A primer of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ training camp roster as they get ready to report to Latrobe in exactly two weeks from today. I want to provide a slightly different spin on evaluating the roster. In describing their chances to make the 53, you can put any player into one of six buckets: locks, near-locks, inside-looking-out, on the bubble, outside-looking-in, and longshots.
We’ll work our way up by starting from the bottom. I’ll list the players considered longshots to make the 53-man roster, this does not include practice squad odds, with rough percentages that they will make it. This assumes if everyone stays healthy. While that won’t happen, it’s impossible to create percentages based off the unknowns that are injuries. We’ll break up each bucket into a separate article and put everything together at the end.
Today, we’ll recap each installment we’ve done and put everything together. By tier from best to worst odds, here’s how each player was ranked.
STEELERS LOCKS (95%+ CHANCE OF MAKING 53 MAN ROSTER)
K Chris Boswell (100%)
WR Chase Claypool (100%)
OC Mason Cole (100%)
OG James Daniels (100%)
FS Minkah Fitzpatrick (100%)
TE Pat Freiermuth (100%)
RB Najee Harris (100%)
DT Cam Heyward (100%)
EDGE Alex Highsmith (100%)
ILB Myles Jack (100%)
WR Diontae Johnson (100%)
DL DeMarvin Leal (100%)
OT Dan Moore Jr. (100%)
OT Chukwuma Okorafor (100%)
WR George Pickens (100%)
QB Kenny Pickett (100%)
CB Cam Sutton (100%)
QB Mitch Trubisky (100%)
CB Levi Wallace (100%)
EDGE TJ Watt (100%)
OG Kevin Dotson (99%)
SS Terrell Edmunds (99%)
DL Larry Ogunjobi (99%)
TE Zach Gentry (98%)
NT Tyson Alualu (95%)
ILB Devin Bush (95%)
CB Ahkello Witherspoon (95%)
STEELERS’ NEAR-LOCKS (75%-94% CHANCE OF MAKING 53 MAN ROSTER)
WR Calvin Austin III (94%)
DE Chris Wormley (94%)
RB Benny Snell (90%)
OT Joe Haeg (90%)
SS Miles Killebrew (90%)
LS Christian Kuntz (90%)
FS Tre Norwood (90%)
iOL Kendrick Green (85%)
iOL JC Hassenauer (85%)
NT Montravius Adams (80%)
ILB Robert Spillane (80%)
WR Gunner Olszewski (80%)
STEELERS INSIDE-LOOKING-OUT (56%-74% CHANCE OF MAKING 53 MAN ROSTER)
QB Mason Rudolph (74%)
FB Derek Watt (74%)
ILB Marcus Allen (70%)
EDGE Genard Avery (66%)
WR Miles Boykin (60%)
STEELERS SQUARELY ON THE BUBBLE (41%-55% CHANCE OF MAKING 53-MAN ROSTER)
ILB Ulysees Gilbert III (55%)
P Pressley Harvin III (55%)
H-Back Connor Heyward (55%)
DB Damontae Kazee (55%)
DE Isaiahh Loudermilk (55%)
EDGE Derrek Tuszka (55%)
CB Justin Layne (55%)
OL John Leglue (51%)
CB Arthur Maulet (51%)
ILB Buddy Johnson (50%)
CB James Pierre (49%)
PLAYERS OUTSIDE-LOOKING-IN (11%-40% CHANCE OF MAKING ROSTER)
WR Anthony Miller (40%)
EDGE Tuzar Skipper (40%)
QB Chris Oladokun (33%)
TE Kevin Rader (33%)
ILB Mark Robinson (33%)
RB Anthony McFarland (33%)
DL Henry Mondeaux (25%)
RB Jaylen Warren (25%)
WR Cody White (25%)
RB Mataeo Durant (20%)
SS Karl Joseph (20%)
OT Trent Scott (20%)
NT Carlos Davis (15%)
STEELERS’ ROSTER LONGSHOTS (<10% CHANCE TO MAKE 53-MAN ROSTER)
OT Chaz Green (10%)
EDGE Tyree Johnson (10%)
EDGE T.D. Moultry (10%)
OG Chris Owens (10%)
WR Steven Sims (10%)
SS Donovan Stiner (10%)
DT Doug Costin (5%)
DT Khalil Davis (5%)
FB Trey Edmunds (5%)
P Cameron Nizialek (5%)
EDGE Delontae Scott (5%)
WR Tyler Snead (5%)
CB Chris Steele (5%)
TE Jace Sternberger (5%)
OT Jordan Tucker (5%)
OT Jake Dixon (1%)
OG Nate Gilliam (1%)
DL Donovan Jeter (1%)
CB Carlins Platel (1%)
K Nick Sciba (1%)
DB Linden Stephens (1%)
WR Tyler Vaughns (1%)
Minor note that I’ve included the newly-signed Doug Costin to the list, giving him a 5% chance of making the team largely due to him already having a fair amount of NFL experience. That’ll help him a bit this summer.
Overall, the list looks pretty realistic. Some percentages may feel low but it’s 90 guys for a 53-man roster and not considering the doors injuries will inevitably open. Looking back, it might have been more accurate to bump James Pierre’s chances up a little bit from say 49 to 55%. This team will want/need a 4th outside cornerback on the roster and Justin Layne isn’t comfortably that guy. But Pierre is still on the bubble and needs to have a strong showing this summer to cement his spot. Perhaps Arthur Maulet would slightly dip from 51 to 49% given all the competition at slot corner: Damontae Kazee, Tre Norwood, and Cam Sutton if he plays inside more often. Roster construction will be key. If the team carries seven defensive linemen for the first time possibly ever, they will have to be one short elsewhere on the roster. One less receiver, offensive lineman, linebacker, or DB.
Examining the list as a whole, I very much unintentionally projected 54 players with a 51%+ chance of making the roster. So almost perfect with the 53 who will actually make the trip to Cincinnati. There’s only a handful of true longshots, just seven names with a 1% chance and they make up rookies and futures players with a very tough path, even if we consider potential injuries.
I’ll post an updated roster prediction next week right before camp opens to reflect changes from my last one right after the draft concluded.
