The idea of trading back in the first round of the NFL draft always seems to enter the conversation this time of year. It can be a viable strategy to extract extra value out of the draft, especially if positions of need are running thin by the time a team makes its selection. For the Pittsburgh Steelers, it makes all the sense in the world because of their lack of a second-round pick due to the trade to acquire DK Metcalf from the Seattle Seahawks. But trading down is much easier said than done.
This year has been labeled a “starters draft” with very few blue-chip prospects and a wealth of Day 2-caliber players that will span well into Day 3. It’s the antithesis to last year’s draft in a lot of ways. Buccaneers GM Jason Licht thinks, for this reason, that the opportunities to trade back will be sparse relative to other years.
“You can’t walk into it and say, ‘I’m definitely looking to trade back’ because you don’t know what’s going to fall to you,” Licht said in a clip via Tampa Free Press’s Rock Riley on X. “I could be wrong, you’re gonna see maybe a little less people wanting to move up and offering enough to make it worth your while. Just because the draft is pretty leveled out at a certain point.
“You might be able to get the same player in the second round, the same level of player, as you can in the fourth round at certain positions. So I think you’ll maybe see a little bit less of that.”
Let’s unpack some of what Licht is saying and how that applies to the Steelers because I think it can be looked at in a number of different ways.
First, I think this makes the DK Metcalf trade feel way better and perhaps adds some context to why the Steelers were comfortable doing it. If you can get similar quality players in the fourth round as you can in the second, then that obviously makes second-round picks less valuable.
It’s not like the Steelers had an early second-round pick. They would have been selecting No. 52 overall. By then, you are well into the amorphous blob of similar talent that will last well into Day 3.
From another perspective, this could aid the Steelers if they really want to trade back into the second round. If teams are less attached to those picks, then they might be willing to take a lesser return than trading into the second round would typically take.
Draft pick trade value charts can be helpful, but they don’t adjust to the makeup of a specific draft class. Licht makes it seem like some of the second- and third-round value is leveled out into the fourth and maybe even early fifth round.
What this means for the Steelers in the first round is also debatable. Less trades might happen overall if you look at the entire three-day event, but perhaps there will be more trades taking place on Day 1 to maximize the true first-round talents. I could see a scenario where the makeup of this class actually assists the Steelers in trading back if they really want to.
But should they want to if the talent levels out so early on teams’ draft boards?
For what it’s worth, this draft is already in historic territory. There haven’t been any trades in the first round of the draft as of yet. Normally there have already been at least a couple made by teams to move up in the first round.
What do you think? Will the Steelers move up, down or stay put? I could see a valid argument for any of the three options.
