Dobbs’ 2016 3rd Down Incompletion Study Reveals Interesting Data

I have now completed my 2016 third down incompletion study of new Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Joshua Dobbs and while several might have viewed it as me picking on the teams fourth-round draft pick out of Tennessee, the results show that the in-depth look was not only warranted, it also played into his favor.

For starters, my biggest takeaway after examining 51 of Dobbs’ incompleted third down passes from the 2016 season is the fact that he didn’t get much help from his intended receivers. In short, roughly 26% of Dobbs’ 2016 third down incompletions can be argued as being catchable passes. Sure, some were more catchable than others due to accuracy, but if you watched all of the videos, you know several were just plain awful drops. In my opinion, this is a good sign overall.

In eight other Dobbs’ third down incompetitions from 2016 you can strongly argue that there was some sort of miscommunication or failed assignment by the intended target and those plays weren’t very hard to pick out. Things like receivers stopping their routes, falling down, turning routes up too early and getting beat to spots are just a few arguments that can be made when it comes to issuing blame. Unfortunately for us, however, we’ll never know for sure where to place the blame in several of those instances.

A few of Dobbs’ other third down incompetitions were on throws that were too high with a few coming via screen plays while a few more coming after the quarterback had scrambled and was on the run.

It’s worth noting that 18 of Dobbs’ third down incompletions from the 2016 season came on plays when his offense needed 10 yards or more. On 12 of those, the Tennessee offense needed 13 or more yards, which is a daunting task for any college quarterback, let alone Dobbs. How that percentage compares to other quarterbacks drafted this year I do not know.

Five of Dobbs’ 51 third down incompletions came on throws of 25 or more yards past the original line of scrimmage and four of those were thrown 32 or more yards. That, as you know, is quite a distance. One of those five, by the way, was a very catchable pass, in my honest opinion.

Now, was Dobbs’ perfect with his decision-making on some of his third down incompletions in 2016? Absolutely not, but he probably wasn’t any worse in that area when compared to several of the other top-drafted quarterbacks in this year’s class. There were some mechanic issues like failing to step into throws and throwing off his back foot when under pressure in addition to some lack of touch on a few other throws.

Finally, outside of his targets not helping Dobbs out on third downs last season, the only other glaring thing that caught my eye during this study is how many times the quarterback threw short of the chains, which was 24 of his 51 attempts. Also, 29 of Dobbs’ third down incompletions in 2016 also came with him getting rid of the football in 2.70 or more seconds after it was snapped to him and that’s a lot of time.

In summation, while Dobbs’ third down incompletions from 2016 can be viewed as a negative overall from a percentage standpoint, I came away with a positive feeling about the negative stat after reviewing what actually transpired on those plays as a whole. Sure, none of it will change the fact that he completed just 44.1% of his total third passes in 2016, but it goes without saying that that percentage could have and probably should’ve been much higher.

If you missed any of the posts in this series they are linked below:

Joshua Dobbs’ Low 3rd Down College Completion Rate Warrants Deeper Look
Steelers Tape Study: Joshua Dobbs’ 2016 3rd Down Incompletions – Part 1
Steelers Tape Study: Joshua Dobbs’ 2016 3rd Down Incompletions – Part 2
Steelers Tape Study: Joshua Dobbs’ 2016 3rd Down Incompletions – Part 3
Steelers Tape Study: Joshua Dobbs’ 2016 3rd Down Incompletions – Part 4
Steelers Tape Study: Joshua Dobbs’ 2016 3rd Down Incompletions – Part 5

Dobbs’ 2016 Third Down Incompletion Data