The running back position and its current market value has been a hot topic within NFL circles lately, particularly after the franchise tag contract extension deadline passed with none of the three tagged backs getting new deals.
It’s been more than two years since any running back has signed a multi-year deal worth $10 million or more per season, and it’s becoming increasingly common for top backs to be released or asked to accept pay cuts to keep their jobs.
Many at the position have since spoken out publicly about the state of their market, including Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris, a 2021 first-round draft pick entering his third season. The team will have to decide whether to pick up his fifth-year option in 2024, at which point he will first become eligible for a contract extension.
Would he hold out, or hold in, or do anything at that point to try to gain leverage? Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk suggested that’s what running backs should do, since recent patterns have shown it’s after their third season that running backs have most often successfully gotten paid. Even if he did this in 2025, assuming his option was picked up, what are the odds of it happening?
“I suppose a little bit just because he has status on the team as a captain, leadership, that sort of thing, but you’ve got to be careful”, Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette said on 93.7 The Fan recently. “Jaylen Warren is right behind him on the depth chart”.
“All rosters aren’t constructed the same way, and I doubt there are [many] other teams in the NFL who have as strong as a number two as the Steelers do”, he added. “If Najee Harris holds out next year and Jaylen Warren plays the way I think he could play over the course of a 17-game season getting a lot of touches, that could be a death knell for Najee Harris and his career in Pittsburgh”.
Harris rushed for 1,034 yards on 272 attempts last season with seven rushing touchdowns, averaging 3.8 yards per attempt. His backup, the undrafted Warren, rushed for 379 yards on only 77 attempts with one touchdown as a rookie in 2022, averaging 4.9 yards per carry.
While the sample size is small, the Steelers do like what they’ve seen out of Warren and believe he has a promising future ahead of him. But they have already been down this road. When Le’Veon Bell sat out the 2018 season rather than play a second consecutive season under the franchise tag, his backup, James Conner, stepped into the spotlight and went to the Pro Bowl.
Could Warren have a similarly productive season a year or two from now in the event that Harris decides to take some drastic action in an attempt to address his and the position’s financial stagnation? And if he did, would that be Harris’ death knell, or would it be the position he put the team in?
One thing you never want to do is give your superiors the opportunity to see how replaceable you are. That is a risk any player in a situation like that described above has to consider. They might also be wise to consider the history here, because it hasn’t always worked out in the player’s favor in the long run, especially when losing sight of the things that are important beyond contract value.
