Many stones are turning for the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2025, including the running back position. Najee Harris has moved on, signing with the LA Chargers. The Steelers placed the second-round tender on RB Jaylen Warren, the clear lead back for 2025 on paper.
Pittsburgh signed RB Kenneth Gainwell, another addition from the reigning champion Philadelphia Eagles. The Steelers could still draft a running back in late April as well. Today’s goal is to check some 2024 Gainwell stats, compare that to Harris and Warren for context, and see what it could mean for the upcoming season.
First, here are some 2024 baseline rushing stats for Harris, Warren, and Gainwell:
Harris: 263 attempts, 1,043 yards, 4.0 yards/attempt, six TDs.
Warren: 120 attempts, 511 yards, 4.3 yards/attempt, one TD.
Gainwell: 75 attempts, 290 yards, 3.9 yards/attempt, one TD.
It is not awe-inspiring, from a volume or quality regard. Of course, Kenneth Gainwell played behind the league’s leading rusher in Saquon Barkley and arguably the best o-line to boot. The lack of quantity makes sense, but why was his rushing success lacking?
Looking at Sports Info Solutions (SIS) hit at the line and positive rush rates (positive EPA/successful play) reveals some unexpected context:
First, the three players in our sights were hit at the line at an alarming rate. This includes Kenneth Gainwell, at 49.3 percent, eighth-most out of 54 qualifiers (min. 75 attempts). The result was paltry, ranking dead last with a 28.0 positive rate. This was over five percent worse than all of his peers as well. Ouch.
It’s quite discouraging to learn, considering Pittsburgh’s offensive line isn’t Philadelphia’s, along with Kenneth Gainwell’s inability to make something happen on the ground. In comparison, Harris was hit at the line even more – 50.6 percent (T-fourth most) but was able to muster a 35.7 positive rate (ninth-worst).
Warren had the only above-the-mean result—a 44.2 positive rate (T-17th). While it was the least of the three focused players, Warren achieved this with a 47.5 hit at the line rate (12th-most). Here’s to hoping Warren can continue this value while all the above makes it less expected for Kenneth Gainwell.
Another important facet of play at the position is receiving. Using Pro Football Focus (PFF), I wanted to look at behind-the-line passing, considering that’s where most RBs get their targets (including Pittsburgh). Here are receiving grades and yards/attempt (YPA) in the situation:
Here, we see both current Steelers land on the top right in the behind-the-line (BLOS) passing stats. Kenneth Gainwell fared best last season, with a 92.7 receiving grade, which tied for 13th out of 51 RBs (min. ten behind-the-line targets). Paired with an 8.6 YPA number ranked eighth-best, getting the ball to Gainwell in space as a receiver could be his biggest 2025 impact.
Warren is also talented in this regard, with above average 90.3 BLOS receiving grade (29th), and 7.3 YPA (18th). Harris had a better 7.9 YPA (14th), but had a well below average 71.3 receiving grade, which was eighth-worst. 2024 was definitely a down receiving year for Harris, including 4-of-5 drops on behind-the-line targets, while Gainwell had zero on all targets.
While Kenneth Gainwell didn’t get near the BLOS receiving volume (ten targets to Harris’ 46), he and Warren will hopefully provide better quality in 2025. The stats make it clear that’s less realistic from Gainwell as a rusher.
As stated earlier, his addition by no means keeps Pittsburgh from drafting the position. If so, body type and style will be fascinating to monitor, with several prospects available that could seemingly bolster Pittsburgh’s run game.
One thing’s for sure: a positive trend in the Steelers’ backfield is hopefully in store for 2025 and needed.
