Bringing back a series we’ve done throughout the rest of the offseason. I promise we’re not going all Embrace Debate on you, but Jonathan Heitritter and I have teamed up to debate Steelers-related topics we have genuine, good-faith disagreement over. Let us know who made the better argument and what side of the debate you come in on in the comments below.
Today’s topic is…
Will Jaylen Warren Crack 500 Rushing Yards This Season?
JOE – YES, HE WILL
After breaking out his rookie season, and the Pittsburgh Steelers’ willingness to give Najee Harris breathers, Warren will receive enough carries to break 500 yards. Last year, Warren ran for 379 yards on 77 carries while missing one game and in another receiving no carries. Although Warren likely won’t average 4.92 yards per carry (YPC), like last season, I don’t think it would be outrageous to expect him to average between 4.3 to 4.6 YPC. He always hits holes quickly and shows good burst to get positive yards. While opposing teams may be more aware of Warren this season, an improved offensive line should mean Warren won’t regress much if it all.
Last season, the Steelers ran the football 500 times, according to Pro Football Reference. Najee Harris will not exceed 350 carries, as when you look at his career carries his maximum rushing attempts in a season was 307 in 2021 and I don’t think the team wants to put too much weight on him with a capable backup. With an increased emphasis on the run game, I don’t think it would be surprising to see the Steelers come close to or maybe even surpassing 500 rushes this season.
So let’s break down those 500 rushing attempts this season. To start, say 80 rushes are either quarterback sneaks, scrambles, or jet sweeps. That leaves us 420 carries. Say Harris runs the ball 275 times this year; now Warren and the third string running back have 145 carries to split. I expect from this Warren would see 120 carries due to the team clearly wanting to give him the ball more often than last year. Now, if Warren averages only 4.3 yards per carry on 120 rushes, he will still have 516 rushing yards.
Obviously, injuries can totally change how all this looks, but based on how the offseason has gone I expect Warren to see a decent increase in usage this year. I think it is very possible for the Steelers to even surpass 500 rushing attempts and I think Warren will see enough volume to crack 500 yards. Remember, last season he was a rookie, and I don’t believe Warren’s peak as a player will be his rookie season.
JONATHAN – NO HE WON’T
Jaylen Warren burst onto the scene as a UDFA last season, carrying the ball 77 times for 379 yards (4.9 YPC) and one TD along with 28 receptions for 214 yards as a rookie. Heading into 2023, Warren is the clear backup to Najee Harris as Pittsburgh looks to embrace a bully ball mentality on offense, finding their identity in the running game with QB Kenny Pickett building off that with play-action passing.
While I expect Warren to do better in his second season in the league, I have my doubts that he will top 500 yards rushing. While he saw 31% of offensive snaps last season and worked in a fair amount with Harris last year, Harris dealt with a foot injury that hampered him for a good portion of the season. During the first half of the season, you could see that foot injury notably hampering Harris and his effectiveness on the field, making the inclusion of Warren more into the offense a necessity.
While Warren is a productive change-of-pace back and an effective pass catcher out of the backfield, Harris is this team’s feature back and figures to get a heavy workload in 2023 should he be healthy entering the season. This doesn’t mean that Warren will get phased out of the offense, but rather that Harris will get most of the opportunities as he looks to get his fifth-year option picked up before next season. Harris has the three-down skill set and the frame to be a bell cow back and was that for Pittsburgh as a rookie, amassing nearly 1,700 total yards from scrimmage. He hit 1,200 rushing yards as a rookie and being fully healthy heading into training camp and with an improved offensive line, I expect Harris to surpass that mark in 2023.
I see Warren getting plenty of opportunities as well, but not enough to crack 500 rushing yards. He was extremely effective on his touches last season, and I would figure that 4.9 YPC may regress closer to the mean. Pittsburgh also may find another back that may mix in more as an RB3/special teamer like Alfonso Graham or another back that the team picks up prior to the start of the season. In short, I do see Jaylen Warren having a good sophomore campaign –his role as a third-down back may even increase — but I do think he falls just short of the 500 yards rushing mark.
