With the Pittsburgh Steelers on a break before heading to Latrobe for training camp, we’re going to take a look at our expectations for this upcoming season and offer some over/under statistics to weigh in on. The offense wasn’t overly prolific last year, but the defense did put up some big numbers.
That can change in 2023 now that the offense is beginning to mature around second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett, though, and if the Steelers can keep T.J. Watt healthy all year, that will only help everybody be more productive—perhaps especially the defensive backs. So each day we’ll project one stat line, whether for a player or a unit, and share our thoughts before asking you to weigh in on whether you think they will hit the over or the under.
It is your job to project whether or not the over or under will be hit. At the end of the series we will be tallying up the answers for each installment to create a collective pre-training camp snapshot of where you stand heading into the 2023 season.
Stat Line: 14.5 sacks for Alex Highsmith
Outside linebacker Alex Highsmith recorded exactly 14.5 sacks for the Steelers a year ago. Theoretically, he could put up the same numbers again this year, and in the unlikely event of a “push”, we’ll consider reaching the same number an “over”.
While some critics believe much of Highsmith’s success stems from his opportunity to play across from T.J. Watt, the odds are that he is going to be playing more snaps opposite Watt this year than he did last year, considering the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year missed seven games.
And on top of that, Watt wasn’t the same player when he returned from injury, which he basically admitted. Really, only three of his sacks, from the season opener, came with a fully healthy Watt on the field during the 2022 season.
But it’s never easy to put up double-digit sacks year after year. For every T.J. Watt, there’s a guy like Markus Golden, now backing the both of them up, who has that kind of potential to put up those numbers in any given season, but it more often doesn’t come together like that.
Highsmith was a full-time starter in 2021 and yet only had six sacks. Even if you split the difference and then account for maturity as he grew into a starting role, it would still be hard to duplicate the stat line he had last year.
And he should have Watt back taking some of his sacks away. But then again, the team’s overall sack production last year dropped in his absence. Watt playing at a high level means not just more sacks for himself, but for others as well.
On top of that, the addition of Golden could help keep Highsmith fresh longer during games, during which he could be more often deployed in pass-rushing situations with a higher-running motor. There’s certainly no reason that he can’t hit last year’s total again. It’s not supposed to be easy, but he has the talent, and the commitment to the craft. He wasn’t even satisfied with what he did last year, which tells you what you need to know.
So what do you think? Taking these factors and others into consideration, are you taking the over or under on 14.5 sacks for Steelers outside linebacker Alex Highsmith? Answer below and at the end of the series we’ll tally all your answers together to see where you stand before we get to training camp.
