With mock draft season now back in high gear, I thought it would be fun on this lazy Sunday to take a look back at how the major media draftniks did with their first real mock drafts last offseason.
For this exercise, I pulled the mock drafts of Mel Kiper Jr., Todd McShay, Daniel Jeremiah, Dane Brugler and Rob Rang as they seem to be the ones that most everybody tends to point to during the offseason. You can see their dated mocks below along with the actual first round results of the 2013 NFL Draft.
As you can see, Kiper, Brugler and Rang all had 20 players that ultimately went in the first round while Jeremiah had 19. McShay had the least correct with 18, but in his defense, his first “real” mock came out in the middle of December. That explains a few of his choices being underclassmen that wound up not even declaring. He still hit 18 first rounders, however, and even slotted two players correctly, albeit to the wrong teams.
What’s interesting is that all five of these major media draftniks didn’t have D.J. Hayden, E.J. Manuel, Justin Pugh, Kyle Long, Desmond Trufant, Datone Jones or Travis Frederick in their mocks. In addition, all five also missed with Manti Te’o, Damontre Moore and Johnathan Hankins.
| ACTUAL | KIPER 1/16/13 | McShay 12/12/12 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | PLAYER | TM | # | PLAYER | TM | # | PLAYER | TM |
| 1 | E.Fisher | KC | 1 | L.Joeckel | KC | 1 | S.Lotulelei | KC |
| 2 | L.Joeckel | JAC | 2 | D.Moore | JAC | 2 | D.Moore | JAC |
| 3 | D.Jordan | MIA | 3 | S.Lotulelei | OAK | 3 | B.Werner | OAK |
| 4 | L.Johnson | PHI | 4 | D.Milliner | PHI | 4 | L.Joeckel | PHI |
| 5 | E.Ansah | DET | 5 | J.Jones | DET | 5 | J.Hankins | CAR |
| 6 | B.Mingo | CLE | 6 | B.Werner | CLE | 6 | B.Mingo | TEN |
| 7 | J.Cooper | ARI | 7 | C.Warmack | ARI | 7 | D.Milliner | DET |
| 8 | T.Austin | STL | 8 | M.Te’o | BUF | 8 | G.Smith | ARI |
| 9 | D.Milliner | NYJ | 9 | B.Mingo | NYJ | 9 | T.Lewan | SD |
| 10 | C.Warmack | TEN | 10 | D.Jordan | TEN | 10 | C.Warmack | CLE |
| 11 | D.Fluker | SD | 11 | E.Fisher | SD | 11 | M.Te’o | BUF |
| 12 | D.Hayden | OAK | 12 | C.Patterson | MIA | 12 | D.Jordan | MIA |
| 13 | S.Richardson | NYJ | 13 | A.Ogletree | TB | 13 | J.Jones | NO |
| 14 | S.Lotulelei | CAR | 14 | S.Richardson | CAR | 14 | S.Montgomery | TB |
| 15 | K.Vaccaro | NO | 15 | J.Hankins | NO | 15 | J.Matthews | NYJ |
| 16 | E.Manuel | BUF | 16 | K.Vaccaro | STL | 16 | E.Fisher | STL |
| 17 | J.Jones | PIT | 17 | E.Ansah | PIT | 17 | A.Ogletree | CIN |
| 18 | E.Reid | SF | 18 | J.Cooper | DAL | 18 | S.Williams | MIN |
| 19 | J.Pugh | NYG | 19 | S.Montgomery | NYG | 19 | K.Vaccaro | DAL |
| 20 | K.Long | CHI | 20 | T.Eifert | CHI | 20 | K.Allen | STL |
| 21 | T.Eifert | CIN | 21 | M.Ball | CIN | 21 | J.Jenkins | PIT |
| 22 | D.Trufant | ATL | 22 | D.Fluker | STL | 22 | J.Hunter | SEA |
| 23 | S.Floyd | MIN | 23 | T.Williams | MIN | 23 | S.Richardson | CHI |
| 24 | B.Werner | IND | 24 | M.Watson | IND | 24 | E.Ansah | IND |
| 25 | X.Rhodes | MIN | 25 | J.Jenkins | SEA | 25 | J.Banks | NYG |
| 26 | D.Jones | GB | 26 | Z.Ertz | GB | 26 | C.Lemonier | BAL |
| 27 | D.Hopkins | HOU | 27 | K.Allen | HOU | 27 | J.Cooper | GB |
| 28 | S.Williams | DEN | 28 | X.Rhodes | DEN | 28 | K.Short | DEN |
| 29 | C.Patterson | MIN | 29 | K.Minter | BAL | 29 | S.Floyd | SF |
| 30 | A.Ogletree | STL | 30 | S.Floyd SF | 30 | T.Austin | NE | |
| 31 | T.Frederick | DAL | 31 | D.Hopkins | NE | 31 | Z.Ertz | ATL |
| 32 | M.Elam | BAL | 32 | M.Hunt | ATL | 32 | T.Eifert | HOU |
| Jeremiah 1/14/13 | Brugler 1/21/13 | Rang 1/21/13 | ||||||
| # | PLAYER | TM | # | PLAYER | TM | # | PLAYER | TM |
| 1 | L.Joeckel | KC | 1 | G.Smith | KC | 1 | L.Joeckel | KC |
| 2 | J.Jones | JAC | 2 | B.Werner | JAC | 2 | S.Lotulelei | JAC |
| 3 | S.Lotulelei | OAK | 3 | B.Mingo | OAK | 3 | J.Jones | OAK |
| 4 | D.Milliner | PHI | 4 | L.Joeckel | PHI | 4 | G.Smith | PHI |
| 5 | D.Moore | DET | 5 | D.Moore | DET | 5 | B.Werner | DET |
| 6 | D.Jordan | CLE | 6 | D.Milliner | CLE | 6 | D.Moore | CLE |
| 7 | G.Smith | ARI | 7 | T.Wilson | ARI | 7 | M.Barkley | ARI |
| 8 | C.Patterson | BUF | 8 | M.Glennon | BUF | 8 | T.Wilson | BUF |
| 9 | B.Werner | NYJ | 9 | J.Jones | NYJ | 9 | B.Mingo | NYJ |
| 10 | C.Warmack | TEN | 10 | C.Warmack | TEN | 10 | S.Richardson | TEN |
| 11 | E.Fisher | SD | 11 | E.Fisher | SD | 11 | E.Fisher | SD |
| 12 | B.Mingo | MIA | 12 | C.Patterson | MIA | 12 | K.Allen | MIA |
| 13 | Z.Ertz | TB | 13 | X.Rhodes | TB | 13 | D.Milliner | TB |
| 14 | K.Allen | CAR | 14 | S.Lotulelei | CAR | 14 | J.Hankins | CAR |
| 15 | S.Richardson | NO | 15 | D.Jordan | NO | 15 | E.Ansah | NO |
| 16 | L.Johnson | STL | 16 | L.Johnson | STL | 16 | C.Warmack | STL |
| 17 | J.Banks | PIT | 17 | K.Allen | PIT | 17 | J.Williams | PIT |
| 18 | J.Cooper | DAL | 18 | S.Floyd | DAL | 18 | J.Jenkins | DAL |
| 19 | A.Ogletree | NYG | 19 | E.Ansah | NYG | 19 | T.Eifert | NYG |
| 20 | M.Te’o | CHI | 20 | M.Te’o | CHI | 20 | L.Johnson | CHI |
| 21 | S.Montgomery | CIN | 21 | S.Montgomery | CIN | 21 | A.Ogletree | CIN |
| 22 | K.Vaccaro | STL | 22 | E.Reid | STL | 22 | Z.Ertz | STL |
| 23 | J.Hunter | MIN | 23 | D.Hopkins | MIN | 23 | C.Patterson | MIN |
| 24 | S.Floyd | IND | 24 | J.Hankins | IND | 24 | X.Rhodes | IND |
| 25 | J.Hankins | SEA | 25 | S.Richardson | SEA | 25 | R.Woods | SEA |
| 26 | E.Lacy | GB | 26 | A.Ogletree | GB | 26 | D.Fluker | GB |
| 27 | K.Minter | HOU | 27 | K.Minter | HOU | 27 | T.Austin | HOU |
| 28 | E.Ansah | DEN | 28 | T.Eifert | DEN | 28 | S.Floyd | DEN |
| 29 | C.Carradine | NE | 29 | T.Austin | NE | 29 | M.Elam | NE |
| 30 | T.Eifert | ATL | 30 | Z.Ertz | ATL | 30 | D.Jordan | ATL |
| 31 | J.Williams | SF | 31 | M.Elam | BAL | 31 | M.Te’o | BAL |
| 32 | T.Austin | BAL | 32 | J.Williams | SF | 32 | B.Jones | SF |
