The Pittsburgh Steelers’ busy free agency included the signing of safety Keanu Neal. Today I wanted to provide some data context to what he provided last season in coverage following my run defense article on him, along with Pittsburgh’s 2022 safeties as well, considering Neal’s services could largely replace the departed Terrell Edmunds, who is now with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Let’s get right to it, starting with 2022 coverage snaps and targets for quantity value:
Here we can see the 2022 starting safeties for Pittsburgh led the way in coverage-snap opportunities. Minkah Fitzpatrick had 539, which ranked 31st out of 95 qualifying safeties. Opposing quarterbacks wisely threw his way at a below-average rate, with 24 targets below the trendline, tied for 55th in the league. Edmunds had 486 coverage snaps (44th) and was targeted more comparatively (31), which tied for 29th most. Neal had the third-most coverage snaps of the players we’re focused on (301), which ranked 76th. He was targeted 20 times, which was right at the average for the position given his snaps. Two other Steelers from last season qualified, starting with Damontae Kazee, who had 185 coverage snaps. That ranked 90th and he was targeted only twice. Tre Norwood similarly had a low 162 coverage snap opportunities which was second least of the qualifying players but was targeted more with 13, which was 85th in the NFL. Their opportunities and target rates are important context moving forward in the article, and as we consider the outlook for 2023.
Now let’s begin to examine the quality of play with completion percentage and deserved catch percentage, which is the number of completions and drops divided by the number of catchable targets and passes defensed:
Right away we can see Neal was the only player through Steelers lenses who was below the mean in both data points. He allowed an 80% completion rate that tied for the second worst last season, along with a 94.1 deserved catch percentage (90th). Not great and likely gives us context to how the rotations should look with Neal utilized most on run downs, playing more to his strengths from 2022. Norwood had a 30.8% completion rate allowed, which was second best in the league and the fifth-best 62.5 deserved catch percentage, though it is important to recall on the second least coverage snaps as well. If given more opportunities in 2023, it will be interesting to see if he can stay above the line in these terms. Kazee was second of the players in our sights with a 50% completion percentage (T-18th), but a 100% deserved catch rate on his minimal opportunities. Hard to glean too much for both players last year and leaves uncertainty moving forward into 2023. Fitzpatrick had an above-average 54.2% completion percentage (31st) but a much lower 87.5% deserved catch rate that tied for 73rd. Edmunds landed slightly above the mean in both, with a 58.1 completion rate (T-46th) and a 73.1 deserved catch percentage at a solid 21st rank. Here’s to hoping the value he provided in this regard can be replicated by the 2023 Pittsburgh safeties on higher snap counts.
Next, let’s look at the depth of targets with yards per attempt and yards per coverage snap:
From a yards per attempt perspective, Norwood tops the focused players (3.1), which ranked second league-wide, along with his yards per coverage snap being well above average as well. Kazee also landed above the mean in both. He led the group with zero yards per coverage snap and 4.5 yards per attempt, which ranked sixth in the NFL. Fitzpatrick was above average with 0.4 yards per coverage snap, but below the mean with 9.1 yards per attempt, which tied for 76th. It is important to factor in his higher number of deep snap alignments compared to other safeties, which is an important context. Neal was slightly below league average in both, with 0.5 yards per coverage snap and 8.1 yards per attempt (T-56th), notable considering he primarily aligned in the box last season. Edmunds had the lowest results of the players in our sights, with 0.6 yards per coverage snap and 9.7 yards per attempt, which tied for 81st overall. Hopefully this is something Neal, Norwood, and Kazee can continue to fare stronger at in 2023 with Edmunds’ snaps out the door.
Another stat that is used often to evaluate defenders in coverage is QBR Against, so let’s see how they fare along with Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which is a points above replacement scale conversion that is based on the scoring environment:
Fitzpatrick tied for the second-best 0.8 WAR result along with a 59.5 QBR against (14th), which is great context to the extreme overall coverage value he provides for Pittsburgh. Kazee and Norwood were also above the mean in both, tying with a 0.3 WAR figure and ranking second (22.9) and fourth (40.5) in QBR against with their small sample sizes in 2022. Overall, we see they provided quality though once again, raising the ultimate question of what they can provide in 2023 if their coverage snaps indeed increase. Neal was just above average in WAR (0.2) but had the worst 133.5 QBR Against the focused safeties that ranked 91st leaguewide. Another poor aspect to his 2022 season in coverage, unfortunately, including two touchdowns allowed. Edmunds was the only player in our sights who was below the mean in both (substantially), with a -0.1 WAR number and a 117.8 QBR Against (82nd), and a whopping four touchdowns allowed, which was second most at the position last season. This will obviously be very crucial to monitor for the 2023 Pittsburgh safeties. Hopefully, this year’s group can fare stronger in this regard with the scoreboard of course being the ultimate goal in winning.
To close, let’s look more at these types of situations with boom and bust percentages from SIS to see how the cornerbacks performed on extreme end of the spectrum plays:
- Boom % = The percentage of drop backs that resulted in an Expected Points Added (EPA) of 1 or more (a very successful play for the offense)
- Bust % = The percentage of drop backs that resulted in an EPA of -1 or less (a very unsuccessful play for the offense)
Kazee topped the results in limited opportunity last season, tying for the best 50% bust rate and zero boom percentage. Norwood was one of the safeties that were tied in boom rate, but he tied for the worst bust percentage as well, meaning he did not provide game-altering plays either on a bit more opportunity than Kazee. Fitzpatrick had an above-average 25% bust rate, which tied for 11th, including six interceptions and taking one to the house. Edmunds was slightly above the mean with a 16.1% bust percentage, including four passes defenses. But he had no interceptions and dropped an opportunity and allowed successful offensive plays at the highest rate of the highlighted players with a 45.2% boom rate, fifth worst in the NFL. Neal was the only player in our sights who was below average in both, with a 30% boom percentage that ranked 64th and a 10% bust rate (T-69th).
So, we get the clear context that Neal struggled in coverage overall compared to his NFL peers. The only factor he was slightly above average in today’s article was WAR, while he was below average in coverage snaps (average number of targets in his opportunities), yards per attempt, yards per coverage snap, boom and bust rates, and had particularly low results in catch rates allowed and QBR against. Edmunds left much to be desired in coverage last season as well though, with the main positive differences between him and Neal being stronger catch rates allowed and snap opportunities. These factors highlight the need for the Steelers to be smart in 2023 in their utilization at the position, with Neal needing to see the field primarily on run downs, and Kazee and/or Norwood trickling in on passing downs, in my opinion. If the latter comes to fruition, it will be interesting to see if they can provide some of the quality aspects they provided last year on a higher quantity of snap opportunities. One thing’s for sure, I can’t wait to see how it all pans out for the position room this season.
What are your thoughts on the data and the position group for the 2023 season? Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
