Welcome back to your weekly Pittsburgh Steelers mailbag. As always, we’re here for the next hour to answer whatever is on your mind.
To your questions!
Brian Tollini: Any rumors of the Steelers trading for another playmaker seems to contradict their offseason efforts of accumulating draft capital for the ’26 draft. Not saying they couldn’t send a late round pick for a Jonnu Smith-type (or *ahem, Alec Pierce) but the idea of acquiring a bigger name via trade has never made sense to me based on their offseason strategy. Gabe Davis on paper fits best to me outside of a trade involving a late rounder, would you agree?
Alex: A bigger name, maybe not. But trading a Day Three selection, especially a late one, isn’t going to impact plans to trade up for a quarterback early in next year’s draft. If it’s a fifth or sixth round selection, which is what the compensation likely would be in any deal for the players we’re talking about, it’s not changing the team’s plans or hampering them. There’s always that balance between winning now and setting your team up for the future.
Ross Hughes: Saw a report that Gabe Davis left without signing today. Wonder if it was a team decision or his. Do you think we’re going to be stuck in this WR holding pattern until Rodgers makes his decision?
Alex: Could be both. Davis took visits to the Giants and 49ers and left without deals there last month. Probably evaluating his knee and making sure he’s healthy. He has some time to wait and figure things out. It’s not about money. Jags on the hook for his contract. Whoever signs Davis will pay him the minimum. It’s about his health and fit.
If the right situation comes along, Pittsburgh could make an addition before Rodgers (whenever that is). But Steelers also want to watch their own guys throughout the spring and go from there. So I don’t think they’re in a huge rush to go add someone regardless of Rodgers’ status.
Ted Webb: Honest question, 53 guys make the roster, the roster size is 90 going into camp how many spots are legitimately up for grabs in your opinion? We know basically all the starters and 2nd teamers and on defense the nickel amd dime backs probably. I. Thinking 44-47 jobs all ready taken barring injury. That leaves like. Less than 10 jobs actually up for grabs maybe? Am I thinking correctly or maybe I’m short changing the roster or something just wondering what you think
Alex: Each year, I give roster odds to each player. I’ll do that later this offseason. It might be more open this season with a large amount of roster turnover and over 8,100 snaps to replace. But your number seems solid. There’s probably 5-ish spots truly open. If we just run through “locks” and “near-locks” you have:
QB: Rudolph, some other QB (Thompson/Howard), and we’ll assume Rodgers signs
RB: Warren, Johnson, Gainwell
WR: Metcalf, Austin, Roman Wilson
TE: Freiermuth, Washington
OL: Starting five + McCollum
DL: Heyward, Benton, Harmon
EDGE: Watt, Highsmith, Herbig, Sawyer
ILB: Queen, Wilson, Harrison
CB: Porter, Slay, Bishop, Echols
S: Fitzpatrick, Elliott, Thornhill, Killebrew
STs: Boswell, punter (Johnston/Waitman), Kuntz
That’s 38 there and I was pretty conservative with who I added. A little more work and you’re adding another 6-8 names which leaves just a handful of spots vacant.
tcirish53@gmail.com: Alex, longtime reader first time questioner….
BEFORE Parham’s unfortunate injury, and even knowing Art Smith’s scheme uses a TON of TEs, why do you believe the team was so heavily pursuing a TE, (namely Jonnu Smith from MIA) instead of aggressively pursuing a WR2?
Perhaps because Wilson has reportedly looked so good in shorts? Because like pitchers in baseball you can never have enough TEs in Smith’s scheme?
Thanks!
Alex: Thanks for the question! And thanks for the wait while I cleared the first wave of Rodgers’ news. Mainly for what you said. Arthur Smith likes multiple tight ends. That’s core to his offense. But we also know the Smith reports are a lot of agent-driven hype as Drew Rosenhaus is looking for a new deal. That was driving that train.
Banastre Tarleton: Alex,
Has The Depot ever done an in depth look at the success rate of drafting QBs? Of course, the first thing would be to define “success.” Maybe starting in the league at least 8+ years?
Do QBs do better sitting 1-2 years (Love, Mahomes) or getting thrown to the wolves (P. Manning, Burrow, Ben)?
Does being drafted by a team with a good record the previous season (possibly signifying an already good team) lead to long-term success more than a team building around a QB?
Does a “QB Whisperer” HC matter or just a competent OC?
I have a lot of intuitive thoughts, but not sure the data would always back it up. Do so many even top 10 picks fail because scouting is so imperfect or are the scouts usually correct and the rest of the team is a hot mess? What is the failure rate of top 10, or first round QBs, compared to 2nd, 3rd, or pick 199 (Brady)?
Do you have thoughts as to the seemingly high failure rate of even high draft picks?
(Note: I don’t expect you to answer these questions here but am just wondering if you’ve already done such work or would consider doing it ahead of the 2026 draft.)
Alex: I don’t think we have. I really think there is no “answer.” No true correlation. Teams study it every which way and there is no perfect path to success. Draft picks in general succeed or fail for a lot of different reasons. Quarterbacks get the spotlight but it applies everywhere. Injury, poor evaluation, poor scheme fit, coaching changes, bad coaching/player fits, off-field stuff, etc.
But no, we’ve never done something in-depth like that. I’m not even sure where I would begin with how many variables there are that would prove difficult to isolate.
Sdale: I know we’ve got our outside zone RB now, but which of the OL are a scheme fit and which do you think will struggle most with it? It seems like our FA acquisitions the last 3-4 years (although Seamalu seems like the only holdover) didn’t fit that mold, and I’m wondering about the young draftees as well.
Alex: I think the line can do it. They’re all athletic. So they all “fit.” How well they play individually is still another matter. I don’t see a starter who can’t run the scheme.
