Earlier in the offseason, I took a stats-based deep dive into the NFL quarterbacks who the Pittsburgh Steelers could potentially be targeting as their starting quarterback in 2025. As we get closer to the NFL draft at the end of the month, the majority of those options are off the table. The likely answer for a veteran quarterback is Aaron Rodgers, but he still has not signed with the Steelers.
While they wait for Rodgers, the Steelers have been evaluating potential college quarterback targets in the upcoming NFL draft. So, I’m using some of those same philosophical parameters laid out in that original article and taking a look at the rookie quarterbacks who the Steelers have either looked at or have been linked to in other ways. That includes Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders, Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart, Alabama QB Jalen Milroe, Louisville QB Tyler Shough, Ohio State QB Will Howard, and Syracuse QB Kyle McCord.
For a quick refresher, I’m looking at three main areas: How well these quarterbacks throw the deep ball, play-action usage, and turnovers.
DEEP SHOTS GALORE
Everyone loves a pretty deep ball, especially Steelers wide receivers George Pickens, DK Metcalf, and Calvin Austin III. The Steelers had the league’s best deep-ball thrower by completion percentage last season in QB Russell Wilson. While offensive coordinator Arthur Smith isn’t running a Madden-style Four Verts offense, he does want to stretch the field vertically.
How do these quarterbacks fare when throwing the ball 20+ yards down the field? I took a look at their completion percentage, adjusted completion percentage (aimed passes [not throwaways] and drops are factored in), and interceptions thrown.
Both Will Howard and Kyle McCord were among the very best quarterbacks in the nation at the FBS level with at least 100 passing attempts in terms of completing deep throws. Shedeur Sanders was also up there, and he didn’t throw a single interception on passes thrown down the field.
Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe were fairly close, still among the top half of quarterbacks in the nation in terms of both regular and adjusted completion percentage. Milroe saw nearly a six percent increase from regular to adjusted completion percentage, while Dart saw almost a five percent increase. But Dart threw four interceptions on deep passes, one of the worst in the nation. McCord, Milroe, and Tyler Shough all threw three.
And Shough was in the bottom half of the quarterback group for both regular and adjusted completion percentage.
PLAY ACTION
Play action is a staple of Arthur Smith’s offense, no matter where he’s coached. During Justin Fields’ time as the Steelers’ quarterback, the team utilized play action on 31.5 percent of his passing attempts, the fifth-highest mark in the league. Oddly enough, Wilson only used play action on 24.6 percent of his dropbacks, 22nd-most in the league. It may be reading into it a bit, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Smith would call more along the lines of Fields’ usage for a rookie quarterback this year or next.
Out of well over 100 quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes in 2024, Jaxson Dart used play action at the third-highest rate in the nation. Out of the six quarterbacks profiled, he was the only one to use it over 50 percent of the time. Shough wasn’t too far behind, clocking in at 44.1 percent. Howard was the only other quarterback of the six over 30 percent, and his was barely under 40. Kyle McCord, Milroe, and Sanders were all between 20 and 30 percent.
As for completion percentage, four of the six were top 15 in the country when attempting play action. Perhaps the most interesting situation was Milroe. He was nearly at the bottom of the country in usage while cracking the top 10 in completion percentage. And when he attempted passes using play action, his completion percentage jumped up 13.1 percent. That’s a top-15 improvement in the country.
Perhaps Milroe would have an even better career in Alabama if they leaned into play action more. And head coach Mike Tomlin, along with other members of the Steelers’ brain trust, had dinner with Milroe ahead of Alabama’s Pro Day. There are certainly links between the Steelers and Milroe. Whether those links will lead to the Steelers calling his name during the 2025 NFL Draft or not remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, neither Shough nor McCord fared all that well compared to the rest of the nation when it came to successfully throwing on play-action calls.
TURNOVERS
I saved the best (or at least what matters to Tomlin the most) for last: turnovers. Or, more accurately, interceptions. We know that Tomlin wants to avoid turnovers at all costs. He never wants to put his defense in a bad spot courtesy of a turnover. So how do these six quarterbacks stack up?
Both Dart and Shough were among some of the best at not turning the football over via interceptions. And Dart, Shough, and Sanders all threw interceptions on less than two percent of all passing attempts. Sanders and Shough both had turnover-worthy plays on less than two percent of their passing attempts per PFF. Dart and Milroe weren’t far behind in terms of the turnover-worthy plays, though Milroe was the only quarterback who threw an interception on over three percent of his passing attempts.
McCord had 12 interceptions in 2024 which ranked among the top five in the nation. And his percentage of turnover-worthy plays was 3.6 percent, the highest among the six quarterbacks.
FINAL THOUGHTS
When I look at these three areas, a few things pop out for me. Kyle McCord was one of the best deep-ball throwers in the nation last season, but he wasn’t very good using play action and he was fairly risky with his throws. He had a great season at Syracuse, but the turnovers could flag him in Mike Tomlin’s mind.
Shedeur Sanders did not utilize play action very much, but he was successful when he did. He was also quite good at throwing down the field and generally was good at protecting the ball. Only Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough threw fewer interceptions than him, but he had the lowest turnover-worthy plays according to PFF.
Will Howard is an intriguing name because of how well he executes both the deep ball and play action. However, he was the only other quarterback of the six to have at least three percent of his passes result in a turnover-worthy play. He could be a sneaky option based on his other numbers.
There is still plenty to be decided before the NFL draft. Will Aaron Rodgers sign? And if he does, will that affect the Steelers’ draft strategy? Only time will tell.
