According to ESPN’s Win Probability projections as part of Mike Clay’s 2023 season projections, the Pittsburgh Steelers have three post-bye matchups in which they have their highest Win Probability numbers of the season.
In Clay’s projections, the Steelers hold their highest Win Probability percentages in the Week Seven matchup on the road against the Los Angeles Rams, Week Nine at home against the Tennessee Titans, and Week 13 at home against the Arizona Cardinals.
Hitting the road for the Week Seven matchup against the Rams, the Steelers hold a 71 percent win probability against Los Angeles coming out of the Week Six bye.
While West Coast trips have historically been difficult for the Steelers — 2-3 on the West Coast since 2018 — Pittsburgh gets the chance to make the long trip to SoFi Stadium coming out of the bye week. That should have the Steelers relatively healthy and well-rested for the Week Seven matchup at 4 p.m.
The 2023 season is seemingly a good time to get a crack at the Rams, who will have the youngest roster in the NFL with 36 rookies on the 90-man off-season roster currently. Los Angeles is just two seasons removed from a Super Bowl championship in which it racked up a serious credit card bill to win the Lombardi and now finds itself paying that bill in a big, big way.
Names like Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford still remain for the Rams, as does head coach Sean McVay, but it’s a young, inexperienced roster and depth is lacking. Pittsburgh could be catching them at a good time, which leads to the 71 percent win probability.
In Week Nine, the Steelers hold a 72 percent Win Probability — their highest of the season — against the Titans, who will ride into town for Thursday Night Football at Acrisure Stadium.
Pittsburgh will be coming off of a short week having played the Jacksonville Jaguars at home in Week Eight and will host the Titans in a second straight matchup with an AFC South team. Tennessee, like the Rams, is going through a transitional period under head coach Mike Vrabel, having lost a number of pieces in free agency.
However, the Titans still have stars in running back Derrick Henry and safety Kevin Byard, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill returns, though it remains to be seen if he’s the starter in Week Nine or if hotshot rookie Will Levis is the quarterback at that point. The Titans just signed veteran wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, too, which gives them a playmaker in the passing game.
Pittsburgh has won the last four matchups against the Titans, dating back to 2014, including a 19-13 win in 2021 in which Pittsburgh scored nine fourth-quarter points to pick up the win.
Rounding out the top Win Probability percentages for the Steelers, Pittsburgh holds a 71 percent Win Probability in the Week 13 match-up against the Arizona Cardinals at Acrisure Stadium.
That Win Probability favoring Pittsburgh isn’t a surprise, though it does seem a bit low considering the Cardinals might be the worst team in football in 2023. Quarterback Kyler Murray is expected to miss much of the season while recovering from a torn ACL, and while he might be back for the Week 13 matchup, the Cardinals don’t have much in the form of protection around him.
Arizona certainly has some weapons offensively with wide receivers Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch, as well as tight ends Zach Ertz and Trey McBride, not to mention running backs James Conner and Keaontay Ingram. Overall though, it’s a bad roster, and it’s a game that the Steelers should win, giving them their fourth straight regular-season win over the Cardinals and fifth overall, including Super Bowl XLIII.
On the flip side of the Win Probability, the Steelers have very low percentages in five games, including the final three games of the year against the Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens. Pittsburgh’s lowest Win Probability of the Year though comes in Week 12 on the road against Cincinnati, which is where the Steelers won last season.
