As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 3 home opener against the Los Angeles Chargers.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Pat Freiermuth Gets Loose Down The Seam
After two quiet weeks with a passing attack more sideline than hash focused, Freiermuth could be in-line for a big game. The Chargers’ defensive structure and lack of a high-end free safety makes the middle of the field a friendlier place to target. At some point, Pittsburgh will need to test it. While George Pickens has shown he’s matchup-proof, other guys have to get involved.
2. Broderick Jones Bounces Back
As much bad mojo as there is around Broderick Jones right now, there’s no time to wallow in it. He’s the starting right tackle for today and the foreseeable future after rookie Troy Fautanu landed on injured reserve with a knee injury. The talent is there for Jones. And he’s shown he can play well. There’s a tough matchup against Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack but a statement game from Jones will ease the pain of Fautanu going down while reminding everyone not to throw in the towel on Jones.
3. Justin Herbert Becomes A Sitting Duck
While Herbert seems likely to play, his effectiveness is a fair question. Is this a Kirk Cousins situation of a quarterback unable to move and offense that has to change its personality, using more pistol and shotgun (in fairness, the Chargers were already using some pistol) to mitigate Herbert’s high ankle sprain?
Will he be able to move the pocket and run away from T.J. Watt and company? Last time the Steelers faced Herbert, his legs were an X-Factor. That might not be the case if he’s out there on one leg.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. J.K. Dobbins Burns Pittsburgh Again
Dobbins has been a tough nut for Pittsburgh to crack. Though injuries have made for infrequent appearances against the Steelers, he’s averaging nearly seven yards per carry in the two games against them. That includes a 15 carry, 120-yard, one touchdown game against the team in 2022.
Pittsburgh’s run defense and front seven is sturdy and stout but Dobbins is one crack away from busting a big run. And he’s a red hot runner, rushing for over 130 yards in each of his two weeks of the season.
2. O-Line Can’t Handle Stunts
No offensive game plan wants to be in third and long. But you especially don’t want to do it against the Chargers. That’s when Bosa and Mack can pin their ears back and go to work. And the scheme becomes more chaotic, aligning three linemen to a side and running twists and stunts off it. Pittsburgh benefits from being at home but that only makes the task slightly easier. The Chargers could test this ever-changing Steelers’ front five. Justin Fields can’t run away from everyone.
3. Chargers Offense Shows Enough Depth
Pittsburgh does a good job taking away your fastball. Your top skill guys. Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts and Drake London and Denver’s Courtland Sutton, all with muted impacts. One Pitts touchdown was all those guys have gotten. Where the Steelers get into trouble are the teams who have depth and can win with their third/fourth options.
The Chargers aren’t an incredibly deep team at the skill positions but they have good scheme. A guy like Ladd McConkey could be a problem in the slot, something the Steelers haven’t had to face the first two weeks of the year. Rookie CB Beanie Bishop Jr. really hasn’t been tested. This week could change that.
Prediction
Chargers: 20
Steelers: 14
Steelers Season Prediction Record
2-0
