The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) are set to host the fellow unbeaten Los Angeles Chargers for the home opener at Acrisure Stadium. Built in a similar mold as the Steelers with new HC Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers’ team success to date has allowed the quarterback position to not have to do too much.
QUARTERBACKS – That could aid Charger Justin Herbert, who is questionable for the contest with a high-ankle sprain. He would be the biggest challenge at the position for Pittsburgh’s defense thus far at full health, but it’s a matchup-altering loss for them if he can’t go.
Let’s look at 2024 quarterbacks’ completion percent above expected (CPAE) and average air distance (AAD):
Here, we see the two quarterbacks in the matchup have above-average completion results. Thankfully, Pittsburgh’s Justin Fields is one of just six quarterbacks to land on the top right, with a 3.6 CPAE (9th) and 21.4 AAD (10th) out of the 32 qualifying QBs.
Rather impressive for Fields and the Steelers offense, which has made some positive strides despite dealing with their own injured QB in Russell Wilson (questionable, calf). Penalties negated some of Fields’ best throws last week, so we saw the potential for an even stronger AAD. The Chargers defense has played well, though, and that battle for Pittsburgh’s pass game could be tough.
Herbert’s 1.1 CPAE ranks 15th but is below the mean in AAD (19.5). That also lands 15th, pointing to the majority of quarterbacks and offenses choosing high-percentage throws over slinging it. As stated earlier, that’s very true for the Chargers thus far.
It could be even more true with Herbert’s injury or if someone is required to step in. Easton Stick has experience backing him up, and they also acquired veteran Taylor Heinicke via a recent trade. I’m very interested to see how this transpires on Sunday.
RUNNING BACKS – Los Angeles has had a solid rushing attack thus far, second in the league with 395 rushing yards through two games. They acquired two former Ravens in J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, so hopefully the familiarity that Pittsburgh’s defense has with them will aid in slowing them down.
Their committee approach has been very even so far (Edwards 29 attempts, Dobbins 27), emphasized by their dot sizes. Their results have been a big difference, with Dobbins having a whopping 9.9 average rushing yards, comfortably leading the 40 qualifying RBs despite an above-the-mean 22.2 8MIB (17th).
Though Dobbins is dynamic, the defenses they’ve faced are not the Steelers. This, along with a larger sample size, will likely bring that number back down to earth. Edwards is more of a bruiser and has faced an outlook high of 27.6 8MIB (11th), important context to his 2.9 ARY (sixth-lowest).
Then we see Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris, the only one in the matchup below-average in each. His 18.9 8MIB ranks 21st, and 3.8 ARY lands 29th. While the success is low, the Steelers have top 10 rushing attempts and time of possession. Harris’ 37 attempts (T-7th) have been a big part of that. Considering his strong resume of rushing success, Jaylen Warren can hopefully bring the lightning after easing back from a hamstring injury.
The Chargers are sixth in rushing attempts, but the linked article found that their time of possession has been quite different (21st). That is a huge key to the game, and hopefully, it will pan out similarly.
OFFENSIVE LINES – The men up front are the driving force for that hope. Los Angeles has assembled a quality group, while Pittsburgh’s investments have led to a shuffling at RT between back-to-back first-round picks (Troy Fautanu, Broderick Jones).
Fautanu was set to make his second start but is questionable after tweaking his knee in Friday’s practice. Unfortunate timing for him, and if he can’t go, Jones would have to play quicker than anticipated after his benching last week.
Here are PFF blocking grades to date:
Both Chargers tackles are above the mean run and pass blockers: LT Rashawn Slater (89.7 PBLK, 75.7 RBLK) and rookie No. 5 pick RT Joe Alt (79.1 PBLK, 74.6 RBLK). Slater’s PBLK is second-best among all offensive linemen through Week 2, and these men have combined to allow just three pressures and one sack. This could look much different against Pittsburgh’s elite EDGE duo in T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, who have combined for 11 pressures and 3 sacks.
The Chargers’ interior comprises LG Zion Johnson, C Bradley Bozeman, and RG Trey Pipkins. The latter has the best-balanced grades of this group, landing at the outlook mean (62.3 PBLK, 68.8 RBLK). They’ve allowed 7 pressures, 3 QB hits and a sack. So, advantage to Pittsburgh’s DL on paper, who have a whopping 21 total pressures, led by Cameron Heyward’s eight, tied for sixth-most at the position league-wide.
Now for Pittsburgh. The best individual grade in the matchup is G James Daniels, with a 90.5 RBLK, the best at his position. Shown a refreshing nastiness there, which will hopefully continue against their DL. Pass blocking has unfortunately been way different (54.7), tying for a team-high 5 pressures and a sack allowed. It was particularly poor last week (39.7), when 4 of the pressures came. Hopefully, it is an outlier performance.
One Steeler is above the mean in both, LT Dan Moore (77.5 PBLK, 74.8 RBLK). He’s started the year off encouragingly well overall, with nice contributions in the run game and just one pressure and no sacks. This has been huge considering Fautanu’s injury status and Jones’ struggles on the other side (62.4 PBLK, 51.8 RBLK), including an inexcusable four penalties (T-second most at OL) that led to his benching.
Fautanu has the final above the mean grade (69.3 PBLK), including 2 pressures allowed, compared to a 59.3 RBLK. I thought his debut last week was better than those grades suggest, though even more true for C Zach Frazier (63.9 RBLK, 58.0 PBLK). Yes, Frazier’s opener was stronger, but continued to display very encouraging skills for a rookie.
G Spencer Anderson has been filling in for the injured Isaac Seumalo (out, pec). The former has the worst-balanced grades (55.0 RBLK, 49.9 PBLK) though. The latter included 5 pressures, 3 hurries, and 2 QB hits that are all team highs. The Chargers will likely try to exploit this matchup, which could loom large if Anderson can’t step it up.
WIDE RECEIVERS – Leading the way for LA are Quentin Johnston and second-round rookie Ladd McConkey with 11 targets each. Let’s look at percent of team’s air yards (TAY) and receiving TDs:
This visual points out the biggest key to any game: scoring points. Johnston is one of 10 wide receivers with an NFL-high 2 touchdowns already, and McConkey is getting his first in the NFL as well. Pittsburgh’s George Pickens has yet to do so despite having the fourth-highest 53.0 TAY through two weeks.
In comparison, Johnston accounts for 38.9 TAY (20th) on 8 catches for 89 yards, while McConkey has 7 catches for 65 yards and an average 29.6 TAY among the 69 qualifying WRs. Pickens’ 8 catches have resulted in 114 yards.
There is no reason to panic, with the Steelers optimistically being able to clean up in terms of penalties. Several stellar plays were negated last week, including a would-be Pickens TD and a much stronger stat line that would have also put him near the top of the league in yardage.
Last week did feature Pittsburgh’s first touchdown, and here’s to hoping for more that includes Pickens this game.
TIGHT ENDS – Steeler Pat Freiermuth has the most targets in the outlook (8), tied for 11th at the position, displaying his reliable hands by catching them all (7th). Stats that stand out in the matchup are PFF receiving grades (REC) and first down rates (FDR):
LAs Will Dissly lands on the top right, featuring PFFs best 86.8 receiving grade out of all 77 targeted tight ends this season. Caught all 4 of his targets for 42 yards, and his 75.0 FDR ranks fourth-best. It has a small sample size, but it has provided chain-moving plays that Pittsburgh’s defense can hopefully limit.
Freiermuth and Darnell Washington also land above the mean in both. Each have a 50.0 FDR (T-11th), with Washington’s success coming on last weeks aforementioned and encouraging TD (the only one in the outlook). This aided his team high 67.1 REC (15th), and hope he continues to see action in the pass game. Freiermuth’s 64.3 REC ranks 20th. Expect him to stay highly involved with a fingers-crossed impact game.
The rest of the group has been below average. Next best FDR is Hayden Hurst (20.0), tying for 41st. He’s their most targeted (five), but has only three catches for 38 yards, just one first down, and a 48.3 REC (62nd) that is worse than all Steelers. MyCole Pruitt (out-knee) is Pittsburgh’s lowest 49.9 REC, catching one of two targets for nine yards, with no first downs.
Chargers Eric Tomlinson is their third qualifier. He has no catches on his lone target, a contested opportunity. Freiermuth is the only one in the matchup with a contested catch, which could occur again with the physical nature of both teams.
DEFENSES – Both teams have played extremely well on this side of the ball overall, ranking first and second in points allowed, with LA atop the totem pole. The caveat is neither team has faced the toughest opposition yet. This should be a great litmus test, especially if Pittsburgh’s offense can have their best performance to date.
Let’s look at expected points added (EPA) for pass and run defense:
As expected, the matchup features two of the best defensive units of this young 2024 season. The Chargers’ top-ranked run defense EPA is not what you want to see from Pittsburgh’s lens, limiting the Carolina Panthers and the Las Vegas Raiders, who rank 29th and dead last in rushing yards through Week 2. Pittsburgh’s offense must change that storyline in hopes of victory.
The Chargers’ third-ranked pass defense EPA might make for tough sledding for Pittsburgh against their tough cast, which includes Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the EDGE, S Elijah Molden seemingly playing great so far, LB Daiyan Henley, and DL duo Teair Tart and Poona Ford.
The Steelers rank fourth in each, respectively, and will need to ball out in hopes of victory. Here’s to hoping for just that in their toughest challenge of the 2024 season.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Injury-Reports: Steelers Chargers
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