The Steelers are now in their offseason after failing to reach the playoffs in 2022, coming up just a game short of sneaking in as the seventh seed. They needed help in week 18 and only got some of it, so instead they sat home and watched the playoffs with the rest of us.
On tap is figuring out how to be on the field in January and February instead of being a spectator. They started out 2-6, digging a hole that proved too deep to dig out of even if they managed to go 7-2 in the second half of the year.
Starting from the end of the regular season and leading all the way up to the beginning of the 2023 season, there are plenty of questions that need answered, starting with who will be the offensive coordinator. Which free agents will be kept? Who might be let go due to their salary? How might they tackle free agency with this new front office? We’ll try to frame the conversation in relevant ways as long as you stick with us throughout this offseason, as we have for many years.
Question: After registering 500 rushing attempts in 2022, will the Steelers have more or fewer this year?
Let’s establish one fact right out of the gate. The Steelers recording 500 rushing attempts last season is a lot. It was the 10th-most in the league last season, and they haven’t even come close to hitting that—even when factoring in an extra game—in some time. The last time Pittsburgh came within even 50 rushing attempts was in 2010 with 471 attempts, the last time they ranked inside the top 10 in attempts.
So let’s just make it clear that we’re talking about a heavy workload. If the Steelers duplicate the rushing attempts from last season, it will reflect a serious commitment to running the ball. Pittsburgh ranked second in rushing attempts in games nine through 17 of last season with 310, behind only Washington’s 329.
The fact that they leaned more heavily toward the run in the second half of the season, when they had their most success, does suggest a greater likelihood that they could follow a similar formula in 2023 and even attempt more runs.
They averaged 34.4 rushing attempts per game over the final nine games. To record 500 rushes over a 170-game season, they would only have to average 29.4 rushes per game, or a full five carries fewer than they were already pacing over the length of most of last year.
Najee Harris likely won’t spend the first half of the season nursing a foot injury, either, and Jaylen Warren will be ready to hit the ground running in year two. On the other hand, we should also expect the passing game to take a considerable step forward in quarterback Kenny Pickett’s second season.
Arguably the biggest reason they ran the ball as much as they did was because the passing game wasn’t where they needed it to be. It stands a much better chance of being a more potent and reliable asset in 2023, so averaging almost 30 rushing attempts per game might be a stretch.
And this also has to consider drive length and time of possession. The Steelers had an inordinately long drive length last year, averaging more plays per drive than anybody in the league. That might not be the case again this year, so that could translate to fewer plays run.
