Being as the Pittsburgh Steelers enter their Week 8 bye in sole possession of first place in the AFC North division, it’s easy to reason that they still have a good shot at not only making the playoffs, but winning their seventh Lombardi trophy as well. After all, the team should exit their bye week the healthiest they’ve been all season. With that said, history tells us that the 2016 Steelers team has no shot at winning the Super Bowl this year based solely on how their defense has played against the pass in their first 7 regular season games.
As many of you know, I am a huge fan of the ANY/A (adjusted net yards per passing attempt) stat as not only have I studied the workings of it for several years now, I have also researched the history of it for some time now. In my latest research of the history related to defensive ANY/A stat after seven games played by all NFL teams in any one season dating back to 1982, I found a statistical trend that’s very hard to ignore.
First, let me inform you that the Steelers defensive ANY/A number after their first 7 games of 2016 season is a very lofty 7.12, so keep that number in the front of your mind as we move forward.
Now for the history related to team’s defensive ANY/A stats after 7 games played in a single season dating back to 1982.
Below you will see a table of defensive passing stats of the 136 teams that made the final four dating back to 1982 and they are sorted by the lowest ANY/A to the highest.
As you can see, only four times since 1982 has a team with a defensive ANY/A of 7.00 or more after their first 7 games played in any regular season made the final four and only two of those teams went on to play in the Super Bowl. Both of those teams, the 2014 Seattle Seahawks and the 2008 Arizona Cardinals, wound up on the wrong side of confetti.
In short, should the Steelers go on to win the Super Bowl this season, they would become the first team to do so with a defensive ANY/A stat of 6.09 greater after the first 7 weeks of the season dating back to 1982. That would be one hell of an accomplishment being as we’re dealing with 34 years of statistical data.
The four times that the Steelers have made it to the Super Bowl since 1982, their defensive ANY/A stat after their first 7 games of each of those seasons was 5.33 or lower. Additionally, the average defensive ANY/A stat of the last 34 Super Bowl champions after the first 7 weeks of the regular season is 4.27 and only 9 times has a team won a Super Bowl with a defensive ANY/a greater than 5.00 after their first 7 games dating back to 1982.
Can the Steelers break this long trend this season? We’ll have to wait and see. That defense of theirs better start playing a LOT better following the team’s bye week.
Defensive ANY/A Passing Stats For Final Four Teams (1982-2015)
Tm | Year | G | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | NYds | TD | Int | Sk | SkYds | Rate | ANY/A | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MIA | 1982 | 7 | 82 | 160 | 51.3 | 748 | 7 | 15 | 18 | 170 | 44.2 | 1.20 | SB Loser |
GNB | 1996 | 7 | 122 | 247 | 49.4 | 1227 | 5 | 20 | 14 | 80 | 38.3 | 1.64 | SB Winner |
TAM | 2002 | 7 | 131 | 261 | 50.2 | 1148 | 3 | 13 | 21 | 136 | 47.5 | 2.21 | SB Winner |
WAS | 1991 | 7 | 121 | 232 | 52.2 | 1116 | 4 | 14 | 23 | 150 | 48.9 | 2.22 | SB Winner |
NYG | 1990 | 7 | 126 | 212 | 59.4 | 1113 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 78 | 53.8 | 2.51 | SB Winner |
DAL | 1994 | 7 | 108 | 225 | 48 | 1074 | 5 | 12 | 23 | 145 | 49.8 | 2.56 | Final 4 |
CLE | 1987 | 7 | 99 | 217 | 45.6 | 1070 | 6 | 13 | 14 | 110 | 47 | 2.62 | Final 4 |
NYJ | 1982 | 7 | 108 | 212 | 50.9 | 1108 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 152 | 53.2 | 2.81 | Final 4 |
BUF | 1993 | 7 | 128 | 242 | 52.9 | 1426 | 6 | 17 | 16 | 91 | 51.3 | 3.03 | SB Loser |
JAX | 1999 | 7 | 119 | 222 | 53.6 | 1073 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 167 | 61.8 | 3.08 | Final 4 |
DEN | 2015 | 7 | 152 | 243 | 62.6 | 1203 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 195 | 69.6 | 3.30 | SB Winner |
DEN | 1987 | 7 | 103 | 194 | 53.1 | 1146 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 91 | 55.3 | 3.31 | SB Loser |
CHI | 2006 | 7 | 129 | 222 | 58.1 | 1133 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 161 | 63.9 | 3.33 | SB Loser |
NOR | 2009 | 7 | 137 | 267 | 51.3 | 1567 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 98 | 53.3 | 3.40 | SB Winner |
MIA | 1984 | 7 | 135 | 249 | 54.2 | 1369 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 131 | 59 | 3.49 | SB Loser |
CLE | 1989 | 7 | 96 | 196 | 49 | 1132 | 8 | 12 | 19 | 165 | 58.6 | 3.50 | Final 4 |
STL | 1999 | 7 | 132 | 253 | 52.2 | 1352 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 105 | 58 | 3.56 | SB Winner |
SFO | 1997 | 7 | 106 | 215 | 49.3 | 1136 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 154 | 62.4 | 3.56 | Final 4 |
SEA | 2013 | 7 | 141 | 241 | 58.5 | 1334 | 6 | 11 | 23 | 166 | 66.1 | 3.63 | SB Winner |
IND | 2009 | 7 | 153 | 253 | 60.5 | 1261 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 142 | 68 | 3.68 | SB Loser |
WAS | 1986 | 7 | 137 | 240 | 57.1 | 1317 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 189 | 67.8 | 3.72 | Final 4 |
CAR | 2015 | 7 | 173 | 302 | 57.3 | 1602 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 99 | 64.5 | 3.73 | SB Loser |
CHI | 1988 | 7 | 111 | 237 | 46.8 | 1263 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 201 | 59.5 | 3.76 | Final 4 |
PIT | 2008 | 7 | 146 | 237 | 61.6 | 1151 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 197 | 75 | 3.82 | SB Winner |
BAL | 2000 | 7 | 139 | 235 | 59.1 | 1415 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 60 | 61.9 | 3.84 | SB Winner |
SFO | 1983 | 7 | 129 | 218 | 59.2 | 1320 | 8 | 12 | 27 | 208 | 69.9 | 3.84 | Final 4 |
CHI | 1985 | 7 | 131 | 253 | 51.8 | 1600 | 10 | 16 | 28 | 195 | 61.6 | 3.84 | SB Winner |
DEN | 1989 | 7 | 133 | 231 | 57.6 | 1433 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 116 | 63.2 | 3.89 | SB Loser |
DAL | 1982 | 7 | 120 | 232 | 51.7 | 1367 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 218 | 64 | 3.91 | Final 4 |
PIT | 2001 | 7 | 118 | 205 | 57.6 | 1086 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 167 | 72.7 | 3.93 | Final 4 |
NYG | 1986 | 7 | 116 | 224 | 51.8 | 1239 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 161 | 63.8 | 3.96 | SB Winner |
BAL | 2011 | 7 | 119 | 228 | 52.2 | 1219 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 170 | 65.5 | 3.97 | Final 4 |
SFO | 1988 | 7 | 129 | 228 | 56.6 | 1299 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 171 | 71.7 | 4.00 | SB Winner |
CHI | 1984 | 7 | 74 | 172 | 43 | 1103 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 189 | 56.6 | 4.01 | Final 4 |
MIN | 1998 | 7 | 146 | 263 | 55.5 | 1542 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 98 | 65.1 | 4.03 | Final 4 |
PIT | 1984 | 7 | 119 | 213 | 55.9 | 1387 | 9 | 14 | 17 | 120 | 64.8 | 4.07 | Final 4 |
NWE | 2003 | 7 | 150 | 281 | 53.4 | 1657 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 99 | 59.9 | 4.10 | SB Winner |
NWE | 2007 | 7 | 136 | 226 | 60.2 | 1275 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 163 | 73.6 | 4.10 | SB Loser |
NYJ | 2009 | 7 | 128 | 237 | 54 | 1270 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 51 | 63.6 | 4.22 | Final 4 |
PHI | 2002 | 7 | 133 | 224 | 59.4 | 1259 | 5 | 7 | 23 | 121 | 71.7 | 4.23 | Final 4 |
PHI | 2001 | 7 | 128 | 228 | 56.1 | 1160 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 138 | 72.2 | 4.24 | Final 4 |
PIT | 1994 | 7 | 110 | 201 | 54.7 | 1214 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 132 | 68.5 | 4.27 | Final 4 |
SFO | 1984 | 7 | 131 | 245 | 53.5 | 1475 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 108 | 64.4 | 4.27 | SB Winner |
WAS | 1987 | 7 | 132 | 252 | 52.4 | 1471 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 238 | 68.4 | 4.28 | SB Winner |
NYJ | 1998 | 7 | 132 | 243 | 54.3 | 1379 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 115 | 67.1 | 4.30 | Final 4 |
RAI | 1983 | 7 | 119 | 223 | 53.4 | 1217 | 7 | 6 | 29 | 240 | 73 | 4.31 | SB Winner |
CHI | 2010 | 7 | 162 | 264 | 61.4 | 1512 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 82 | 69.2 | 4.32 | Final 4 |
BAL | 2008 | 7 | 112 | 213 | 52.6 | 1247 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 120 | 67.6 | 4.38 | Final 4 |
DEN | 1986 | 7 | 148 | 264 | 56.1 | 1516 | 9 | 9 | 29 | 266 | 74.1 | 4.41 | SB Loser |
PIT | 2005 | 7 | 150 | 244 | 61.5 | 1483 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 150 | 72.7 | 4.43 | SB Winner |
GNB | 2010 | 7 | 147 | 250 | 58.8 | 1499 | 8 | 10 | 22 | 154 | 72.6 | 4.44 | SB Winner |
GNB | 1995 | 7 | 140 | 258 | 54.3 | 1283 | 11 | 6 | 18 | 134 | 74.7 | 4.47 | Final 4 |
CAR | 1996 | 7 | 129 | 233 | 55.4 | 1293 | 7 | 6 | 26 | 177 | 73.8 | 4.49 | Final 4 |
PIT | 2004 | 7 | 127 | 232 | 54.7 | 1355 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 114 | 69.8 | 4.50 | Final 4 |
GNB | 1997 | 7 | 131 | 245 | 53.5 | 1368 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 80 | 68.5 | 4.51 | SB Loser |
TAM | 1999 | 7 | 119 | 222 | 53.6 | 1211 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 151 | 71.9 | 4.51 | Final 4 |
DEN | 1997 | 7 | 119 | 205 | 58 | 1194 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 132 | 76.2 | 4.58 | SB Winner |
MIN | 1987 | 7 | 123 | 211 | 58.3 | 1183 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 111 | 76.6 | 4.62 | Final 4 |
PHI | 2004 | 7 | 172 | 278 | 61.9 | 1575 | 7 | 7 | 25 | 115 | 76.9 | 4.62 | SB Loser |
ARI | 2015 | 7 | 155 | 253 | 61.3 | 1566 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 73 | 73.5 | 4.63 | Final 4 |
DEN | 1991 | 7 | 111 | 215 | 51.6 | 1428 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 112 | 63.3 | 4.63 | Final 4 |
DAL | 1993 | 7 | 139 | 226 | 61.5 | 1246 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 102 | 77.5 | 4.65 | SB Winner |
CIN | 1988 | 7 | 130 | 242 | 53.7 | 1460 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 157 | 70.2 | 4.66 | SB Loser |
BUF | 1992 | 7 | 136 | 225 | 60.4 | 1509 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 128 | 73.5 | 4.66 | SB Loser |
NWE | 1985 | 7 | 108 | 215 | 50.2 | 1369 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 144 | 66.7 | 4.68 | SB Loser |
DAL | 1992 | 7 | 116 | 218 | 53.2 | 1183 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 167 | 73.8 | 4.70 | SB Winner |
SFO | 1993 | 7 | 145 | 263 | 55.1 | 1404 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 103 | 73.8 | 4.71 | Final 4 |
STL | 2001 | 7 | 151 | 233 | 64.8 | 1410 | 10 | 9 | 22 | 127 | 81.8 | 4.73 | SB Loser |
MIA | 1992 | 7 | 152 | 264 | 57.6 | 1559 | 9 | 9 | 17 | 131 | 73.9 | 4.75 | Final 4 |
GNB | 2014 | 7 | 144 | 243 | 59.3 | 1504 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 88 | 74 | 4.76 | Final 4 |
PIT | 2010 | 7 | 181 | 266 | 68 | 1702 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 115 | 79.1 | 4.80 | SB Loser |
DAL | 1995 | 7 | 138 | 238 | 58 | 1485 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 127 | 75.1 | 4.82 | SB Winner |
BUF | 1991 | 7 | 133 | 232 | 57.3 | 1341 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 78 | 71.7 | 4.84 | SB Loser |
PHI | 2008 | 7 | 127 | 226 | 56.2 | 1385 | 9 | 8 | 23 | 145 | 75.6 | 4.84 | Final 4 |
SFO | 2012 | 7 | 124 | 218 | 56.9 | 1214 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 70 | 73.6 | 4.84 | SB Loser |
IND | 2003 | 7 | 137 | 212 | 64.6 | 1296 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 94 | 80.1 | 4.85 | Final 4 |
NYG | 2007 | 7 | 137 | 240 | 57.1 | 1442 | 11 | 8 | 27 | 164 | 78.9 | 4.88 | SB Winner |
BUF | 1990 | 7 | 113 | 207 | 54.6 | 1248 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 135 | 74.2 | 4.90 | SB Loser |
BUF | 1988 | 7 | 137 | 223 | 61.4 | 1517 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 157 | 76.3 | 4.91 | Final 4 |
ATL | 2012 | 7 | 140 | 225 | 62.2 | 1518 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 115 | 76 | 4.95 | Final 4 |
SFO | 1994 | 7 | 149 | 246 | 60.6 | 1475 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 112 | 78.1 | 4.96 | SB Winner |
RAI | 1990 | 7 | 114 | 194 | 58.8 | 1222 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 189 | 78.8 | 4.96 | Final 4 |
NWE | 2006 | 7 | 140 | 233 | 60.1 | 1531 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 125 | 73.2 | 4.98 | Final 4 |
SFO | 2013 | 7 | 137 | 245 | 55.9 | 1536 | 9 | 9 | 17 | 112 | 73.6 | 5.00 | Final 4 |
DEN | 1998 | 7 | 138 | 242 | 57 | 1482 | 9 | 7 | 27 | 204 | 79 | 5.01 | SB Winner |
NWE | 2013 | 7 | 140 | 253 | 55.3 | 1579 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 123 | 72.3 | 5.01 | Final 4 |
SDG | 1994 | 7 | 175 | 263 | 66.5 | 1558 | 8 | 6 | 23 | 148 | 85.2 | 5.06 | SB Loser |
NYG | 2000 | 7 | 153 | 262 | 58.4 | 1659 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 123 | 75.9 | 5.07 | SB Loser |
WAS | 1982 | 7 | 119 | 217 | 54.8 | 1382 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 185 | 76.7 | 5.13 | SB Winner |
NYG | 2011 | 7 | 143 | 237 | 60.3 | 1576 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 205 | 79.5 | 5.16 | SB Winner |
NWE | 2004 | 7 | 132 | 235 | 56.2 | 1502 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 125 | 73.8 | 5.17 | SB Winner |
SEA | 2005 | 7 | 125 | 221 | 56.6 | 1318 | 9 | 5 | 23 | 142 | 80.9 | 5.22 | SB Loser |
SFO | 1992 | 7 | 153 | 254 | 60.2 | 1712 | 11 | 11 | 21 | 126 | 78.8 | 5.23 | Final 4 |
SFO | 1989 | 7 | 132 | 244 | 54.1 | 1527 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 103 | 73.6 | 5.24 | SB Winner |
JAX | 1996 | 7 | 126 | 225 | 56 | 1385 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 101 | 78.1 | 5.29 | Final 4 |
SFO | 2011 | 7 | 162 | 277 | 58.5 | 1790 | 10 | 9 | 21 | 140 | 78.3 | 5.32 | Final 4 |
SDG | 2007 | 7 | 157 | 246 | 63.8 | 1690 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 101 | 80.5 | 5.32 | Final 4 |
TEN | 1999 | 7 | 147 | 261 | 56.3 | 1581 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 114 | 79 | 5.33 | SB Loser |
PIT | 1995 | 7 | 133 | 224 | 59.4 | 1490 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 116 | 79.6 | 5.33 | SB Loser |
PIT | 1997 | 7 | 149 | 266 | 56 | 1745 | 12 | 10 | 20 | 116 | 77.3 | 5.37 | Final 4 |
KAN | 1993 | 7 | 141 | 240 | 58.8 | 1464 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 107 | 79.4 | 5.39 | Final 4 |
SFO | 1990 | 7 | 134 | 253 | 53 | 1615 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 111 | 76 | 5.44 | Final 4 |
NWE | 2015 | 7 | 172 | 273 | 63 | 1769 | 11 | 8 | 26 | 184 | 85.6 | 5.45 | Final 4 |
NOR | 2006 | 7 | 134 | 228 | 58.8 | 1293 | 12 | 4 | 19 | 116 | 87 | 5.48 | Final 4 |
NWE | 2014 | 7 | 140 | 229 | 61.1 | 1456 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 120 | 85 | 5.51 | SB Winner |
OAK | 2000 | 7 | 157 | 266 | 59 | 1648 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 58 | 80.5 | 5.52 | Final 4 |
IND | 2014 | 7 | 130 | 231 | 56.3 | 1501 | 8 | 6 | 21 | 122 | 79 | 5.52 | Final 4 |
PHI | 2003 | 7 | 167 | 270 | 61.9 | 1614 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 69 | 83 | 5.56 | Final 4 |
CLE | 1986 | 7 | 127 | 203 | 62.6 | 1287 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 92 | 85 | 5.57 | Final 4 |
CAR | 2005 | 7 | 145 | 254 | 57.1 | 1628 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 97 | 79.6 | 5.62 | Final 4 |
OAK | 2002 | 7 | 153 | 241 | 63.5 | 1645 | 14 | 10 | 18 | 90 | 87.1 | 5.69 | SB Loser |
MIN | 2000 | 7 | 158 | 268 | 59 | 1587 | 8 | 3 | 15 | 106 | 82.8 | 5.70 | Final 4 |
IND | 2006 | 7 | 125 | 190 | 65.8 | 1173 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 70 | 90.7 | 5.71 | SB Winner |
NYJ | 2010 | 7 | 121 | 248 | 48.8 | 1530 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 100 | 75.2 | 5.72 | Final 4 |
DEN | 2005 | 7 | 159 | 278 | 57.2 | 1684 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 62 | 79.2 | 5.73 | Final 4 |
SEA | 1983 | 7 | 139 | 230 | 60.4 | 1741 | 17 | 14 | 21 | 163 | 86.2 | 5.78 | Final 4 |
GNB | 2007 | 7 | 140 | 244 | 57.4 | 1586 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 101 | 82.1 | 5.79 | Final 4 |
DET | 1991 | 7 | 129 | 208 | 62 | 1339 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 64 | 84.7 | 5.87 | Final 4 |
NWE | 1996 | 7 | 149 | 253 | 58.9 | 1792 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 97 | 79.3 | 5.89 | SB Loser |
ATL | 2004 | 7 | 158 | 230 | 68.7 | 1606 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 153 | 89.4 | 5.92 | Final 4 |
NWE | 2001 | 7 | 131 | 215 | 60.9 | 1482 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 87 | 82.5 | 5.93 | SB Winner |
MIN | 2009 | 7 | 149 | 234 | 63.7 | 1642 | 10 | 6 | 25 | 151 | 90.6 | 6.07 | Final 4 |
BAL | 2012 | 7 | 157 | 252 | 62.3 | 1800 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 88 | 81.6 | 6.08 | SB Winner |
CAR | 2003 | 7 | 144 | 235 | 61.3 | 1602 | 9 | 5 | 17 | 84 | 86.9 | 6.18 | SB Loser |
MIA | 1985 | 7 | 116 | 218 | 53.2 | 1585 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 103 | 77.5 | 6.22 | Final 4 |
IND | 1995 | 7 | 154 | 251 | 61.4 | 1677 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 56 | 87.3 | 6.38 | Final 4 |
WAS | 1983 | 7 | 133 | 238 | 55.9 | 1938 | 15 | 11 | 25 | 198 | 87.8 | 6.63 | SB Loser |
STL | 1985 | 7 | 115 | 203 | 56.7 | 1330 | 17 | 5 | 10 | 62 | 95.5 | 6.78 | Final 4 |
ATL | 1998 | 7 | 145 | 244 | 59.4 | 1753 | 13 | 5 | 17 | 110 | 92.6 | 6.85 | SB Loser |
DEN | 2013 | 7 | 173 | 289 | 59.9 | 2239 | 14 | 9 | 19 | 135 | 89.4 | 6.86 | SB Loser |
RAM | 1989 | 7 | 157 | 246 | 63.8 | 1874 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 83 | 91.5 | 6.87 | Final 4 |
NWE | 2011 | 7 | 190 | 285 | 66.7 | 2262 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 93 | 92.9 | 6.99 | SB Loser |
SEA | 2014 | 7 | 154 | 230 | 67 | 1586 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 67 | 99.8 | 7.05 | SB Loser |
PIT | 2016 | 7 | 182 | 274 | 66.4 | 1984 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 93.2 | 7.12 | ??????? |
TEN | 2002 | 7 | 143 | 223 | 64.1 | 1643 | 17 | 5 | 16 | 86 | 103.9 | 7.36 | Final 4 |
NWE | 2012 | 7 | 169 | 260 | 65 | 2030 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 72 | 99.2 | 7.40 | Final 4 |
ARI | 2008 | 7 | 140 | 208 | 67.3 | 1560 | 14 | 3 | 19 | 114 | 108.1 | 7.51 | SB Loser |