The more things change, the more they stay the same. Despite an offseason featuring plenty of roster changes and a Pittsburgh Steelers team that remains without a clear starting quarterback, their 2025 win projection looks like the 2024 version. And the 2023, 2022, 2021 editions. Per ESPN Bet, the over/under on the Steelers’ win total this season sits at 8.5.
That is tied for eighth in the AFC and third in the AFC North.
The projection reflects a stagnant franchise, one not moving forward or backward. In 2024, their projection moved to 8.5 after being initially posited at 7.5. And in 2023, 8.5 was the go-to figure throughout the offseason. The last time it was different came in 2022 at 7.5 wins thanks to uncertainty over how the team would perform following Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement.
Each year, Pittsburgh beats those marks. They’ve yet to get over the hump and win a playoff game but surpass regular-season odds, Mike Tomlin winning at least eight games every year during his Steelers tenure.
It will be a vastly different-looking roster come September. Not only are the Steelers turning over their quarterback room for the second-straight season, they’re losing over 5,000 combined offensive and defensive snaps from a year ago. Notable 2024 contributors like RB Najee Harris, DL Larry Ogunjobi, CB Donte Jackson, and OT Dan Moore Jr. have signed elsewhere.
At quarterback, the team brought back Mason Rudolph after a year in Tennessee and is the odds-on favorite to sign Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers also made a splash trade for WR DK Metcalf while landing CB Darius Slay in free agency.
Pittsburgh is a clear third in AFC North odds. In separate odds from ESPN Bet, the Steelers are just +500 to win the division, trailing the Baltimore Ravens (-130) and Cincinnati Bengals (+225). The Cleveland Browns are a distant fourth at +2500. The Steelers’ Super Bowl odds remain the same and incredibly long at +5000.
Pittsburgh hasn’t won the AFC North since 2020, its longest drought since a seven-year stint from 1985-1991. Last year, the Steelers controlled the division for most of the season before a four-game regular-season losing streak opened the door for the Ravens to capture the North.
The Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Ravens tied for the highest AFC win totals at 11.5 each. The Philadelphia Eagles lead the NFC, also at 11.5. The New York Giants and Browns round out each conference.
Odds will be updated throughout the offseason. Chances are the Steelers’ total won’t move much no matter who they add the rest of the way.
