From now until the 2025 NFL Draft, we will scout and create profiles for as many prospects as possible, examining their strengths, weaknesses, and what they can bring to an NFL franchise. These players could be potential top-10 picks, down to Day 3 selections, and priority undrafted free agents. Today, a scouting report on Texas Tech wide receiver Josh Kelly.
No. 3 JOSH KELLY/WR TEXAS TECH – 6005, 186 POUNDS (6TH-YEAR SENIOR)
Measurements
| Player | Ht/Wt | Hand Size | Arm Length | Wingspan |
| Josh Kelly | 6005/186 | 10 1/2 | 30 7/8 | 76 5/8 |
| 40-Yard Dash | 10-Yard Dash | Short Shuttle | 3-Cone | |
| 4.70 | 1.56 | N/A | 7.02 | |
| Broad Jump | Vertical | Bench Press | ||
| 10’1″ | 33 | N/A |
THE GOOD
– Gives strong effort as a run blocker
– Wins over the middle vs linebackers
– Fights for extra yards after the catch
– Good vision as a ball carrier
– Strong hands
– Makes contested catches down the field
THE BAD
– Low physicality down the field
– Physical defensive backs will be able to collide and run with him
– Slot only due to inability to win outside vs press
– Play speed is worrisome
– Looks like he is moving in slow motion
– Slow vertical speed
– Defensive backs are not threatened by him vertically
– Not a sharp route runner
– Gives up on routes when not targeted out of break
– Lacks explosion out of breaks on all types of routes
– Fails to break tackles due to low play strength
– Lacks IQ vs zone coverage
– Limited route tree
– Tested poorly
– Older age, will be 24
BIO
– Started 12 games across 1 year at Texas Tech. Transferred from Washington State, where he played 1 year and started all 12 games. Before Washington State, he transferred from Fresno State, where he started 16 games across 4 years
– 2024: 89 receptions for 1,023 yards and 5 touchdowns
– Ranked 7th in receptions per game in the country
– Led the FBS in third-down receptions with 32
– Selected to All-Big 12 Second team
– 2023: 61 receptions for 923 yards and 8 touchdowns
– Led Cougars in receiving yards and touchdowns in an offense that ranked 4th nationally with 336.8 passing yards per game
– 2022: injury-riddled season, only started 4 games and recorded 12 receptions for 207 yards
– 2021: 52 receptions for 778 yards and 3 touchdowns
– Named All-Mountain West Honorable Mention
– Three-star prospect out of San Joaquin Memorial High School in Fresno, California
– Named Second-Team All-State as a senior
– Also played cornerback and had 10 interceptions
– Led his team to a Division 2-A championship game
– Kelly chose to stay in Fresno to be close to family, although he had better offers from other schools
TAPE BREAKDOWN
Josh Kelly has been in college for a while and has been productive everywhere he has been. Unfortunately, I see him as a solid college receiver who will struggle to translate to the NFL. To start, his athletic ability is worrisome, especially his speed down the field.
When I saw his 40 time, I was interested to see if that was how he looked on the field. The tape I watched confirmed his time, as it looks like he is moving in slow motion on some plays. Defenders are not scared of him vertically because they know they will be able to run with him. Against Arizona State, he ran 3 slot fades. Each time, the same thing happened. The defender would just stay on him and trail him down the field, and Kelly had no chance to win.
Out of breaks, he does not have the explosiveness to gain speed on defenders. He does not get low enough, and his feet do not have the power to burst out of his break. He will lose speed on all routes and allow defenders to catch up with him. Kelly also lacks detail in his route running, taking a lot of rounded cuts instead of sharp breaks that will move a defender. His best route is a slant from the slot, but it is a problem when many of his routes have the same rounded cut he makes on a slant. This shows laziness; after being in college for six years, he should be a more polished route runner.
There are also some routes where I do not know what he is supposed to be running, which is a huge problem for the quarterbacks’ eyes. On this play in the slot at the top of the screen, he takes a vertical release that looks like he is running a dig, but the angle of departure and the way he cuts make me confused, which speaks to the lack of detail.
Vs zone coverage, he does not understand soft spots well and just runs where he is supposed to. If he has a dig and there are linebackers at ten yards, he will run right in front of them, making himself covered instead of taking a few more yards to get behind them and find a soft spot. I do not know if this was coaching or his decision-making, but that is what good zone receivers do in the NFL.
Vs man coverage, he does not have the physicality to play vs strong coverage. 99% of his reps are taken from the slot due to his weak play strength vs press, and defenders will move him out of the way with a quick punch and affect his track. It seems easy for defensive backs to get a collision and stay on his hip throughout the play. This is a huge red flag for slot-only receivers, who will often be faced with heavy hands from defenders down the field. He has no chance of winning in this play because the defender had a good collision with him.
On a similar play at the top of the screen, where he has a corner route in a smash concept, he could give a fake inside and beat the safety to the sideline. But he takes an odd angle and gives a head fake 3 yards down the field vs. an off-man defender, which is a confusing decision. Then, his low strength shows up again, and he gets shoved to the ground on a play where he is targeted.
When he does not get the ball out of his break, he becomes lazy down the field and does not help his quarterback in the scramble drill. At the top of the screen, it looks confusing as to what route he is running again. He gives up after being contacted, and his quarterback leaves the pocket.
Kelly has many flaws, but some of his positives include his high effort as a blocker. While he does not have the play strength to move defenders consistently, the effort is always there. When the ball gets in his hands, he shows good vision to maneuver around muddy holes and create yards after the catch. He does not break tackles, but he sneakily moves around behind blockers on screens to create explosives.
He will always fight for an extra couple of yards when he is about to be tackled. Down the field, he has strong hands and shows that he can win contested catches down the field. He can adjust his body in mid-air and make acrobatic catches. When he is 1v1, he will high-point the football to make strong catches. Here, he makes a spectacular catch in a group of 3 defenders.
CONCLUSION
Josh Kelly does not have the skills to be an impactful player in the NFL. He needs to drastically improve his athletic ability, physicality, play strength, and route running to make a team and be a strong backup. He has some positive traits, including his blocking, savvy YAC ability, and contested catch ability.
But even then, he does not break tackles and is only 6 feet, so how many contested catches is he really going to be making? He is a slot-only player due to his inability to win on the outside vs. press, and he does not react well to any hands from defenders. If he were a younger prospect, I could take a chance in the 7th round, but his age makes me believe his ceiling has been reached. My comp for him is Keevan Lucas.
Projection: Late Day 3
Depot Draft Grade: 6.0 – Priority Free Agent (Undrafted Free Agent)
Games Watched: vs Arizona State (2024), vs Baylor (2024), at Iowa State (2024)
