Earlier in the offseason, the Pittsburgh Steelers offense looked scarier on paper than it had in quite some time. They signed WR DK Metcalf to a record-breaking contract in the Steel City, with George Pickens still on the roster. But the team decided to deal Pickens, with the compensation coming in future years and the current WR room looking much more like 2024.
I want to provide some stats on the top free agent wide receivers currently, examining what that could look like for the Steelers if they decided to dive into those waters.
The study will include the top three free agent wide receivers (prior average yearly value). Those names are Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen and Gabe Davis. Also, 2024/current Steelers and the rest of the NFL will be included for context (min. 40 targets).
Speaking of which, here is average depth of target (ADOT) and yards after catch per reception (YAC) from the 2024 regular season:
Not an awe-inspiring picture for the players we’re focused on in this study, particularly seeing none of the group above the mean in yards after catch (YAC). Returning Steelers receiver Calvin Austin lands just below that mark, with 4.3 YAC, tying for 41st out of 104 qualifiers. Metcalf comes in at 4.0 YAC, tied with the recently departed Pickens at 52nd, while Van Jefferson (now with Tennessee) bottomed Pittsburgh’s numbers last season (3.3, T-76th).
The free agent group offered little in YAC as well: Allen (3.4, T-73rd), Cooper (2.7, T-91st), Davis (2.2, T-99th). Remember, there are 104 qualifying WRs, and only three players had a worse number than Davis. YAC is an important element to offensive success and clearly lacked in 2024 from the free agents and in Pittsburgh.
Where things look better is average depth of target (ADOT). Both current Steelers were above average, particularly Metcalf (14.3). This ironically tied for 12th with Davis, which matches their reputation of being field stretchers. This was an exciting possibility with Metcalf and Pickens (13.9, T-17th) pre-trade.
If Pittsburgh wants similar potential on the field, Davis would be the name I’d advocate for. Cooper (13.0, 25th) landed more similarly to Austin (12.7, T-28th), also solid numbers. The rest of the group was below the mean: Jefferson (11.1, 64th), Allen (10.1, 72nd).
This really adds context to the free agent WRs usage in 2024, and potentially what things could potentially look like if they were to wear the Black and Gold. Of course, questions still remain at the quarterback position, which plays a huge factor.
I also wanted to look at catching stats. Some numbers jumped out as revealing – contested catches and drop rates:
Right away, we see Metcalf was the only player above the mean in each stat: particularly 15 contested catches (T-12th) and a 4.3 drop rate (32nd). The former came on 41 contested targets, which led the NFL in the 2024 regular season. Considering this, Metcalf’s drop rate on all targets is even more impressive.
Otherwise, it was largely one or the other for the rest. On the bottom right, three players had above average contested catches but below average drop rates. Allen – 13 contested catches (T-17th), 10.3 drop rate (84th). Cooper – 11 contested catches (T-26th), 15.4 drop rate (T-104th, third-worst). Pickens – 10 contested catches (T-31st), 13.2 drop rate (95th). Metcalf’s value in this regard becomes even clearer.
On the other end of the spectrum (below the mean contested catches), Austin was the only focus player with an above average drop rate (5.3, T-41st). The final two were below that line, starting with Jefferson (7.7, 64th). Clearly wasn’t a needle mover for Pittsburgh in 2024. Even lower was Davis, with just two contested catches (T-90th) and a 9.1 drop rate (73rd).
This is an example of what I discovered when scouring several stats, finding some sprinkles of encouraging data, but largely underwhelming 2024 resumes for the top free agents at wide receiver. Adds to the feeling many had on the Pickens trade, particularly doing so after the draft, and limiting 2025 options for Pittsburgh.
Seemingly, the Steelers’ desire to trade Pickens was mainly for off the field and character reasons. The three free agent possibilities appear to fit with the Steelers in that regard. But a lack of overall impact on the field for the group makes sense considering their services are still available. It re-emphasizes the less-than-ideal timing of Pittsburgh moving on from Pickens.
It’s a multi-faceted topic, with benefits coming in the future. But unfortunately, not much optimism for things looking much different for Pittsburgh’s receiver room in 2025 despite new faces. If the Steelers were to sign one of the three free agent options we looked at, I’d hope for Davis.
He did see a dip in production in 2024 with a new Jaguars squad. But he’s still young and had strong recent seasons in Buffalo that Pittsburgh is familiar with (allowing a 97-yard TD). Hopefully Davis could rekindle some of that success as opposed to a down and injury-shortened 2024 campaign. He could fill the majority of vacated snaps on the outside.
If that occurred, it would also align nicely with the rest of the WR room in my opinion. On paper, the group could have more success in the slot. We saw that from Austin last year. The Steelers also have Roman Wilson, who the team is still high on despite playing just five snaps as a rookie.
Robert Woods was also added by Pittsburgh. He has experience in the slot, too, but he’s a 13-year vet who hasn’t been very productive for several years now. So, the Steelers wide receiver room went from perhaps one of the best deep-ball duos to maybe one of the weakest groups in the NFL. What now?
