The compensatory pick formula is complicated and an inexact science even to the teams that are trying to exploit it. That’s because it factors in contract size and incentives, the latter of which is linked to playing time and performance, which are impossible to predict. But when it comes to league outsiders who study the formula, there is nobody better than Over The Cap’s Nick Korte. He initially projected that Russell Wilson’s new contract could fetch as high as a third-round pick for the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2026 but has now corrected that statement after seeing contract details.
“I’ve been informed that I had the LTBE/NLTBE breakdown on Russell Wilson all wrong & it’s only going to start w/his $10.5M base APY,” Korte wrote. “So start w/a presumption of a 5th round compensatory pick valued contract, maybe revise up to a 4th if he plays/wins a little, w/a 3rd daunting.”
LTBE stands for “likely to be earned” while NLTBE is “not likely to be earned,” which would indicate that Wilson’s incentive structure fell more under the not likely to be earned category. The vast majority of NLTBE incentives aren’t reached, though they are of course possible.
SI’s Stephen Douglas published the framework of Wilson’s incentives with the New York Giants this morning. If he starts the full season, he will hit all of the playing time incentives barring an injury. The performance incentives are a mixed bag. There is $500k for a passer rating above 96.0, which is something he has only done in one of the last three seasons, not including last year with the Steelers. He probably isn’t likely to hit $250k for 30-plus touchdowns either.
Then there are incentives linked to team success. Keep in mind the Giants were among the worst teams in football last year. They would need to make the playoffs and win multiple playoff games for Wilson to cash in on the full incentive structure.
His base salary of $10.5 million should be a fifth-round compensatory pick. It seems fairly likely that he will hit enough incentives to raise that to a fourth but is nearly impossible for him to hit every incentive to raise it all the way up to a third rounder. Wilson would have to have a borderline All-Pro season to make that happen.
The most likely outcome is the Steelers having a third, two fourths and a sixth-round comp pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, though one of those fourths could wind up being a fifth if Wilson gets injured or otherwise does not play well. The Giants could select a quarterback in the first round of this upcoming draft, which would further complicate matters for the Steelers’ compensatory value.
