Top to bottom, the Pittsburgh Steelers appear to have a rather strong, balanced roster entering the 2023 season, following the work this offseason that GM Omar Khan and assistant GM Andy Weidl did.
The Steelers seem much more balanced and have some big names on both sides of the football, which should have Pittsburgh being a rather stout, tough team to play against weekly.
Yet, ESPN’s Mike Clay sees the Steelers as a defense-heavy team with quite a large margin between the offensive and defensive rankings in his ESPN projections. According to Clay’s projections, the Steelers defense ranks No. 3 in the NFL entering the 2023 season, while the offense checks in at No. 20. Overall, the Steelers check in at No. 12 in Clay’s projections.
Clay based his projections on unit grades. Anything in the 1.0s is a poor grade, while anything 3.0 or higher is considered a high-level grade. Offensively, Clay has the Steelers generating a total grade of just 11.2, ranking 20th in the league. The offensive grade overall was held back by just a 1.3 grade for the quarterbacks overall with second-year pro Kenny Pickett, veteran backup Mitch Trubisky and No. 3 quarterback Mason Rudolph.
Elsewhere offensively, the running backs and wide receivers generated a grade of 2.1 each, while the tight ends in Pittsburgh were considered high-level with a grade of 3.3. The offensive line came in at 2.4 overall, the second-highest position group offensively.
The offensive projections for the units from Clay are a bit strange. One could argue that the quarterbacks are one of the strengths of the team with Pickett expected to make a second-year leap, building off of the strong play he put together down the stretch as a rookie.
Having the experience of Trubisky and Rudolph as backups is great for Pittsburgh as well. Running back and wide receiver coming in at 2.1 overall (average) is certainly fair, but having the offensive line ahead of them in the projections doesn’t quite match up, even if Pittsburgh rebuilt the offensive line the last two offseasons and has it in great shape moving forward.
Tight end is a clear strength though with Pat Freiermuth on the cusp of history at the tight end position and on the cusp of being considered a great tight end in the NFL. Depth in Zach Gentry and Connor Heyward is rather strong, and the addition of Darnell Washington via the draft turned the position into a real strength.
Ranking the Steelers’ offense 20th overall though feels a bit low for Pittsburgh, even with Matt Canada as offensive coordinator. The Steelers were pretty solid offensively in the second half of the season in 2022 turning in the No. 7 rushing attack and making plays down the field in the passing game. That should only improve in 2023.
The defense is the headliner for Pittsburgh though, led by outside linebackers T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, defensive linemen Cameron Heyward and Larry Ogunjobi, and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. In Clay’s rankings, the Steelers’ defense landed at No. 3 in the league.
The interior defensive line generated a 3.1 grade, EDGE graded out at 3.9, inside linebacker at 1.9, cornerback at 1.8, and safety at 2.9, good for a defensive grade of 13.6 overall — not much higher than the offense at 11.2.
Despite that small difference, Clay has the Steelers’ defense at No. 3, compared to No. 20 offensively.
Make no mistake about it: Pittsburgh will lean heavily on its defense in 2023, assuming good health. There was a clear recipe for success last season for the Black and Gold in the second half of the season, which featured a heavy dose of the run game, a ferocious pass rush and timely forced turnovers, leading to wins in low-scoring games.
That should be the style the Steelers play in 2023, again assuming good health overall.
Even with that style of play, it feels pretty unfair and lopsided to have that large of a margin between the offense and defense in Pittsburgh this season. Should key guys continue to develop in the right direction offensively and build off of the play down the stretch last season, the offense will be much closer to the defense than Clay’s projections believe.
