Every team has a slightly different draft strategy, but there are also overarching trends from year to year that drive decisions. There are competing forces when it comes to the running back class this year. On the positive side of their value, running backs were one of the big stories of the 2024 season with Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs, and Saquon Barkley all finding success with their new teams. On the negative side of their value, this draft class is absolutely loaded with talent.
I have seen notable former scouts and talent evaluators have as many as 30 to 35 draftable grades on running backs this year. By simple supply and demand economics, that drives their value down.
“There’s so many running backs now that you should [be able to] get one in any round,” one personnel executive told Bob McGinn for his draft series on Go Long substack. “People value other positions more than running backs. You look at all these guys, you can get them all in the fourth, fifth round if you need one.”
Ashton Jeanty stands above the rest as a running back teams will be competing for in the first round. Otherwise, it should be interesting to see how many teams play the waiting game. According to McGinn, a team source told him they view there being 11 NFL starters in this class.
“With it being so deep in the third to 11 range, you’re not going to take the third guy if you value the 11th guy in that same threshold,” one AFC evaluator told McGinn. “You can get a guy later.”
Therein lies the problem with an embarrassment of riches at the running back position. If a team has a need at running back, but it also has a need at a position with less depth, like wide receiver or safety, then it might make sense to wait on running back. If that decision happens over and over again with multiple teams at scale, then you end up with starting-caliber players in the fourth or fifth round of the draft.
Evaluation is already an inexact science, and different teams are looking for different things in the position. Some teams may not need an all-around back and just want an elite speedster who can break the big run. Other teams already have third-down backs and might need a big body that can handle early-down work.
You could argue the Steelers fall in either boat. They could draft a speedster and make Jaylen Warren the feature back, or they can draft a big body and keep Warren and Kenneth Gainwell in a change-of-pace role.
One look at their pre-draft visit list so far shows that they are considering both sides of that equation, but they seem to be favoring the guys with elite speed other than Ollie Gordon II.
“You’re going to get a really good player maybe even Day 3 because there’s so many good ones this year,” an NFC scout told McGinn. “This is a really, really good group.”
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Gerry Dulac reported that he’s been told not to discount the possibility of the Steelers drafting a running back in the first round. To me, that would be a massive mistake. Take advantage of the depth of this class and take a player at a more valuable and scarce position. Unless Ashton Jeanty makes it to No. 21, it’s probably best to circle back in the third, fourth, or even fifth round.
