As Wednesday winds down, the Pittsburgh Steelers remain 7.5-point road favorites over the Chicago Bears and that’s not overly surprising. With that line not likely to budge much between now and the kickoff of Sunday’s game at Soldier Field, I thought it would be worth looking at how the Steelers have fared when favored by 7-points or more under head coach Mike Tomlin.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Steelers have been favored by 7-points or more a total of 44 times under Tomlin to date. They have a 36-8 record in those games. However, just an 11-5 record when favored by 7 or more points on the road.
Those eight losses probably aren’t hard for Steelers fans to forget, but in case you don’t remember them all, I have them tabled up for you below along with a few differential numbers from each game.
| DATE | KO TIME | OPP | WK# | GM# | DAY | SCORE | LINE | TO DIF | XPL DIF | SCK DIF | TOT DIF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/18/07 | 4:05 | @NYJ | 11 | 10 | Sun | 16-19 OT | -9.5 | -1 | 2 | -4 | -3 |
| 11/22/09 | 1:00 | @KAN | 11 | 10 | Sun | 24-27 OT | -11.5 | -2 | -3 | 3 | -2 |
| 12/6/09 | 1:02 | OAK | 13 | 12 | Sun | 24-27 | -15 | -1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 12/10/09 | 8:21 | @CLE | 14 | 13 | Thu | 6-13 | -10 | 0 | -2 | -7 | -9 |
| 12/9/12 | 1:02 | SDG | 14 | 13 | Sun | 24-34 | -7.5 | -2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 9/28/14 | 1:03 | TAM | 4 | 4 | Sun | 24-27 | -7.5 | 0 | -2 | -4 | -6 |
| 12/27/15 | 1:02 | @BAL | 16 | 15 | Sun | 17-20 | -10 | -3 | 2 | -2 | -3 |
| 10/16/16 | 1:02 | @MIA | 6 | 6 | Sun | 15-30 | -7.5 | -2 | -4 | -2 | -8 |
So, are there any common traits in those 8 loses? Well, for starters, the Steelers failed to win the turnover battle in all 8 of those losses and they outright lost it in 6 of them. If you look at the sack differential in each game, the Steelers lost that battle by two or more in 5 of those 8 losses. As far as total combined turnover, explosive play and sack differentials, the Steelers only had a positive number in just one of those 8 games, the 2009 loss to the Oakland Raiders.
The Bears will be quarterback Sunday by Mike Glennon and he just happens to be the quarterback responsible for one of those 8 losses above, which was the 2014 Tampa Bay Buccaneers win over the Steelers at Heinz Field. The Steelers were 7.5 home favorites in that game.
The Steelers certainly have had some brutal losses under Tomlin dating back to 2007. If they lose Sunday to the Bears in Chicago, a place where past Pittsburgh teams have won just once in 12 prior attempts dating back in 1936, such a loss will certainly be hard to forget.
