Throughout last offseason leading up to the start of the 2024 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers were on the hunt for a true No. 1 wide receiver and were connected to names like San Francisco’s Brandon Aiyuk and Denver’s Courtland Sutton. Unfortunately, the Steelers and GM Omar Khan were unable to land either one, leading to a rather difficult season in the passing game as the Steelers had no real option to take pressure off George Pickens at the receiver position.
This offseason, Khan and the Steelers didn’t miss, swinging big and landing star receiver DK Metcalf in a trade, then handing out a five-year, $150 million deal to the 27-year-old receiver. It gave Pittsburgh a dynamic duo at the position.
Although there was some trade chatter regarding Pickens leading up to — and during — the 2025 NFL Draft, the Steelers ultimately held onto Pickens and now are set to enter the season with a dynamic duo in Metcalf and Pickens. The only problem? They still need a starting quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers will hopefully make a decision soon, which would give the Steelers a boost at the position for the 2025 season. With two big-play receivers, will the Steelers’ passing game take a step forward under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith?
ESPN’s Mike Clay, in his projections for the Steelers’ offense for the upcoming season, seems to think so, projecting the Steelers to throw for 4,002 yards. Within those projections, he has two big seasons for Metcalf and Pickens outlined.
So, will they go over or under the projection from Clay? Glad you asked.
DK METCALF — 2025 PROJECTION FROM ESPN: 73 RECEPTIONS, 1,023 YARDS, 6 TDs
With Metcalf coming off a 66-catch season in Seattle in which he produced 992 yards and five touchdowns, a slight increase on those numbers in Year One in Pittsburgh isn’t all that much of a stretch. But considering the Steelers paid him big money, and like to push the ball down the field in Smith’s offensive attack, he should average more than 14 yards per reception. It’s a number he’s eclipsed four of his six seasons in the NFL.
Within Clay’s projections, Metcalf sees 121 targets, a number he hasn’t reached since 2022, though he did see 119 targets in 2023 in Seattle. Pittsburgh is a run-first offense, but there’s going to be plenty of work within the passing game for Metcalf to prove his worth to the Steel City.
Looking back at the 2019 season in Tennessee when Smith had a big, physical threat at receiver, A.J. Brown went off for 52 receptions for 1,051 yards and eight touchdowns. I see a similar number of scores for Metcalf, while averaging north of 16 yards per reception. I also think he should hit 70 catches, though the sweet spot between 70 and 75 for him feels right.
All that said, anything short of 70 receptions, 1,000 yards and six touchdowns would be a bit of a disappointment for Year One of Metcalf in Pittsburgh, especially with the salary he’s carrying. He’s a great talent, and with Pickens drawing attention opposite him, along with TE Pat Freiermuth in the middle of the field and presumably Aaron Rodgers at QB, Metcalf could be in for a big year.
Verdict: Slightly Over
GEORGE PICKENS — 2025 PROJECTION FROM ESPN: 69 RECEPTIONS, 989 YARDS, 6 TDs
As the No. 1 receiver for the Steelers last year, Pickens had a big 2024 season, finishing with 59 receptions for 900 yards and 3 touchdowns. He was a big play waiting to happen every time on the field. Those final season numbers would have been even better, too, if he hadn’t missed three games with a hamstring injury in December.
The fact that he put up those numbers while being the only viable downfield threat at receiver – with defenses knowing exactly what the Steelers wanted to do — was rather impressive. Though he didn’t reach the numbers he put up in 2023 when he led the NFL in yards per reception, Pickens took significant steps toward becoming a complete receiver. He can win quickly off the line, create in big ways after the catch and remain a contested-catch monster.
Having Metcalf opposite him in 2025 should open things up even further for Pickens. Within Clay’s projections, Pickens is projected to see 116 targets, which would be a career-best. That seems like a significant stretch, unless Clay is projecting the Steelers to be trailing a lot and needing to throw the football.
If that’s the case, the targets and the overall numbers could be big for both Metcalf and Pickens. But that’s hard to envision right now for the Steelers. They have a style of play, and they stick to it. More often than not in the regular season, it works.
Knowing that, and knowing the investment made at the running back position this offseason, along with a growing young offensive line, it’s hard to see the Steelers all of a sudden becoming pass-first, even if Rodgers signs. Therefore, it’s hard to see Pickens have 116 targets and average more than 14 yards per reception on nearly 70 catches.
Instead, I see something similar to what he did last season, just with a higher yards per catch. Something around 55 receptions for 950 yards and five touchdowns. That would put him around 17 yards per catch and would make him a rather good No. 2 weapon for the Steelers.
Verdict: Slightly Under
