Is T.J. Watt worth $40-plus million for the Steelers?
The fact that T.J. Watt posted a picture on Instagram caused a stir among Steelers fans, and even beyond. Giving a “peace” sign—as a possible sign of departure—some interpreted this to be related to contract negotiations. While many are prone to over-analysis of mundane things, some reporters have followed up and indicated that there are some rumblings about that very thing.
Not that it should be any cause for concern. The last time the Steelers signed T.J. Watt to an extension, it came at the last minute. When you’re negotiating at the very top of the market, things can take some time.
This isn’t about whether or not Watt and the Steelers will get something done, in other words. Rather, it’s about whether it should happen, and at what part of the market. Watt will turn 31 years old later this year, and he had “merely” a second-team All-Pro season in 2024. So what is the price tag for that, relative to others?
Of course, the Browns reset the market by giving Myles Garrett a $40 million APY extension. What people don’t talk about, though, is that Garrett still had two years left on his deal. The Steelers only have T.J. Watt under contract through the 2025 season, so the numbers can be interpreted differently. Garrett got $40 million per year in new money, but that doesn’t hit until 2027. For the next two years, he is playing off a contract worth $25 million APY.
Watt has one year left on a $28 million APY deal with the Steelers, so a three-year, $120 million extension would look different. When you figure out the cash flow over the length of the deal, you can fudge the numbers. Garrett won’t see $76 million of his deal until 2029 and 2030, for example. Will the Browns want to pay him that by then? He has nothing guaranteed beyond the 2027 season.
But back to us. Garrett reset the market to $40 million APY in new money. Should the Steelers view T.J. Watt as worth that? I think it’s a given that Watt believes he is worth that, at least if Garrett is. The Steelers did this to themselves by not jumping on an extension early. Now they have a tough choice to make—at least for those on the outside. In the long run, I don’t see any complications in their finishing this deal.
The Steelers’ 2024 season has come to its predictably inauspicious end, with yet another one-and-done postseason for HC Mike Tomlin. The offense faltered, and the defense matched it blow for blow, leading to a 21-0 first-half deficit.
Just like last year, the biggest question hanging over the Steelers is the quarterback question. There are other major decisions to make, as well, such as what to do with George Pickens. Do you sign him to an extension, try to trade him, or let him play out his rookie contract?
The Steelers started the 2024 season 10-3, with Mike Tomlin in the Coach of the Year conversation. Wash, rinse, and repeat, and we have another late-season collapse. This may be the worst yet, a four-game losing streak presaging a one-and-done playoff “run”. Welcome to Steelers football.
