I don’t know how much this is worth to you, or how much it even is to me, but if you’re into projections and predictions, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ playoff hopes are about at a coinflip.
Two different playoff predictions metrics put them at just slightly better than a 50% chance of making the big dance.
Playoffstatus.com gives Pittsburgh a 52% chance of making the Wild Card Round. Their odds, naturally, decrease going any further. 27% chance into the Divisional, 9% into the AFC Championship, and 3% for a Super Bowl appearance.
By comparison though, the Baltimore Ravens only have a 40% chance of making the playoffs aka, winning the AFC North. So that does make the Steelers the favorites of the group.
If you’re curious, the Cincinnati Bengals still have a 12% chance of making the playoffs.
The more well-known 538 has the Steelers at slightly better odds, 55% to make the playoffs which almost entirely stems from them winning the division (a 54% chance). They give the Steelers a 2% chance of making the Super Bowl.
Baltimore’s odds are substantially worse, just a 32% chance of making it. That again puts Pittsburgh as the favorites. The Bengals sit at 15% odds.
For the Steelers, the path might not be easy, but is clear. Win the North. 10-6 should get any team in cleanly while 9-7 could do it with a tiebreaker advantage.
The Ravens are hitting a tougher slate with yesterday’s loss to Dallas, an AFC North showdown with Cincinnati, followed by games against Miami, New England, and Philadelphia. Two losses in those four games are reasonable to expect before they end the year with games against the Steelers and Bengals.
That means, and I know we are getting ahead of ourselves, the Steelers could knock the Ravens out of the playoff picture and sew up the AFC North in their Week 16 meeting. If Baltimore comes in at 7-7 and Pittsburgh even at 8-6, a Steelers’ victory secures them an AFC North berth. To do that at home in front of your fans would be pretty sweet.