Much has been made this offseason about the progression of Pittsburgh Steelers QB Kenny Pickett making a second-year leap in 2023. Given the fact that Pickett now has a full season under his belt and the maturation process we’ve seen during the offseason, many expect Pickett to show a noticeable improvement from his rookie season, having an improved offensive line and numerous weapons to throw to.
However, Rivers McCown of NBC Sports isn’t as optimistic about Pickett and his outlook heading into 2023, pointing on in his 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers fantasy preview article that the advanced stats say that Pickett has a long way to go before he can be considered a quality starting quarterback in the NFL.
“Was Kenny Pickett clutch?” McCown of NBC Sports wrote. “Not really. He had a minus-14.7% DVOA on throws in the fourth quarter and overtime. Did his arm open up the offense? Not really. Pickett’s 21.8% DVOA on deep passes was the second-lowest of any quarterback with 50 deep attempts on the season, ahead of only Kyler Murray. Did he perform well in the red zone? He had an NFL-worst minus-141 DYAR on his 61 red zone attempts.”
When looking at the specific stats on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), Pickett’s rookie season looks like one to forget, struggling to take advantage of opposing defenses down the field as well as in the red zone. However, Pro Football Focus would argue that Pickett shined during the stretch last season based on the analytics, ranking first in the league in passing grade and turnover play rate and second in big-time throw rate in Weeks 12-18 of last season. Pickett also ranked third in the NFL under pressure and outside of the pocket during the course of the 2022 season, suggesting that he was clutch in different situations outside of the DVOA stat.
The Steelers boast a plethora of weapons on the offensive side of the football, having Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Allen Robinson II, Calvin Austin III, Pat Freiermuth, and Darnell Washington to throw the ball to. The running backs also have proven to be capable pass catchers with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren having a well-rounded skill set. However, Pickett is the catalyst in terms of this passing game reaching its full potential in 2023, being the guy in command of the offense who must complete drives and put points on the board.
Should we see more of the same from Pickett in 2023 like we did from his rookie season, McCown argues, it will be hard for the weapons in Pittsburgh’s offense to live up to its full potential.
“And if Pickett isn’t going to take a step up this season, it’s hard to understand how the passing game parts around him can live up to the hype that they’re currently getting in drafts,” McCown wrote. “For me, outside of Freiermuth, this passing game is a full-on fade at the current ADPs. I didn’t believe much in Pickett as a prospect — something that was borne out by him falling deep into the first round — and nothing I saw in year one has convinced me otherwise.”
