The Pittsburgh Steelers have a lot of uncertainty heading into the 2025 season, especially with Aaron Rodgers, the team’s preferred quarterback option, still unsigned. ESPN’s Seth Walder put together an article looking at each team’s odds to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl based off ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), which came out today for the 2025 season. Pittsburgh isn’t projected to make the playoffs, with a 38% chance of reaching the postseason, which ranks eighth in the AFC.
With seven teams in each conference making the playoffs, the Steelers are projected to just miss the cut. The 38% chance is the same as the Miami Dolphins, and just ahead of the Indianapolis Colts with a 37% chance. Two AFC North teams have at least a 60% chance of making the playoffs, with the Baltimore Ravens coming in at 79% and the Cincinnati Bengals at 60%.
With the Steelers not favored to make the playoffs, their odds to win the Super Bowl are much lower, at just 1.6%. That puts them right in the middle of the pack, as it’s the 17th-best odds in the NFL and below teams like the Chicago Bears (1.8%) while coming just ahead of the Dallas Cowboys at 1.4%.
It’s unknown if the FPI factors in Rodgers signing with the Steelers, and it’ll be interesting to see if the odds change if the four-time NFL MVP does ultimately sign with them. But right now, the analytics aren’t expecting the Steelers to be much of a factor when it comes to the postseason. While Pittsburgh has made the postseason each of the past two seasons, it has been bounced in the Wild Card Round and hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016.
While the Steelers once again boast a talented defense that should be among the league’s best, questions linger about their offense with the quarterback situation still murky and not a lot of depth along the offensive line. Given that the Ravens and Bengals are both expected to be playoff teams and Pittsburgh playing four games total against them, it makes sense that its odds would be low to make the postseason right now. In fact, six of Pittsburgh’s opponents have a 50% or better chance to make the postseason, with the Green Bay Packers (51%), Los Angeles Chargers (57%), Detroit Lions (67%) and Buffalo Bills (81%) joining the Ravens and the Bengals.
The Steelers found a way to be competitive and sneak into the playoffs even with a difficult schedule last season, so while the odds aren’t great right now, it doesn’t mean the Steelers won’t be able to make a run and surprise some people. But where they stand right now makes a lot of sense, and it’s hard to argue that their odds should be much higher.
