacks in the final four games of the year to crack 10 sacks on the season. He never ran out of gas and got better as the season progressed. Why can’t that happen again in 2023?
I get it: Father Time remains (largely) undefeated. Heyward is entering his age 34 season. At some point, he has to slow down, right? It’s hard to see the 2023 season being that year for Heyward though, especially with the additions Pittsburgh has made around him, not to mention T.J. Watt being back healthy overall and with Alex Highsmith poised to take another step forward in his rather impressive growth.
It would be a bit foolish to project another 10-sack season for Heyward at 34, but Clay’s projection for Captain Cam feels rather low.
Verdict: Over
LARRY OGUNJOBI — 2023 PROJECTION FROM ESPN: 647 snaps, 48 tackles, 2.6 sacks
The first season of the Larry Ogunjobi tenure in Pittsburgh wasn’t all that anyone was expecting. Signing late in the summer after a failed physical negated a three-year deal with the Chicago Bears in free agency, Ogunjobi recorded just 1.5 sacks last season with the Steelers. Though he played in 16 games, Ogunjobi was never fully healthy and really wasn’t able to practice throughout the week or even during training camp. That led to a quiet first season in Pittsburgh.
Now, he’s healthy and knows the system and is armed with a new three-year deal. Still, Clay is projecting a quiet year for Ogunjobi opposite Heyward in the trenches with just 48 tackles and 2.6 sacks, even while being projected to play an additional 11 snaps compared to his 2022 numbers.
Now healthy and comfortable in the Steelers system, Ogunjobi is in line to return to his 2021 level of dominance he displayed in Cincinnati when he recorded a career-high 7.0 sacks. He might not reach those numbers again, but he’ll be a disruptive force for Pittsburgh, assuming health. Easy pick here for me, again.
Verdict: Over
ARMON WATTS — 2023 PROJECTION FROM ESPN: 453 snaps, 33 tackles, 1.7 sacks
Watts was signed away from the Chicago Bears in free agency as a depth defensive lineman, one who can play base 3-4 defensive end, nose tackle or can line up as the 4i in sub-package football. Though it remains to be seen if he can actually crack the 53-man roster in 2023, Clay is projecting him to be a rather big part of the rotation along the defensive line with the 453 projected snaps, third-most on the defensive line.
The 33 tackles and 1.7 sacks are in line with the numbers Watts put up in 2022 with the Bears (35 tackles, 1.0 sack), but if he can reach the level he played at in 2021 with the Minnesota Vikings (46 tackles, 5.0 sacks), the Steelers might have found a diamond in the rough.
For now though, it’s a stretch to assume Watts will not only make the team but also be a key rotational piece. That said, he has the experience and versatility and has some good tape overall.
Verdict: Push
KEEANU BENTON — 2023 PROJECTION FROM ESPN: 324 snaps, 24 tackles, 1.5 sacks
Benton was the big prize along the defensive line in the offseason when the Steelers drafted him at No. 49 overall in the second round, infusing some youth and serious upside into an aging defensive line.
Benton brings an intriguing package of strength and athleticism to the position. As defensive coordinator Teryl Austin stated following the selection of Benton, the Wisconsin product is much more polished as a run defender than a pass rusher, and that shows up on tape. To start his rookie campaign, Benton will stick at nose tackle (for the time being) but has the upside and athleticism to be a situational pass rusher in sub-package football.
Clay’s projection of just 324 snaps seems a bit low, as does the 24 tackles considering his abilities as a run stopper. However, 1.5 sacks sounds about right. Still, this is a slight over for me with Benton.
Verdict: Slight Over
MONTRAVIUS ADAMS — 2023 PROJECTION FROM ESPN: 162 snaps, 12 tackles, 0.6 sacks
Adams was a big part of the Steelers’ outlook on the defensive line last season, but he underperformed and now is in a crowded room without a clear path to the 53-man roster.
Entering the 2022 season, Adams was expected to bring experienced depth behind veteran Tyson Alualu, but Alualu’s struggles in his return from injury led to Adams being placed into the starting lineup over him. While Adams had flashes, he was too inconsistent and didn’t have quite the impact the Steelers were hoping for. He recorded just 26 tackles in 281 defensive snaps.
Clay’s projections see Adams losing more than 100 snaps, and recording less than half of the tackles he did the previous season. While I like Adams’ experience and versatility, this is an easy choice for me, largely because I don’t see him making the roster.
Verdict: Under
ISAIAHH LOUDERMILK — 2023 PROJECTION FROM ESPN: 54 snaps, 4 tackles, 0.2 sacks
Things have not gone well for Loudermilk since his rookie season in 2021. That year, Loudermilk was forced into the rotation due to injuries and looked rather solid overall, recording 23 tackles and sack. He fell off greatly in 2022, recording just seven tackles while playing in just 11 games, seeing 116 snaps overall.
After the additions the Steelers made in the trenches defensively this offseason, Loudermilk finds himself in a similar boat as Adams and could be out of a job. He’ll need a strong training camp to make the roster. For now, this is an under on Loudermilk’s projections.
Verdict: Under
