As is yearly tradition, we’re compiling pre-draft workout numbers and referencing them to overall trends the Pittsburgh Steelers have shown in drafting each position. All in an effort to create the best predictor as to who the team will take later this April.
From the Mike Tomlin-era to present, 2007 to 2021, we’re creating a threshold criteria position-by-position and see who fits best.
A couple things before we start this year’s version. It was great to have the NFL Combine back this year but it came with one issue. A lot of players didn’t workout or only did partial testing, largely due the longer and later workout schedule players went through. For example, the bench press was held on the same day as other testing and many players decided to opt out. So I am tweaking the numbers I examine this year.
Here’s how it will work. First, I’m only analyzing players who were Combine invites or else I’d be here for days searching all prospects. That’s in line with what I’ve done in the past. If a player was a DNP for one test at the Combine, I will use his Pro Day number even if it was a timed event (which I had not included in the past because of the differing times and potentially fast numbers). Meaning, if a player didn’t run the 40 at Indy but ran it at his Pro Day, it will count. However, if a player ran the 40 at the Combine and at his Pro Day, I will roll with the Combine time, even if the Pro Day number was lower/better.
If a player participated in a “verifiable number” event: bench press, broad jump, or vertical jump, I will take the Combine or Pro Day numbers, whichever is higher. That is also the same methodology as I’ve used in the past.
Basically, I’m just opening up the eligibility to get more players on the list. If I was as rigid as past years, these lists would look very empty. Based on Combine data alone, no WRs would’ve checked every box and only one would’ve been one away, making this exercise fruitless.
Ok. Let’s take a look at WR. In a rare move, the team didn’t draft a receiver last year so the names and thresholds all remain the same. Here’s every WR drafted since Mike Tomlin arrived.
2020: CHASE CLAYPOOL
Height: 6042
Weight: 238
40 Time: 4.42
Vertical: 40.5″
Broad: 10’6″
Short Shuttle: DNP
Three-Cone: DNP
Bench: 19
Hand Size: 9 7/8″
2019: DIONTAE JOHNSON
Height: 5104
Weight: 183
40 Time: 4.53
Vertical: 33.5″
Broad: 10’3″
Short Shuttle: 4.45
Three-Cone: 7.09
Bench: 15
Hand Size: 9″
2018: JAMES WASHINGTON
Height: 5110
Weight: 213
40 Time: 4.54
Vertical: 34.5″
Broad: 10’0″
Short Shuttle: 4.32
Three-Cone: 7.11
Bench: 14
Hand Size: 9 3/4″
2017: JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER
Height: 6012
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.54
Vertical: 33.5″
Broad: 10’3″
Short Shuttle: N/A
Three-Cone: N/A
Bench: 15
Hand Size: 10 1/2″
2016: DEMARCUS AYERS
Height: 5093
Weight: 182
40 Time: 4.72
Vertical: 35″
Broad: 10’3”
Short Shuttle N/A
Three-Cone: N/A
Bench: N/A
Hand Size: 9 1/4″
2015: SAMMIE COATES
Height: 6012
Weight: 212
40 Time: 4.43
Vertical: 41.5″
Broad: 10’11”
Short Shuttle 4.06
Three-Cone: 6.98
Bench: 23
Hand Size: 9 3/8″
2014: MARTAVIS BRYANT
Height: 6036
Weight: 211
40 Time: 4.42
Vertical: 39″
Broad: 10’4″
Short Shuttle 4.15
Three-Cone: 7.18
Bench: 16
Hand Size: 9 1/2″
2013: MARKUS WHEATON
Height: 5110
Weight: 189
40 Time: 4.45
Vertical: 37″
Broad: 10’0″
Short Shuttle 4.02
Three-Cone: 6.80
Bench: 20
Hand Size: 9 1/8″
JUSTIN BROWN
Height: 6031
Weight: 207
40 Time: 4.60
Vertical: 30.5″
Broad: 9’9″
Short Shuttle N/A
Three-Cone: N/A
Bench: 8
Hand Size: 9 5/8″
2012: TONEY CLEMONS
Height: 6021
Weight: 210
40 Time: 4.40
Vertical: 36″
Broad: 10’8″
Short Shuttle N/A
Three-Cone: N/A
Bench: 11
Hand Size: 9 1/2″
2010: EMMANUEL SANDERS
Height: 5107
Weight: 186
40 Time: 4.41
Vertical: 39.5″
Broad: 10’6″
Short Shuttle 4.10
Three-Cone: 6.64
Bench: 12
Hand Size: 9 1/4″
ANTONIO BROWN
Height: 5101
Weight: 186
40 Time: 4.57
Vertical: 33.5″
Broad: 8’9″
Short Shuttle 4.18
Three-Cone: 6.98
Bench: 13
Hand Size: 9″
2009: MIKE WALLACE
Height: 6003
Weight: 199
40 Time: 4.33
Vertical: 40″
Broad: 10’9″
Short Shuttle 4.27
Three-Cone: 6.90
Bench: 14
Hand Size: 9″
2008: LIMAS SWEED
Height: 6037
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.55
Vertical: 37.5″
Broad: 10’8″
Short Shuttle N/A
Three-Cone: N/A
Bench: N/A
Hand Size: 9 1/2″
2007: DALLAS BAKER
Height: 6031
Weight: 208
40 Time: 4.49
Vertical: 36″
Broad: 10’9″
Short Shuttle 4.19
Three-Cone: 6.69
Bench: N/A
Hand Size: 10 1/8″
Our criteria remains unchanged. Here’s the threshold list we’ll be looking at. A Steelers’ receiver drafted is…
Height: 5’10+ (13 of 14 players drafted)
Weight: 180+ (14 of 14)
40 Time: <4.57 (12 of 14)
Vert: 33+(13 of 14)
Broad: 10+ (12 of 14)
Hand Size: 9+ (10 of 10)
Short Shuttle: Sub 4.30 (7 of 9)
Three-Cone: Sub 7.10 (7 of 9)
Bench: 10+ (10 of 11)
Four receivers in this year’s draft class checked every single one of those nine boxes. They are:
Name/School | Height | Weight | Hand Size | 40 Time | Bench | Vert | Broad | SS | 3 Cone |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bo Melton/Rutgers | 5110 | 189 | 9 | 4.34 | 18 | 38 | 10’1″ | 4.10 | 6.98 |
Jalen Nailor/Michigan St | 5112 | 186 | 9 1/8 | 4.50 | 14 | 38 | 10’8″ | 4.28 | 7.03 |
Braylon Sanders/Ole Miss | 6001 | 194 | 10 | 4.48 | 12 | 34.5 | 10’1″ | 4.25 | 6.96 |
Christian Watson/NDSU | 6041 | 208 | 10 1/8 | 4.36 | 18 | 38.5 | 11’4″ | 4.19 | 6.96 |
Watson is a predictable name with one of the freakiest workouts we’ve ever seen. The other three names are less known and more surprising. Melton is a fun sleeper with great quickness who had a strong Senior Bowl week. Sanders as a true feast/famine deep threat. Nailor is a similar big-play threat to Sanders in stats but without elite timed speed. Watson will be a Day 2 pick, maybe even sneak late Round 1, while the rest are more likely Day 3 players. Melton has a chance at late Day 2.
Three more players missed checking every box by just one category. They are:
Kevin Austin Jr./Notre Dame – Bench (DNP)
Khalil Shakir/Boise State – Three-Cone (7.28)
Jalen Tolbert/South Alabama – Bench (DNP)
Austin and Tolbert are height/speed guys. Austin Jr. took a long time to come on-scene and battled off-field issues but put things together in 2021. Tolbert was one of the NCAA’s best deep threats this past year. Shakir broke out for his first 1,000-yard campaign in 2021 and was active in their run game. Tolbert may be a Day 2 guy, while the others are likely to go Day 3.
Our next study will look at cornerbacks. You’ll see that later this week.