I have now compiled the TOX stats through Week 11 of the 2014 NFL season and this week we had the plus two or better teams go a combined 6-3 (66.7%).
Year to date, teams with a plus two or better TOX stat are now 98-17 (85.2%). Keep in mind that the expected number should be 80% or better so despite the beating that the plus two number took in Week 11, the year to date winning percentage of the plus two or better teams is still way above the expected number.
As for the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11, they were a minus three against the Tennessee Titans and managed to buck the plus two number by winning. They gave up another four explosive plays Monday night in addition to having one play go explosive thanks to a penalty. For the season, the Steelers defense has allowed 47 explosive plays and five more have gone explosive thanks to penalties. Also for the season, the Steelers are a minus seven when it comes to total TOX differential. They currently have lowest differential of all teams in the league with a winning record.
I’d like to remind you that we are tracking penalty plays this season that result in a gain of 20 or more yards as well. If you need a refresher on the TOX stat, it’s a differential of combined explosive plays and turnovers in a single game. Teams with a plus two TOX stat in any given game are expected to win 80% of the time.
| WEEK 11 | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | TOX | W/L | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | DIFF 20+ | INT | FUM | INT | FUM | TO DIFF | TOX | W/L |
| CIN | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| GNB | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| TB | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| CLE | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 4 | L |
| TEN | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | L |
| MIA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | W |
| SF | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| STL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| SEA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| ARI | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 1 | W |
| IND | 7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | L |
| OAK | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | L |
| ATL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| CHI | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | W |
| CAR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| MIN | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | L |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | B |
| DAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | B |
| JAX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | B |
| NYJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | B |
| NE | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | W |
| SD | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | W |
| DET | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | L |
| KC | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -2 | W |
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | L |
| DEN | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -2 | L |
| NYG | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | -2 | L |
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | W |
| HOU | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | -5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -4 | W |
| WAS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -5 | L |
| PHI | 6 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -4 | -6 | L |
| NO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -7 | L |
| YTD | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | TOX | W/L | ||||||
| TEAM | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | DIFF 20+ | INT | FUM | INT | FUM | TO DIFF | TOX | W/L |
| DEN | 45 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 7-3 |
| SF | 35 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 6-4 |
| GNB | 37 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 7-3 |
| IND | 55 | 4 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 6-4 |
| ARI | 37 | 4 | 4 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 9-1 |
| SEA | 28 | 10 | 4 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 6-4 |
| CLE | 42 | 6 | 1 | 34 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 6-4 |
| BUF | 32 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 5-5 |
| NE | 33 | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 8-2 |
| DAL | 30 | 13 | 3 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 7 | -1 | 8 | 7-3 |
| DET | 32 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 7-3 |
| MIA | 23 | 9 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 6-4 |
| ATL | 38 | 5 | 2 | 34 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 4-6 |
| BAL | 29 | 11 | 7 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 6-4 |
| SD | 36 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 6-4 |
| HOU | 31 | 9 | 0 | 32 | 7 | 3 | -2 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 5-5 |
| KC | 21 | 10 | 5 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 7-3 |
| MIN | 23 | 9 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4-6 |
| CIN | 27 | 7 | 0 | 29 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 6-3-1 |
| PHI | 45 | 7 | 4 | 40 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 9 | -9 | -2 | 7-3 |
| TB | 37 | 5 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 7 | -5 | -2 | 2-8 |
| TEN | 25 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 3 | -2 | -4 | 2-8 |
| PIT | 35 | 7 | 5 | 40 | 7 | 5 | -5 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 6 | -2 | -7 | 7-4 |
| CHI | 29 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 4 | 3 | -7 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 5 | -6 | -13 | 4-6 |
| NO | 29 | 7 | 5 | 36 | 6 | 3 | -4 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 4 | -9 | -13 | 4-6 |
| WAS | 38 | 3 | 2 | 36 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -11 | -13 | 3-7 |
| CAR | 36 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 8 | 9 | -14 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 0 | -14 | 3-7-1 |
| STL | 24 | 5 | 1 | 27 | 11 | 6 | -14 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 7 | -3 | -17 | 4-6 |
| NYG | 30 | 1 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1 | -14 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 4 | -4 | -18 | 3-7 |
| NYJ | 20 | 5 | 2 | 29 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 4 | -11 | -21 | 2-8 |
| JAX | 31 | 7 | 1 | 40 | 11 | 0 | -12 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 6 | -11 | -23 | 1-9 |
| OAK | 19 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 5 | 3 | -17 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 3 | -12 | -29 | 0-10 |
