NFL Media senior analyst Gil Brandt has been associated with the league since 1960 and while he’s now 84 years of age, he still has a pretty good pulse on draft prospects.
On Wednesday, Brandt released his top 150 players for the 2017 NFL Draft and it got me wondering about how he did last year with his rankings.
Personally, I think a draft analyst should only be judged closely by his or her top 100 and for obvious reasons. After all, that’s roughly three full rounds of players. With that said, below is a table that includes Brandt’s final top 100 players from 2016 along with where each player wound up being selected overall. I also included how far Brandt was off in the last column. A negative number means he was too high on a player while a negative number indicates he was too low on a player.
So, what’s a good margin of error? For the sake of this exercise and until one of you can present another number and reason supporting it, I used a margin of error of 8 to either side in the top 30.
When you look at Brandt’s top 30 ranked players from 2016 you’ll notice that 8 are construed as being big misses as it relates to being off by more than 8 picks to either side. In short, Brandt hit on 73.33% of his top 30 as it relates to being within 8 picks of where the player was ultimately selected.
Of the 31 players that wound up being drafted in the first round last year, Brandt had all but 6 of them ranked in his top 31. In fact, his biggest first round miss wound up being cornerback Artie Burns, who the Pittsburgh Steelers selected 25th overall. Brandt had Burns ranked 99th overall, which one of his biggest misses in his top 100 ranked players.
Now, what’s a good margin of error for players ranked 31-60? How about 16 to either side, or essentially a half a round leeway? Using that criteria, Brant missed on 11 of his next 30 ranked players for a success rate of 63.3%.
As for players ranked 61-100, I used a margin of error of 32 and Brandt missed on 18 of 40 players for a success rate of 55%.
In summation, of Brandt’s top 100 players in 2016, only 21 of them wound up being selected outside the top 100 selections for a 79% success rate.
I’m certainly open to suggestions as to how to best grade top 100 picks moving forward and I hope to get some feedback in the comments below.
| GB RANK | PLAYER | ACTUAL Pick # | TM | MISS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss | 13 | MIA | -12 |
| 2 | Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State | 5 | JAX | -3 |
| 3 | Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State | 4 | DAL | -1 |
| 4 | Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State | 3 | SDG | 1 |
| 5 | Myles Jack, OLB, UCLA | 36 | JAX | -31 |
| 6 | DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon | 7 | SFO | -1 |
| 7 | Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State | 2 | PHI | 5 |
| 8 | Jared Goff, QB, California | 1 | LAR | 7 |
| 9 | Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame | 6 | BAL | 3 |
| 10 | Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State | 8 | TEN | 2 |
| 11 | Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville | 12 | NOR | -1 |
| 12 | Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia | 9 | CHI | 3 |
| 13 | A’Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama | 46 | DET | -33 |
| 14 | Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida | 11 | TAM | 3 |
| 15 | Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State | 20 | NYJ | -5 |
| 16 | Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson | 33 | TEN | -17 |
| 17 | Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor | 15 | CLE | 2 |
| 18 | Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama | 41 | BUF | -23 |
| 19 | Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State | 16 | DET | 3 |
| 20 | Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis | 26 | DEN | -6 |
| 21 | Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama | 49 | SEA | -28 |
| 22 | Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech | 30 | CAR | -8 |
| 23 | Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss | 29 | ARI | -6 |
| 24 | Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson | 19 | BUF | 5 |
| 25 | Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama | 18 | IND | 7 |
| 26 | Keanu Neal, S, Florida | 17 | ATL | 9 |
| 27 | Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame | 21 | HOU | 6 |
| 28 | Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss | 23 | MIN | 5 |
| 29 | Josh Doctson, WR, TCU | 22 | WAS | 7 |
| 30 | Kamalei Correa, DE, Boise State | 42 | BAL | -12 |
| 31 | William Jackson III, CB, Houston | 24 | CIN | 7 |
| 32 | Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama | 45 | TEN | -13 |
| 33 | Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas | 35 | SDG | -2 |
| 34 | Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana | 48 | GNB | -14 |
| 35 | Karl Joseph, S, West Virginia | 14 | OAK | 21 |
| 36 | Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State | 32 | CLE | 4 |
| 37 | Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State | 10 | NYG | 27 |
| 38 | Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson | 54 | MIN | -16 |
| 39 | Sterling Shepard, WR, Oklahoma | 40 | NYG | -1 |
| 40 | Jihad Ward, DE, Illinois | 44 | OAK | -4 |
| 41 | Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi State | 37 | KAN | 4 |
| 42 | Austin Johnson, DT, Penn State | 43 | TEN | -1 |
| 43 | Cody Whitehair, OG, Kansas State | 56 | CHI | -13 |
| 44 | Kenny Clark, DT, UCLA | 27 | GNB | 17 |
| 45 | T.J. Green, S, Clemson | 57 | IND | -12 |
| 46 | Germain Ifedi, OG, Texas A&M | 31 | SEA | 15 |
| 47 | Jonathan Bullard, DT, Florida | 72 | CHI | -25 |
| 48 | Vonn Bell, S, Ohio State | 61 | NOR | -13 |
| 49 | Su’a Cravens, OLB, USC | 53 | WAS | -4 |
| 50 | Tyler Boyd, WR, Pittsburgh | 55 | CIN | -5 |
| 51 | Darian Thompson, S, Boise State | 71 | NYG | -20 |
| 52 | Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor | 122 | CIN | -70 |
| 53 | Devontae Booker, RB, Utah | 136 | DEN | -83 |
| 54 | Maliek Collins, DT, Nebraska | 67 | DAL | -13 |
| 55 | Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech | 84 | WAS | -29 |
| 56 | Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State | 100 | OAK | -44 |
| 57 | Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State | 47 | NOR | 10 |
| 58 | Sean Davis, CB, Maryland | 58 | PIT | 0 |
| 59 | Jordan Jenkins, OLB, Georgia | 83 | NYJ | -24 |
| 60 | Austin Hooper, TE, Stanford | 81 | ATL | -21 |
| 61 | Joshua Garnett, OG, Stanford | 28 | SFO | 33 |
| 62 | Evan Boehm, C, Missouri | 128 | ARI | -66 |
| 63 | C.J. Prosise, RB, Notre Dame | 90 | SEA | -27 |
| 64 | Jacoby Brissett, QB, North Carolina State | 91 | NWE | -27 |
| 65 | Deion Jones, OLB, LSU | 52 | ATL | 13 |
| 66 | Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky | 39 | TAM | 27 |
| 67 | Zack Sanchez, CB, Oklahoma | 141 | CAR | -74 |
| 68 | Le’Raven Clark, OT, Texas Tech | 82 | IND | -14 |
| 69 | Nick Vannett, TE, Ohio State | 94 | SEA | -25 |
| 70 | Roberto Aguayo, K, Florida State | 59 | TAM | 11 |
| 71 | Jordan Howard, RB, Indiana | 150 | CHI | -79 |
| 72 | Max Tuerk, C, USC | 66 | SDG | 6 |
| 73 | Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan State | 75 | OAK | -2 |
| 74 | Christian Westerman, OG, Arizona State | 161 | CIN | -87 |
| 75 | Braxton Miller, WR, Ohio State | 85 | HOU | -10 |
| 76 | Hassan Ridgeway, DT, Texas | 116 | IND | -40 |
| 77 | Kyler Fackrell, OLB, Utah State | 88 | GNB | -11 |
| 78 | Shon Coleman, OT, Auburn | 76 | CLE | 2 |
| 79 | Yannick Ngakoue, DE, Maryland | 69 | JAX | 10 |
| 80 | Kenneth Dixon, RB, Louisiana Tech | 134 | BAL | -54 |
| 81 | Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State | 135 | DAL | -54 |
| 82 | Miles Killebrew, S, Southern Utah | 111 | DET | -29 |
| 83 | DeAndre Houston-Carson, S, William & Mary | 185 | CHI | -102 |
| 84 | Isaac Seumalo, OG, Oregon State | 79 | PHI | 5 |
| 85 | Willie Beavers, OT, Western Michigan | 121 | MIN | -36 |
| 86 | Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn State | 51 | NYJ | 35 |
| 87 | Xavien Howard, CB, Baylor | 38 | MIA | 49 |
| 88 | Will Redmond, CB, Mississippi State | 68 | SFO | 20 |
| 89 | Joshua Perry, ILB, Ohio State | 102 | SDG | -13 |
| 90 | Nick Kwiatkoski, ILB, West Virginia | 113 | CHI | -23 |
| 91 | Nick Martin, OG, Notre Dame | 50 | HOU | 41 |
| 92 | Cyrus Jones, CB, Alabama | 60 | NWE | 32 |
| 93 | Jerald Hawkins, OT, LSU | 123 | PIT | -30 |
| 94 | Vadal Alexander, OG, LSU | 234 | OAK | -140 |
| 95 | Adam Gotsis, DT, Georgia Tech | 63 | DEN | 32 |
| 96 | Blake Martinez, ILB, Stanford | 131 | GNB | -35 |
| 97 | Joe Dahl, OG, Washington State | 151 | DET | -54 |
| 98 | Sheldon Day, DT, Notre Dame | 103 | JAX | -5 |
| 99 | Artie Burns, CB, Miami (Fla.) | 25 | PIT | 74 |
| 100 | Kolby Listenbee, WR, TCU | 192 | BUF | -92 |
