Russell Wilson officially won’t be returning to the Pittsburgh Steelers, signing a one-year deal with the New York Giants. But he can still help out his old team. Wilson’s deal with New York is one year with $10.5 million guaranteed. The other half of the contract is incentive-based, allowing him to earn up to $21 million for 2025. From a cap perspective, it’s still low-end quarterback money, but a big step up the same.
For Pittsburgh’s sake, they hope Wilson reaches every one of those goals. Over the Cap’s Nick Korte, the expert on all things compensatory formula-related, released his initial projection for what this will net the Steelers as a “lost” free agent (despite the team having seemingly zero interest in retaining him). Per Korte, Wilson’s contract should provide, at minimum, fifth-round compensatory value. But should he reach all his incentives and make the full $21 million, it could become a third.
If that occurs, Pittsburgh could end up with a pair of third-round compensatory selections for the 2026 NFL Draft. One for Russell Wilson, the other for OT Dan Moore Jr., who cashed in with an $82 million contract with Tennessee. Pittsburgh is also projected to receive a fourth-round selection for QB Justin Fields, leaving for the New York Jets, and a sixth-rounder for OG James Daniels’ departure to the Miami Dolphins. The maximum compensatory picks any team can earn in a single draft is four.
It seems the cut-off for a third or fourth-rounder sits at $20 and $21 million, given that Fields’ average yearly value is $20 million and Wilson can potentially make $21 million. Indeed, Moore’s average yearly value is $21 million and still projects out as a third, per Korte’s chart.
Presumably, Russell Wilson can also earn between $10.5 and $21 million, making a fourth-round compensatory selection possible and, frankly, more realistic. As of now, we don’t know his incentive structure.
In fact, a foll0w-up tweet from Korte paints a possibility of Pittsburgh landing three third round-comp picks for Moore, Wilson, and Fields should they all max out playing time and incentives. Which, per Korte, would probably be a record.
This projection comes with its usual disclaimers. Russell Wilson’s playing time is also a factor in the comp formula, and any qualifying signings the Steelers make during the compensatory window, which ends on Monday following the draft, could negate one of their current projections. Nothing will be finalized until after the season, and the league won’t release its official compensatory selections until next March.
But the Steelers are shaping up to have a heck of a haul of comp picks in the 2026 NFL Draft, which will be held in Pittsburgh for the first time since 1947. The organization could be looking to make an aggressive trade-up for a quarterback with the draft capital to make it happen.
