Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett certainly looked the part overall for the Black and Gold in 2022, his rookie season, displaying a real moxie and “it” factor that helped lead the Steelers to a number of comeback wins in the second half of the season, going 7-2 down the stretch to finish 9-8 on the season.
He showed some serious promise, but there remain some areas that he needs to work on, specifically the deep ball, at least on initial impressions. A deeper dive though showed that Pickett was one of the best deep ball passers in the NFL, finishing second overall in deep ball accuracy in 2022, according to The Deep Ball Project from Johnny Kinsley.
On Monday, that love for Pickett as a deep ball passer continued as Pro Football Focus ranked Pickett as the sixth-best deep ball passer in the NFL, one spot behind Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes.
“Pickett was solid in his first season. He threw five interceptions (tied for fourth most) but recorded a 4.3% turnover-worthy play rate (eighth-best). Most encouraging was his 31.9% big-time throw rate (11th),” PFF’s Lauren Gray writes regarding Pickett’s ranking overall. “With George Pickens leading the way (95.3), these two should become a formidable combination in 2023.”
The ranking is based on grades from PFF in the deep ball passing department, but it’s rather surprising to see Pickett grade out so well in the deep ball from PFF, considering where he ranks overall in the metrics.
According to PFF’s piece, Pickett had 54 drop backs on deep balls last season but ranked 21st in the NFL in deep passing yards (477) and tied for 17th in deep passing touchdowns (4). Pickett also ranked 30th in deep ball passer rating (65.1) and 19th in deep ball completion percentage (38.3%).
Strange metrics overall for the No. 6 QB ranked in the deep ball passing game from PFF.
That said, the “deep” ball consists of 21 or more yards in the data, so it’s not that surprising that Pickett is that high up overall considering the damage he did in the 21- to 30-yard window last season in the passing game.
Looking back at Kinsley’s Deep Ball Project, Pickett was accurate on 19 out of 28 deep passes of 21 to 30 air yards, or 67.86 percent of his throws. That was second only to Seattle’s Geno Smith, who ironically was the top quarterback in the PFF ranking Monday and was top 5 in the Deep Ball Project from February.
Pickett was only accurate on three out of 10 passes targeted 31-40 yards down the field, however, lending much credence to the perception of his struggles throwing the deep ball overall.
Pickett has a lot to work with as a deep passer, should he be able to push his range beyond 30 yards. The real field-flipping plays come further afield. He only had one pass gain 40 or more yards all season, and just eight gathered 30 or more.
His arrow was clearly pointing up at the end of last season, but there are a lot of things, both big and little, for Pickett to work on in order to continue to get better entering Year 2 with the Steelers. Though it’s unclear where, exactly, his ultimate upside sits as a deep ball passer —he doesn’t have elite arm strength, though it’s far from deficient—but all the same, he has been putting in the work this offseason to improve in that aspect of his game. We’ll see if he can take that next step.
An improved offensive line that should be better in pass protection, more usage off of play-action and added weapons in the passing game could unlock another level to Pickett’s game.
