I’ll admit I’m not the biggest fan of record predictions, especially ones made in the middle of June. Before training camp, before preseason, before performances and injuries can shape a roster prior to Week One’s kickoff. But Brett Kollmann is one of the most respected online NFL analysts with great tape breakdowns and thoughts about the X’s and O’s of the game. As part of his series alongside co-host EJ Snyder on the Bootleg Football podcast, Kollmann and Snyder gave their 2023 record projections, giving the Steelers a ceiling and a floor for this year.
Kollmann gave Pittsburgh a ceiling of winning 13 games with a floor of nine, a record range of 13-4 to 9-8. To explain the ceiling, he pointed to the talent and upside of the roster.
“If everything goes right for the Steelers, I’m putting that at 13,” Kollmann said. “They could be the first seed in a loaded AFC if they hit all the green lights that I think they’re going to hit. Because their talent level is insane now. It’s stacked top to bottom.”
Overall, Kollmann saw the Steelers’ roster getting better on both sides of the ball. The offensive improvements are obvious enough. Not only did the Steelers get older and gain more experience — they were the NFL’s youngest offense a year ago — they bettered their personnel. The team signed OG Isaac Seumalo to replace Kevin Dotson, drafted Broderick Jones to potentially replace Dan Moore Jr., while trading for WR Allen Robinson II to handle slot duties. Even Calvin Austin III feels like a draft pick considering he missed his entire rookie year.
Defensively, the Steelers changed plenty of pieces. They lost CB Cam Sutton and Terrell Edmunds while re-tooling nearly their entire ILB room. Only Mark Robinson remains from the 2022 roster.
How much better the room got remains to be soon but it’s different. There’s no question about that.
Predicting the Steelers to not only win 13 games but challenge teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and AFC North foe the Cincinnati Bengals for the #1 seed is obviously going to be a tall task. But this is a ceiling, a best-case scenario, one that obviously assumes Kenny Pickett takes a big Year Two jump, perhaps similar to what Trevor Lawrence did a year ago.
There’s a 17th game now but the Steelers have not won 13 games in a season since 2017, when they finished the year 13-3 and were upset in the Divisional Round by the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Kollmann puts the floor at 9-8, matching last year’s record, primarily because of Mike Tomlin’s ability to find ways to win.
“Their floor, solely because of Mike Tomlin, it’s nine. It’s above .500. I’m not putting a below .500 floor for the Steelers,” Kollman said. “Can’t do it, won’t do it, will never do it. Their floor is nine. And that’s if everything goes to shit. They’re going to be a winning team. Because so many times already, everything went to shit and they were still a winning team.”
As has been well-documented, Tomlin’s never had a losing season since being hired by the Steelers in 2007. Even in difficult years, losing Ben Roethlisberger in 2020, the many problems of last year, Pittsburgh’s found a way to finish no worse than .500.
Ceiling and floors are naturally an exercise in extremes. Putting those aside, Kollmann sounds like a true believer in what Pittsburgh is building.
“I think they’re going to push at their best for a very high seed in the AFC,” he said. “At their worst, they’re a Wild Card team.”
Snyder was less optimistic, giving the Steelers a range of seven to eleven wins, though the floor range assumed Pickett was injured and Matt Canada was unable to show any improvement.
Catch their whole conversation, which covers all aspects of the Steelers, below.
